2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will BJP win?


BJP was on a roller coaster ride after anointment of Modi as its PM candidate. He was holding big rallies, drawing huge crowds and topping charts in all surveys. He led BJP to emphatic win in the state assembly elections in Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh which account for 65 Lok Sabha seats. In Delhi though it emerged as the single largest party, lost govt. formation chance to Aam Aadmi Party. Past month or so AAP has caught attention of entire media and thousands of people are joining the party. It has also declared its intentions to stand in 400 Lok Sabha seats.

The entry of AAP seemed to change the scene for BJP at national elections. Questions were raised as to will Aam Aadmi Party ruin BJP’s chances? Will it dent Congress more or BJP more?

The revised projections are out for NDA (BJP + Shiv Sena + Akali Dal). The alliance is expected to win 220 seats (+89) in 2014 up from 131 in 2009 elections. This is also 21 seats higher than 1999 elections where BJP won and formed govt. under Vajpayee. The alliance is expected to improve its performance in all states / union territories except for the state of Karnataka.

NDA is expected to get 182 seats (83% of its total tally is expected from 10 states) as detailed below:

(i) Bihar & Jharkhand: Expected to get 26 seats (+6). There is a sympathy in Bihar for BJP where its long time standing partner Janata Dal (United) ended a 17 year old alliance. Exodus of MPs from JDU and no viable opposition (Lalu lost some credibility after jailed in fodder scam, Paswan has no base left, Congress has no presence) will help BJP. OBCs are in good population (Modi’s caste) will help too. People on ground say they could do much better.

(ii) Gujarat:  Expected to get 21 seats (+5). People will vote for Gujarati asmita (pride) and would like to see their Chief Minister become Prime Minister of the country. May get a few more. No competition here for Modi.

(iii) Karnataka: Expected to get 12 seats (-7). This is the only state where BJP will register a decline. Though after Yeddyurappa has joined back seats will improve but corruption charges against him plus internal party politics will impact BJP.

(iv) Madhya Pradesh & Chhatisgarh: Expected to get 34 seats (+8). Strong performance in state assembly elections where BJP won plus strong local leadership (Chouhan & Raman Singh) and very strong support base will help BJP sweep these two states.

(v) Maharashtra: Expected to get 28 seats (+8). Strong anti-incumbency against central & state UPA leadership and corruption scandals in state will help BJP and its ally Shiv Sena perform better. AAP could dent a few seats here though.

(vi) Punjab: Expected to get 10 seats (+5). Anti-incumbency against UPA will work to the advantage of BJP. Its ally Akali Dal has come back in power for 2nd consecutive term. Plus some Congress MPs like spokespersons Manish Tewari are on very weak wicket.

(vii) Rajasthan: Expected to get 21 seats (+17). BJP will ride on its stupendous perfrmance in state elections (where it won >80% seats) and will sweep the state. Modi is a big factor here.

(viii) Uttar Pradesh & Uttarakhand: Expected to get 34 seats (+24). In UP the most crucial state, Samajwadi Party’s position has weakened post Muzaffarnagar riots. There is polarisation of Hindu votes happening on the ground plus Modi’s OBC factor will play a big role here. Bahujan Samaj Party’s refusal to ally with Congress will also help. Four cornered contests are always difficult to predict. Congress might also benefit as minority votes swing from SP towards it. All in all complex state. BJP expected to bag 30 seats (+20). In Uttarakhand BJP will sweep due to poor handling of flood situation and in-fighting in Congress (Rawat vs Bahuguna). It may be noted that BJP got 29 seats in 1999 and still formed the govt. so a 50-60 seats though desirable is not necessary to form govt. at the center.

Modi wave is evident across all states even after AAP surge as Modi ahead in race for PM in surveys. These 10 states where BJP expected to do very well are part of predominantly Hindi speaking belt (except perhaps Karnataka) where he is even more popular. AAP doesn’t seem to be hitting BJP very adversely. Except for a few seats in Delhi, Maharashtra and Haryana. Almost nil presence in UP and Bihar plus no rural base will hurt AAP and is helping BJP. People also seem to be in a mood to give as far as possible a clear mandate. A lot of AAP supporters in Delhi have already given their support for Modi in national elections. In plain words AAP is not seen by many to be an alternative to BJP to take on Congress at the center. People sympathize with them but want them to perform first. First deserve then desire.

In South India too BJP is expected to make debut in Kerala plus it could bag 3 seats in T. Nadu. N. eastern states would still remain Congress / regional parties stronghold.

What do you esteemed readers feel? Please pour in your comments. eagerly waiting…..

State / UT Seats 1999A 2009A 2014P
Andhra Pradesh 42 7 0 3
Arunachal Pradesh 2 0 0 1
Assam 14 2 4 5
Bihar 40 23 12 16
Jharkhand 14 8 10
Goa 2 2 1 2
Gujarat 26 20 15 21
Haryana 10 5 0 5
Himachal Pradesh 4 3 3 3
Jammu & Kashmir 6 2 0 1
Karnataka 28 7 19 12
Kerala 20 0 0 1
Madhya Pradesh 29 29 16 24
Chattisgarh 11 10 10
Maharashtra 48 28 20 28
Manipur 2 0 0 0
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0
Mizoram 1 0 0 0
Nagaland 1 0 0 0
Orissa 21 9 0 3
Punjab 13 3 5 10
Rajasthan 25 16 4 21
Sikkim 1 0 0 0
Tamil Nadu 39 4 0 3
Tripura 2 0 0 0
UP 80 29 10 30
Uttarakhand 5 0 4
West Bengal 42 2 1 1
Andaman 1 1 1 1
Daman & Diu 1 0 1 1
Dadra&Nagar 1 0 1 1
Delhi 7 7 0 3
Pondicherry 1 0 0 0
Lakshadweep 1 0 0 0
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0
Total 543 199 131 220

A: Actual, P: Projected

Seats of BJP + Akali Dal + Shiv Sena have been compared across the period as they comprise of the current NDA.

Revised Latest Projections

These projections have been revised on 20th Mar. 2013 and NDA is expected to get 230 seats. Link below:

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/03/21/how-many-seats-will-bjp-get-revised/

Poll

 

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237 thoughts on “2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will BJP win?

  1. assam rally was the biggest every rally done in assam- that is historic- i was watching a asamia tv- all cong leaders are panicking after seeing this turn out- he even made fun of tarun gagoi in his den and ppl clapping that shows the silent wave- 11th orissa rally- it again can be the biggest rally in hisory of odisha- ppl coming fr diff places in capital -like tarun he had to attack navin- this two state bjp has presence- but one extra push frm namo – bjp can achieve stunning result !!

    1. Bjp rallies are like christian prayer meetings. They select a place. Invite all friends there. So even in deep forest thousands of people are found. If you beleive in there?

  2. this is my prediction – after seeing all drama of aap and hopeless congress
    up- 50
    bih-25
    jhk-11
    chht-10
    guj-23
    raj-23
    mad-26
    kar- 13
    tam-2
    ap-2 (if tdp alliance happen)
    wb-1
    mah-17
    ori-4
    assm-6
    del-5
    har-5
    utta-5
    him-4
    pun-3
    goa-2
    jammu-2
    arunachal- 1
    manipur-1
    and 4 union teritory.
    =245 (bjp alone) possible . cong will loose badly 75-80) aap max- 3 sets if they are not do any drama ..

    1. your calculations right and mybe even more if karnataka results improve…..me from karnataka and dont agree with 13. atleast 16 we expect

    2. You are right. I want to say you b.j.p win two seat in andhra without alliance 1.visakhapattnam 2.karimganj
      you may wrong about manipur thanks

    3. this is my prediction – after seeing all drama of aap and hopeless congress
      up- 55
      bih-32
      jhk-11
      chht-10
      guj-23
      raj-24
      mad-27
      kar- 20
      tam-10
      ap-20 (Because tdp alliance happen)
      wb-2
      mah-35
      ori-10
      assm-6
      del-7
      har-7
      utta-5
      him-4
      pun-8
      goa-2
      jammu-2
      arunachal- 2
      manipur-1
      and 4 union teritory.
      =327 possible . cong will loose badly 75-80) aap max- 1 sets if they are not do any drama ..

      1. Hi all friend,joy and kuldeep my prediction for bhp
        A&microbar 0
        Arunachal 0
        Assam 5
        Ap 3
        Bihar 23
        Chandigarh 1
        Cg 9
        Delhi 5
        Hp 4
        Haryana 6
        Jharkhand 10
        J&k 2
        Goa 2
        Karnataka 16
        Gujrat 23
        Kerala 2 (can possible)
        Mp 24
        Mizoram 0
        Manipur 0
        Meghalay 0
        Odisha 4
        Mh 19
        Naga lend 0
        Punjab 2
        Puducherry 0
        RJ 22
        Sikkim 0
        Tamilnadu 2
        Tripura 0
        Up 53
        Ut 4
        Wb 2
        Dadra & n haveli 1
        Daman & diu 1
        Laxhadeep 1

      2. Total 246 (bjp today )
        If bjp can well bjp can reach 270 max.
        Please tell about my two prediction

  3. I wish only that bjp getting minimum 240 seats individual then after traying to making government with n.d.a…my best wishes with bjp & also modi+modify

  4. This Loksabha will see the Congress going out with less tahn 100 seats. In Ap, it may see the lowest wins by acting too smart in Parlament. This is called cutting the branch where you are sitting comfortably and falling to dath.

  5. i am from western maharashatra its traditional congress high hold … congress is deeprooted …….. but today even in rural area people determined to uproot congies … I FEEL THIS WAVE WILL CREATE MIRACLE BEYOND IMAGINATION

  6. All Indians don’t See ur own MP’s , castes and relations just Modi as PM so give vote to b.j.p mainly Kerala,andra,west bengal,Tamil Nadu just give ur own votes to bjp that time BJP will win Modi will win India will win

    1. kerela bjp have outside chance on t.puram seat , they working hard on that seat, in tamilnadu bjp has 80% chance to win kanyakumari and coimbatore seats and in wb 1 seat possible and in telanaga 2 seats if they fight alone, if they tie up with trs the can lift that to 4 seats, that realistic prediction for bjp in these states.

    2. Well said Ajeet,voter should be determined like this and not waste thier valuable vote behind non NDA candidates.

  7. New dimention to nda now
    ljp and kusvaha into nda ll increase bjp/nda seats in bihar
    dmdk-pmk-bjp-mdmk
    vck grand alliance in tamil nadu ll increase nda numbers
    severals leaders are joining in bjp jagdembika pall (u.p),malesveri (telengana)…

    on other hand aap /kejriwal companing in gujrat againts bjp may hurt bjp numbers

    only 16 th may shall tell tell the reals numbers for nda now

  8. I feel so disgusted when i think of india due to its collosion and corupt pollitics
    only a patriot party with absalute majority can do good to india
    why do we keep our eyes closed whey are we not visualizing future .
    china is making port in lanka ,bangladesh ,myanmar .in less than 5 years china will leave amarica behind and then ll go for extention plans what ll india do then allready china has blocked india from three
    sides but before that how can india inrease its trade from africa as china is claming of sea spaces in bay of bengal.
    I urge all the readers open your eyes only a strong government with one centre and national intrest can do good to india ,can secure future.vote for one party or only our coming generation ll have to pay for it badly

  9. RECENTLY BJP DO ALLIANCES WITH LJP,RLSP,MDMK,PMK,DMDK,TDP,GGM. THAT WILL HELP BJP LEAD NDA TO CROSS 250+MARK…AFTER ELECTIONS YSR SURLY SUPPORT NAMO….SO NDA WILL FORM GOVT WITH ITS OWN..

  10. Alliance with mdmk ,dmdk,pmk ll not yeild any extra seat/vote to bjp bjp can win 2-3 seats only in tn.
    Going with jagan means leving the corruption agenda apart and then cannot go with tdp

    my assumtions bjp /nda will have to go with C B naidu/tdp and amma /jai lailita post pool .thou i personally hate blackmailer & corrupt jaya but unfortunaty she shall be needed

    1. Ndtv opinion pool gives the real figure of now i do belive its assuptions as its sample size is as big as 2 lakhs.

  11. ndtv poll is worst- it has no value , hansda research is worst , they giving bjp 0 seats and their assam top cong leaders saying it will be tough fr us this time. bjp will get 230 alone , i can bet on that . infighting dissidence will there – bjp is big national party , so that will happen after declaring tickets- after few days it will dry up- sushma tweets is just posturing , nothing else. bjp has very good chance this time in three seats in north bengal after gjm supported bjp . darjeling sure short , alipur duar very much possible and jalpaiguri outside chance.

      1. p.c sarkar has outside chance also krishnagar seat former mp jalu babu- both have outside chance- but in darjelling and alipur duar seats now looking very much possible- alipur duar coz of 4 cornered fight- all 4 will cutting each other votes with gjm support all nepali voter will vote fr bjp and bjp have some base there- if bjp touch 32-34 % vote share they will coz of 4 cornered fight- last time bjp got approx 23% vote , pc sarkar and jalu babu have to fight fr win but pc sarkar have better chance. coz of star factor also sitting mp not so popular. darjelling is sure shot.

  12. also modi coming to north bengal 27-28 march bjp have base in north bengal- last time pranab son won there by 1000 votes in jangipur seat- bjp got 90.000 vote that time- north bengal is in the border of assam- so bjp alwys relatively strong there- malda south and north bjp have base .

  13. up- 30
    bih-20
    jhk-11
    chht-10
    guj-23
    raj-23
    mad-26
    kar- 13
    tam-2
    ap-2 (if tdp alliance happen)
    wb-1
    mah-17
    ori-4
    assm-6
    del-5
    har-5
    utta-5
    him-4
    pun-3
    goa-2
    jammu-2
    arunachal- 1
    manipur-1
    and 4 union teritory.
    =225+SHIVA SAINA=15,TDP=27,tamil vijay kanth-4,other small party=5 to 10.
    OUT SIDE SUPPORT aidmk,sp,tmc,jdu=75seats
    approx bjp wth alliances=320 +seats they will get.
    congress approx=65 to 87.
    aap=3 to 5.
    cpi & cpm-10 to 15.

    1. up will be more higher, csds poll is alwys right on up – they predict over 220 seats fr sp in assembly , they showing 41-49 – so 45 very much possible- and western up jats all with bjp now like in 1998 when bjp won 25 out of 32 seats on western up. otherwise i agree with ur prediction- karnataka may bit higher even bihar also.

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  15. vote for BJP save the nation, i am from kerala, here BJP is not strong but as a good INDIAN I request everyone to support BJP make MODIji as our PM, we need growth…UPA govt spoiled our nation a lot, don’t support congress any more. Those who love their nation support MODI and BJP

  16. Yes u r right..pls support MODI..we need change, we need to grow up…BHARATH MATHA KI JAI…vote for BJP…save our nation

  17. I’m from India voting for India’s development, as we all seen Indian history and track record frm past 60years before British people were looted now so called political parties, politicians are looting… So lets wakeup atleast now…. We can b the richest country in world not just in word…. We all are aware of slogans about modi ji… Appke baar modi sarkar y can’t we say Appkebaar AMARA SARKAR… Lets vote for our Nations good… Lets show what Indians are how we can make a change… Lets cha

  18. As an Indian and a patriotic This time all should vote for BJP and make MODI as PM. This is a great duty to our nation. Congress destroyed economy and weak in world Even small countries are threatening .It is all because of Sonia Rahul and Manmohansingh. Murugu Tamilnad

  19. great publish, very informative. I’m wondering why
    the opposite experts of this sector do not realize this.
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  20. 1 Andhra Pradesh
    42 TDP-10
    BJP-4 CON-4
    MIM-1 TRS-10
    YSR-13
    2 Arunachal Pradesh
    2 BJP-1 CON-1 –
    3 Assam
    14 BJP-5
    AGP-4 CON-5 –
    4 Bihar
    40 BJP-25
    LJP-3 CON-3
    RJD-4 JDU-5
    5 Chhattisgarh
    11 BJP-8 CON-3 –
    6 Goa
    2 BJP=2 NIL NIL
    7 Gujarat
    26 BJP-22 CON-4 NIL
    8 Haryana
    10 BJP-7 CON-3 NIL
    9 Himachal Pradesh
    4 BJP-3 CON-1 NIL
    10 Jammu and Kashmir
    6 BJP-2 CON-1
    NC-1 PDP-2
    11 Jharkhand
    14 BJP-10 CON-1
    JMM-3 NIL
    12 Karnataka
    28 BJP-15 CON-9 JDS-4
    13 Kerala
    20 BJP-1 CON-6 LEFT-13
    14 Madhya Pradesh
    29 BJP-25 CON-4 NIL
    15 Maharashtra
    48 BJP-16
    SS-15
    RPI-2 CON-7
    NCP-6 MNS-2
    16 Manipur
    2 BJP-1 CON-1 NIL
    17 Meghalaya
    2 BJP-1 CON-1 NIL
    18 Mizoram
    1 NIL NIL MIZ-1
    19 Nagaland
    1 NIL 1 NIL
    20 Odisha
    21 BJP-5 CON-2 BJD-14
    21 Punjab
    13 BJP-3
    AKALI-5 CON-4 OTH-1
    22 Rajasthan
    25 BJP-22 CON-3 NIL
    23 Sikkim
    1 NIL NIL OTH-1
    24 Tamil Nadu
    39 BJP-2
    PMK-2
    MDMK-2
    DMDK-5 DMK-5 AIDMK
    LED-23
    25 Tripura
    2 BJP-1 CON-1 NIL
    26 Uttar Pradesh
    80 BJP-45 CON-2
    BSP-15 SP-13
    OTH-5
    27 Uttarakhand
    5 BJP-4 CON-1 NIL
    28 West Bengal
    42 BJP-3 CON-3 TC-27
    LFT-9
    Union Territory wise
    S.No. Name of State Member
    1 Andaman and Nicobar Islands
    1 BJP-1 NIL NIL
    2 Chandigarh
    1 BJP-1 NIL NIL
    3 Dadra and Nagar Haveli
    1 BJP-1 NIL NIL
    4 Daman and Diu
    1 BJP-1 NIL NIL
    5 Delhi
    7 BJP-4 NIL AAP-3
    6 Lakshadweep
    1 BJP-1 NIL NIL
    7 Puducherry
    1 NIL NIL RAM-1

    290 106

  21. FROM WHERE YOU GOT THE RTESULT HOW CAN YOU SAY CONGRESS WILL NOT GO UP FROM 100SEAT YOUR ALL DETIALS AREW WRTONG YOU ARE PROMOTING BJP YOU ALL WORST

    1. Thanks Narendra, I got the data from the same place you got the data which said Congress will get more. I am fairly neutral. Truth is harsh & bitter can’t help. In the same way I can also accuse you of promoting Congress. 16th not far off!

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