2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will Congress win? (Revised)


Politicalbaaba had estimated 100 seats for UPA on Jan.25, 2014 down from 113 projected in Sep. 2013, link below.

http://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=4788&action=edit

Post the projections nothing much has changed for UPA except for the fact that Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has joined the alliance in Bihar. They are expected to add 10 seats to UPA’s kitty. With this Politicalbaaba now estimates 112 seats for UPA.

Senior leaders of party are reluctant to fight for polls (Chidambaram, Manish Tewarie etc.). There has been an exodus of leaders from party – Jagdambika Pal, Satpal Maharaj, Rao Inderjeet Singh to BJP. Stars not good for the party.

Will Congress record its worst performance ever?

A lot of readers are asking if Congress will record its worst performance ever? The answer is yes. Congress worst tally till date has been 114 in 1999 when Vajpayee formed govt. This time Congress including allies will be getting less than this.

People also ask whether Congress will be able to score even a fifty. Fortunes of Congress are linked to Aam Aadmi Party’s fortunes. Both UPA and AAP combined would get ~120 seats. AAP shares common ideology with Congress – minority appeasement, giving people everything for free – and hence would compete for votes among minority community and poor people living in slums apart from other voters. Formula is pretty simple. If AAP gets 20, Congress will get 100. If AAP gets 50, Congress will get 70. If AAP gets 100 Congress will get 20. Though, Politicalbaaba currently estimates 11 seats for AAP, it is possible that wherever NDA candidate is weak people might vote for AAP to ensure defeat of Congress. Anger against Congress is so much that it can be wiped from national scene. Situation similar to Delhi might emerge.

State / UT Seats 2004 2009 2014
Arunachal Pradesh 2 0 2 1
Assam 14 9 7 8
Bihar 40 14 2 12
Jharkhand 14 3 4
Goa 2 1 1 0
Gujarat 26 12 11 5
Haryana 10 9 9 1
Himachal Pradesh 4 3 1 1
Jammu & Kashmir 6 4 5 3
Karnataka 28 8 6 12
Kerala 20 0 13 5
Madhya Pradesh 29 5 12 6
Chattisgarh 11 1 3
Maharashtra 48 22 25 14
Manipur 2 1 2 2
Meghalaya 2 1 1 2
Mizoram 1 0 1 1
Nagaland 1 0 1 1
Orissa 21 2 6 3
Punjab 13 2 8 4
Rajasthan 25 4 20 5
Sikkim 1 0 0 1
Seemandhra 25 29 33 0
Telangana 17 5
Tamil Nadu 39 10 8 0
Tripura 2 0 0 0
Uttar Pradesh 80 13 26 9
Uttarakhand 5 5 1
West Bengal 42 6 6 1
Andaman 1 1 0 0
Daman & Diu 1 0 0 0
Dadra&Nagar 1 0 0 0
Delhi 7 6 7 0
Pondicherry 1 1 1 1
Lakshadweep 1 0 1 1
Chandigarh 1 1 1 0
Total 543 164 225 112

Poll

About these ads

2 thoughts on “2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will Congress win? (Revised)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s