Elections to 5 states – Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Mizoram – took place recently. Counting is on 8th Dec. While BJP is in power in MP and Chattisgarh currently, Congress is in power in the balance states. Mizoram a North Eastern state sends only 1 MP to Lok Sabha and hence is not important in the scheme of things. Sad but that’s the fact. Hence we will discuss about only the other four states.
These elections are the first major elections after NaMo was declared as BJP’s Prime Ministerial (PM) candidate. Hence a lot is at stake for him. These four states send 72 MPs to Lok Sabha and is in the Hindi heartland supposedly BJP stronghold.
There was a lot of debate within BJP as to the timing of Modi’s PM candidature announcement. Advani led camp strongly wanted declaration to be after the state elections (reasons we will see below).
There are three possible results in these elections:
I. Congress 4: BJP 0 or Congress 3: BJP 1 (Probability Negligible)
If Congress manages to retain Delhi and Rajasthan and snatch away MP and / or Chhattisgarh from BJP it will be a big boost for Congress. It will puncture so called myth around NaMo’s popularity and there will be serious question marks raised over his PM candidature within BJP. The hypothesis will be that huge turnouts are not translating into votes. This will be scary situation for BJP. It could try to put up a brave front by saying that state elections are fought on local issues and popularity of national leader shouldn’t be gauged from this. Bull basically.
2. Congress 2: BJP 2 (Probability Medium)
2:2 is also bad news for NaMo in whatever combination. NaMo has toured extensively in all the 4 states with lots of rallies which evidenced huge turnouts. In 2-2 score line, the most probable states where BJP would win are MP and Chhattisgarh. It could be argued that in these states BJP would be winning in any case because of good development work done by the Chief Ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh respectively. So what did Modi do? It will be argued that his magic actually failed. 2:2 would confirm Advani’s doubts over the timing.
3. Congress 1: BJP 3 or Congress 0: BJP 4 (Probability High)
If BJP wins all the 4 states (which Politicalbaaba had predicted and exit polls also concur with) then it will be a big boost for Modi. BJP will call it as NaMo wave and this will stamp NaMo’s authority over BJP. It will also show that Modi is actually able to convert turnouts into votes and BJP made a right decision. This could build the roadmap of BJP getting majority (272+) on its own in the next Lok Sabha polls.
Though BJP would be happy with a 3-1 score line also, question mark over Modi’s ability to get votes will remain. People would say that BJP would have won 2 states anyways (MP & Chhattisgarh) so score line for Modi is actually 1-1. Congress would attack Modi and all this hype created over the last 3 months could be decimated.
Hence it is very important for BJP to win all 4 states. It will be symbolic of Modi’s popularity and ability to trounce Congress in next Lok Sabha elections. Confidence of BJP will increase significantly after winning this semi-final handsomely.