Politicalbaaba Pre-Poll Projections Bang on, BJP 4: Congress 0


The results to the 4 elections in the states were declared on Sunday and the BJP trounced Congress in all the 4 states. While it got absolute majority in Rajasthan, Chhatitsgarh and Madhya Pradesh, BJP emerged as the single largest party in the Delhi. The results were broadly in line with pre-poll projections carried out by Politicalbaaba (PB) in the blog during Aug-Sep 2013 period.

Rajasthan (200 seats) : PB nos. were spot on in Rajasthan where BJP got 162 vs 150 projected. It is noted that none of the opinion polls projected such a huge victory for BJP in the state. Link of projections on blog below:

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/09/11/state-projections-rajasthan-bjp-comes-back-to-power-in-state-sweeps-lok-sabha-elections/

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  Politicalbaaba Actual
BJP 150 162
Congress 40 21
Others 10 17

Madhya Pradesh (230 seats): While BJP won Madhya Pradesh handsomely, the results were much better than PB projections (165 vs 125). Infighting in Congress between Digvijay Singh and Jyotiraditya Scindia and Modi wave titled the balance in favour of BJP. Link of projections on blog below:

 https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/08/21/state-projections-madhya-pradesh-bjp-sweep-in-state-assembly-as-well-as-lok-sabha/

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  Politicalbaaba Actual
BJP 125 165
Congress 90 58
Others 15 7

Chhattisgarh (90 seats): The results were broadly in line with PB projections with BJP scoring a hattrick (49 seats vs 55 projected). Congress managed to get higher symptahy votes than projected in tribal areas on account of assasination of its top state leaders by Maoists. Link of projections on blog below:

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/08/10/chattisgarh-assembly-elections-next-lok-sabha-elections-projections/

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  Politicalbaaba Actual
BJP 55 49
Congress 35 41

Delhi (70 seats): While BJP emerged as the single largest party in Delhi (32 seats vs PB projection of 35), it has not been able to form govt. and a hung assembly situation has emerged. PB failed to estimate the power of Kejriwal’s AAm AAdmi Party (AAP). PB projected 35 combined seats for Congress (25) and AAP (10). While on a combined basis, they secured a similar level of 36 seats, individual seats were actually reverse than projected (AAP 28 and Congress 8). This is attributed to massive wave against Congress in state and imaginative campaigning of AAP which presented a honest alternative to party politics. Link of projections on blog below:

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/08/21/state-projections-delhi-bjp-will-just-manage-to-form-govt-in-state-sweep-lok-sabha/

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  Politicalbaaba Actual
BJP 35 32
Congress 25 8
AAP 15 28
Others 0 2

It is noted that AAP projected seats were increased to 10 sometime in October.

PB thanks its readers for the support received over the past few months and endeavour would be to predict Lok Sabha poll results more accurately.

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