The new kid on the block, AAP, has shocked the entire political class by emerging as the 2nd largest party & forming the govt. in Delhi with outside support of Congress. The kind of response they have got has shocked the political pundits and given sleepless nights to Congress, BJP & other regional parties. AAP’s announcement that they would contest 300 seats in Lok Sabha has made the otherwise 2 way contest a triangular one. In metros, Kejriwal has pipped Rahul and is now the 2nd choice for Prime Minister of the surveyed class behind Modi. Many have already started saying that he could derail Modi’s Prime Ministerial ambitions. Even RSS and Modi have become jittery.

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How many seats will AAP win in Lok Sabha? Will it damage Congress more than BJP or vice-a-versa? Will it be able to replicate its success of Delhi in other cities? Will it be able to make an impact in rural areas? These are some of the questions which are on everybody’s minds and a lot has been said / written / debated in the recent times.

AAP is more of a urban phenomenon where educated voters fed up of current political class have decided to give somebody from amongst themselves (aam aadmi) a chance to rule and govern. According to a Business Standard & Economic Times article there are ~200 urban seats in India out of 543 seats. This was contested by Mint which estimated the total no. of predominantly urban constituencies in Lok Sabha as 53. I agree to this viewpoint, as even if Delhi has 7 seats, there are many rural areas like Narela, Rithala, Bawana, Badli etc. So all of Delhi seats are not urban. If India had 200 predominantly urban cities, the shape of infrastructure of the country would have been entirely different, way superior than what it currently is.

http://www.livemint.com/Specials/XovcjYRkWCBLJSwQwxY6wN/India-has-only-53-predominantly-urban-constituencies.html

Out of this 53 seats, UPA currently has 25. Most of these seats are up for grabs in 2014. AAP could get 12 (50%) of the above seats mainly in Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Nashik, Hyderabad, Chandigarh and Faridabad (mainly cosmopolitan). The party has significant presence and influence in National Capital Region (NCR) and it could win additional 3 seats there from Gurgaon, Bhiwani (Kejriwal’s birth place) and Gautam Buddha Nagar (Noida). This would take the total tally to 15. Which is not bad, very impressive for a party making its debut.

Some supporters are not happy with AAP taking help of Congress in Delhi. Plus a lot of voters might feel that post polls it could again ally with Congress. Majority Indians don’t want Congress to comeback in power through back door. This will impact some of its vote bank.

The party sadly doesn’t have a rural base currently because its new and caste plays an important factor in rural India (sad but true). Hence party making an impact out of urban areas into rural India is difficult to imagine at this stage.

The party is capable of springing surprises. As elections draw near and based on events, this tally will be revised. Please provide your thoughts….

City State No. of Seats Currently Held By AAP Could Win
Greater Mumbai Maharashtra 6 UPA (6) 2
Delhi Delhi 5 UPA (5) 4
Greater Bangalore Karnataka 4 NDA (3) JSDS (1) 1
Greater Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh 3 UPA (2) Others (1) 0
Chennai Tamil Nadu 3 DMK (2) AIADMK (1) 0
Ahmedabad Gujarat 2 NDA (2) 0
Kolkata West Bengal 2 TMC (2) 0
Surat Gujarat 2 NDA 0
Pune Maharashtra 1 UPA 0
Lucknow Uttar Pradesh 1 NDA 0
Jaipur Rajasthan 1 UPA 0
Kanpur Uttar Pradesh 1 UPA 0
Nagpur Maharashtra 1 UPA 0
Chandigarh Chandigarh 1 UPA 1
Vishakhapatnam Andhra Pradesh 1 UPA 0
Indore Madhya Pradesh 1 NDA 0
Thane Maharashtra 1 UPA 0
Ludhiana Punjab 1 UPA 0
Pinpri-Chinchwad Maharashtra 1 NDA 0
Vadodara Gujarat 1 NDA 0
Bhopal Madhya Pradesh 1 NDA 0
Patna Bihar 1 NDA 0
Nashik Maharashtra 1 UPA 0
Agra Uttar Pradesh 1 NDA 0
Coimbatore Tamil Nadu 1 CPM 0
Srinagar Jammu & Kasmir 1 NC 0
Rajkot Gujarat 1 UPA 0
Faridabad Haryana 1 UPA 0
Madurai Tamil Nadu 1 DMK 0
Kalyan-Dombivali Maharashtra 1 NDA 0
Amritsar Punjab 1 NDA 0
Meerut Uttar Pradesh 1 NDA 0
Vijaywada Andhra Pradesh 1 UPA 0
Aurangabad Maharashtra 1 NDA 0
Total   53   8
Gurgaon Haryana 1 UPA 1
Gautam Buddha Nagar Uttar Pradesh 1 BSP 1
Bhiwani-Mahendragarh Haryana 1 UPA 1
Total       11

What is this going to do? Will this reduce BJP’s tally? Watch out for BJP Projections & All India Projections soon……

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