2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will Aaam Aaadmi Party win?


The new kid on the block, AAP, has shocked the entire political class by emerging as the 2nd largest party & forming the govt. in Delhi with outside support of Congress. The kind of response they have got has shocked the political pundits and given sleepless nights to Congress, BJP & other regional parties. AAP’s announcement that they would contest 300 seats in Lok Sabha has made the otherwise 2 way contest a triangular one. In metros, Kejriwal has pipped Rahul and is now the 2nd choice for Prime Minister of the surveyed class behind Modi. Many have already started saying that he could derail Modi’s Prime Ministerial ambitions. Even RSS and Modi have become jittery.

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How many seats will AAP win in Lok Sabha? Will it damage Congress more than BJP or vice-a-versa? Will it be able to replicate its success of Delhi in other cities? Will it be able to make an impact in rural areas? These are some of the questions which are on everybody’s minds and a lot has been said / written / debated in the recent times.

AAP is more of a urban phenomenon where educated voters fed up of current political class have decided to give somebody from amongst themselves (aam aadmi) a chance to rule and govern. According to a Business Standard & Economic Times article there are ~200 urban seats in India out of 543 seats. This was contested by Mint which estimated the total no. of predominantly urban constituencies in Lok Sabha as 53. I agree to this viewpoint, as even if Delhi has 7 seats, there are many rural areas like Narela, Rithala, Bawana, Badli etc. So all of Delhi seats are not urban. If India had 200 predominantly urban cities, the shape of infrastructure of the country would have been entirely different, way superior than what it currently is.

http://www.livemint.com/Specials/XovcjYRkWCBLJSwQwxY6wN/India-has-only-53-predominantly-urban-constituencies.html

Out of this 53 seats, UPA currently has 25. Most of these seats are up for grabs in 2014. AAP could get 12 (50%) of the above seats mainly in Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Nashik, Hyderabad, Chandigarh and Faridabad (mainly cosmopolitan). The party has significant presence and influence in National Capital Region (NCR) and it could win additional 3 seats there from Gurgaon, Bhiwani (Kejriwal’s birth place) and Gautam Buddha Nagar (Noida). This would take the total tally to 15. Which is not bad, very impressive for a party making its debut.

Some supporters are not happy with AAP taking help of Congress in Delhi. Plus a lot of voters might feel that post polls it could again ally with Congress. Majority Indians don’t want Congress to comeback in power through back door. This will impact some of its vote bank.

The party sadly doesn’t have a rural base currently because its new and caste plays an important factor in rural India (sad but true). Hence party making an impact out of urban areas into rural India is difficult to imagine at this stage.

The party is capable of springing surprises. As elections draw near and based on events, this tally will be revised. Please provide your thoughts….

City State No. of Seats Currently Held By AAP Could Win
Greater Mumbai Maharashtra 6 UPA (6) 2
Delhi Delhi 5 UPA (5) 4
Greater Bangalore Karnataka 4 NDA (3) JSDS (1) 1
Greater Hyderabad Andhra Pradesh 3 UPA (2) Others (1) 0
Chennai Tamil Nadu 3 DMK (2) AIADMK (1) 0
Ahmedabad Gujarat 2 NDA (2) 0
Kolkata West Bengal 2 TMC (2) 0
Surat Gujarat 2 NDA 0
Pune Maharashtra 1 UPA 0
Lucknow Uttar Pradesh 1 NDA 0
Jaipur Rajasthan 1 UPA 0
Kanpur Uttar Pradesh 1 UPA 0
Nagpur Maharashtra 1 UPA 0
Chandigarh Chandigarh 1 UPA 1
Vishakhapatnam Andhra Pradesh 1 UPA 0
Indore Madhya Pradesh 1 NDA 0
Thane Maharashtra 1 UPA 0
Ludhiana Punjab 1 UPA 0
Pinpri-Chinchwad Maharashtra 1 NDA 0
Vadodara Gujarat 1 NDA 0
Bhopal Madhya Pradesh 1 NDA 0
Patna Bihar 1 NDA 0
Nashik Maharashtra 1 UPA 0
Agra Uttar Pradesh 1 NDA 0
Coimbatore Tamil Nadu 1 CPM 0
Srinagar Jammu & Kasmir 1 NC 0
Rajkot Gujarat 1 UPA 0
Faridabad Haryana 1 UPA 0
Madurai Tamil Nadu 1 DMK 0
Kalyan-Dombivali Maharashtra 1 NDA 0
Amritsar Punjab 1 NDA 0
Meerut Uttar Pradesh 1 NDA 0
Vijaywada Andhra Pradesh 1 UPA 0
Aurangabad Maharashtra 1 NDA 0
Total   53   8
Gurgaon Haryana 1 UPA 1
Gautam Buddha Nagar Uttar Pradesh 1 BSP 1
Bhiwani-Mahendragarh Haryana 1 UPA 1
Total       11

What is this going to do? Will this reduce BJP’s tally? Watch out for BJP Projections & All India Projections soon……

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48 thoughts on “2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will Aaam Aaadmi Party win?

  1. My guess (one way bet ) on Delhi is “0” seats. Others, I agree. Ground situation changes in Delhi by election time, I feel. Very good analysis, though. Over all, I give them chance at 4-5 places.

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  2. AAP will not win Nashik, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Bhiwani, GautamBudhNagar and Faridabad sir!
    Feeble chances in Mumbai, Gurgaon too!
    More over 2 seats in Mumbai is totally impossible! Max, MayankGandhi can hav an outside chance!

    Delhi will offer not more than a New Delhi and a Chandni Chowk!

    So, might see an AAP well below 2 digits tally!!

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  3. Good Analysis. You’re reasonable in your approach and analysis of AAP winning in certain constituencies. My take is AAP can garner max 7 seats in Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Nashik, Hyderabad, Chandigarh and Faridabad. But they’re in a haste and committing mistakes and that too full of stupidity. Thank you 🙂

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  4. MP elections will be different from state Government elections. NaMo will be the focus point. Even in Karnataka I predict a sweep. UP, Bihar will be the surprise package for BJP.

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  5. Hello Mr. Politicalbaaba, Really nice analysis covering all the regions and cities. Also a good thinking about the new comers strengths and weakness. In my home state TN, as you said AAP cannot pull the crowd away from the regional parties to make an impact in the voting pattern. Whereas it can get few thousands of vote in Chennai and Coimbatore which may not help to drag the regional parties winning.

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  6. Impressed i must say almost what i thought though one thing
    Greater Mumbai 2 possible
    Delhi 4 i think and my reports it would be 3-5
    Greater Bangalore 0 bcz 3 prominent players there and with the yeduruppa comeback AAP may loose that 1 seat.
    Greater Hyderabad 0 impossible it is MIM strong hold
    Ahmedabad 1 can be there just if Congress weak then
    Pune 0
    Lucknow 0 BJP here
    Gurgaon would be BJP this time good input for BJP there
    Chandigarh 0 impossible 1 here you must see the scenario there
    Would look forward to the ALL INDIA SEAT PROJECTION for AAP i think they may get 15-20 nationwide
    By the way when would All India polls come? When will it be for BJP ??
    I can predict 28-32 to BJP here but by your poll i think you would be giving near about 25 🙂 Waiting for it eagerly i would say 1st time i got fair analysis 🙂

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  7. Hello Mr. Politicalbaaba, As AAP increased in proposed contesting constituencies from 300 to 400+ what is your call? Now all the calculations are made keeping in mind that the party could do well only in metros. Also what is the impact of the open comments from Mr. Vinod Kumar Binny, Ms. Mallika Sarabhai, another AAP leader Ms. Tina Sharma?

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    1. Hi Vivek, lets wait for some time. It will be damaging for AAP definitely (Binny episode) and show that this is not a party with a difference as it claims.Rural areas still no presence so doesn’t change equations much. They had 25k members and 2.5 lakh volunteers for 70 seats in Delhi (7 Lok Sabha seats). So for 400 seats they need 1.4 crore volunteers for the type of door-to-door campaigning they do. Funds is also an issue. They need 1200 crores on same logic. So lets wait and watch. Thanks

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  8. admin – if bjp /ss/mns and raju that independent will go to any alliance aap will not win any seat frm maharastha – o chance, in delhi bjp ahead in 5 seats over 40000 as per recent assembly election results – aap have to do dramatically well to capture these seats and delhi ppl alwys vote fr in general election who they know to capable of form govt !!! 2 seats realistic prediction fr app in delhi – as per up i am quite sure they will not win any seats , in up if they want to win seats they have to sp/bsp and bjp and they have no cadre base in up , only seat other than delhi , in haryana- at best they will 3-4 – that my prediction- their govt in delhi already in doldrums , and win seats in general election is different cattle of fish!!!and bro come on raj and guj is modis states – they have no chance there

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    1. MNS not with BJP and with Shiv Sena no chance they will get in pre-poll. Post poll may be. Hence will also be a spoiler. Things unfolding in Delhi and the projections before Binni’s press conference. Still 4-3 could go either way. Mayank Gandhi could win a seat from Mumbai. Sharad Joshi joining AAP could also impact in Maha. Pls see AAP predictions. No seats have been given in the two states mentioned. I am just saying 15 for AAP https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/01/14/2014-lok-sabha-projections-how-many-seats-will-aaam-aaadmi-party-win/. +/- 5% deviation may always happen.

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  10. AAP isn’t getting even a single seat from nashik, pune mumbai or even in maharashtra I dnt knw frm what u derive ur analysis but I’m 4m mumbai n I’m dead sure abt this… it may have nuisance value but not worth winning even a seat in maharashtra.

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