2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will BJP win?

BJP was on a roller coaster ride after anointment of Modi as its PM candidate. He was holding big rallies, drawing huge crowds and topping charts in all surveys. He led BJP to emphatic win in the state assembly elections in Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh which account for 65 Lok Sabha seats. In Delhi though it emerged as the single largest party, lost govt. formation chance to Aam Aadmi Party. Past month or so AAP has caught attention of entire media and thousands of people are joining the party. It has also declared its intentions to stand in 400 Lok Sabha seats.

The entry of AAP seemed to change the scene for BJP at national elections. Questions were raised as to will Aam Aadmi Party ruin BJP’s chances? Will it dent Congress more or BJP more?

The revised projections are out for NDA (BJP + Shiv Sena + Akali Dal). The alliance is expected to win 220 seats (+89) in 2014 up from 131 in 2009 elections. This is also 21 seats higher than 1999 elections where BJP won and formed govt. under Vajpayee. The alliance is expected to improve its performance in all states / union territories except for the state of Karnataka.

NDA is expected to get 182 seats (83% of its total tally is expected from 10 states) as detailed below:

(i) Bihar & Jharkhand: Expected to get 26 seats (+6). There is a sympathy in Bihar for BJP where its long time standing partner Janata Dal (United) ended a 17 year old alliance. Exodus of MPs from JDU and no viable opposition (Lalu lost some credibility after jailed in fodder scam, Paswan has no base left, Congress has no presence) will help BJP. OBCs are in good population (Modi’s caste) will help too. People on ground say they could do much better.

(ii) Gujarat:  Expected to get 21 seats (+5). People will vote for Gujarati asmita (pride) and would like to see their Chief Minister become Prime Minister of the country. May get a few more. No competition here for Modi.

(iii) Karnataka: Expected to get 12 seats (-7). This is the only state where BJP will register a decline. Though after Yeddyurappa has joined back seats will improve but corruption charges against him plus internal party politics will impact BJP.

(iv) Madhya Pradesh & Chhatisgarh: Expected to get 34 seats (+8). Strong performance in state assembly elections where BJP won plus strong local leadership (Chouhan & Raman Singh) and very strong support base will help BJP sweep these two states.

(v) Maharashtra: Expected to get 28 seats (+8). Strong anti-incumbency against central & state UPA leadership and corruption scandals in state will help BJP and its ally Shiv Sena perform better. AAP could dent a few seats here though.

(vi) Punjab: Expected to get 10 seats (+5). Anti-incumbency against UPA will work to the advantage of BJP. Its ally Akali Dal has come back in power for 2nd consecutive term. Plus some Congress MPs like spokespersons Manish Tewari are on very weak wicket.

(vii) Rajasthan: Expected to get 21 seats (+17). BJP will ride on its stupendous perfrmance in state elections (where it won >80% seats) and will sweep the state. Modi is a big factor here.

(viii) Uttar Pradesh & Uttarakhand: Expected to get 34 seats (+24). In UP the most crucial state, Samajwadi Party’s position has weakened post Muzaffarnagar riots. There is polarisation of Hindu votes happening on the ground plus Modi’s OBC factor will play a big role here. Bahujan Samaj Party’s refusal to ally with Congress will also help. Four cornered contests are always difficult to predict. Congress might also benefit as minority votes swing from SP towards it. All in all complex state. BJP expected to bag 30 seats (+20). In Uttarakhand BJP will sweep due to poor handling of flood situation and in-fighting in Congress (Rawat vs Bahuguna). It may be noted that BJP got 29 seats in 1999 and still formed the govt. so a 50-60 seats though desirable is not necessary to form govt. at the center.

Modi wave is evident across all states even after AAP surge as Modi ahead in race for PM in surveys. These 10 states where BJP expected to do very well are part of predominantly Hindi speaking belt (except perhaps Karnataka) where he is even more popular. AAP doesn’t seem to be hitting BJP very adversely. Except for a few seats in Delhi, Maharashtra and Haryana. Almost nil presence in UP and Bihar plus no rural base will hurt AAP and is helping BJP. People also seem to be in a mood to give as far as possible a clear mandate. A lot of AAP supporters in Delhi have already given their support for Modi in national elections. In plain words AAP is not seen by many to be an alternative to BJP to take on Congress at the center. People sympathize with them but want them to perform first. First deserve then desire.

In South India too BJP is expected to make debut in Kerala plus it could bag 3 seats in T. Nadu. N. eastern states would still remain Congress / regional parties stronghold.

What do you esteemed readers feel? Please pour in your comments. eagerly waiting…..

State / UT	Seats	1999A	2009A	2014P
Andhra Pradesh	42	7	0	3
Arunachal Pradesh	2	0	0	1
Assam	14	2	4	5
Bihar	40	23	12	16
Jharkhand	14		8	10
Goa	2	2	1	2
Gujarat	26	20	15	21
Haryana	10	5	0	5
Himachal Pradesh	4	3	3	3
Jammu & Kashmir	6	2	0	1
Karnataka	28	7	19	12
Kerala	20	0	0	1
Madhya Pradesh	29	29	16	24
Chattisgarh	11		10	10
Maharashtra	48	28	20	28
Manipur	2	0	0	0
Meghalaya	2	0	0	0
Mizoram	1	0	0	0
Nagaland	1	0	0	0
Orissa	21	9	0	3
Punjab	13	3	5	10
Rajasthan	25	16	4	21
Sikkim	1	0	0	0
Tamil Nadu	39	4	0	3
Tripura	2	0	0	0
UP	80	29	10	30
Uttarakhand	5		0	4
West Bengal	42	2	1	1
Andaman	1	1	1	1
Daman & Diu	1	0	1	1
Dadra&Nagar	1	0	1	1
Delhi	7	7	0	3
Pondicherry	1	0	0	0
Lakshadweep	1	0	0	0
Chandigarh	1	0	0	0
Total	543	199	131	220

A: Actual, P: Projected

Seats of BJP + Akali Dal + Shiv Sena have been compared across the period as they comprise of the current NDA.

Revised Latest Projections

These projections have been revised on 20th Mar. 2013 and NDA is expected to get 230 seats. Link below:

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/03/21/how-many-seats-will-bjp-get-revised/

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