Strong anti-incumbency (corruption, price rise, unemployment, economic slowdown), weak leadership (Rahul no match for Modi) allies rocking boat (Mamata, Karunanidhi) and delays in finalizing alliance partners (Bihar / UP) will hit Congress hard in upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The party will be lucky to get even 100 seats. Alliance finalization in Bihar and wooing DMK back would not alter the equation much with at the max addition of 15-20 seats to its tally.

If we take a look at the results of last elections were UPA got 225 seats, 140 seats (62%) came from eight states – Andhra, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan, UP, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi.

1) Andhra Pradesh: Party got 33 seats last time riding on YSR wave. The party’s fortunes in doldrums here this time (only 5 expected). Party weakened by YSR’s son’s Jagan Reddy’s exit. They wanted to counter this by announcing creation of Telangana. This has also not helped. Own Chief Minister is rebelling against high command. Telangana’s fate hanging in balance. Not sure if it can be formed before elections. Even if separate state is formed, party won’t get benefit even in Telangana as people see this only as a political move to neutralize Jagan.

2) Haryana: Party has been getting 9 seats here for the past two elections. Strong anti-incumbency, alleged irregular land deals of Vadra (Sonia’s) son-in-law, strong Aam Aadmi Party presence will reduce Congress tally to 1 this time.

3) Gujarat: Party got 11 seats last time. Modi’s anointment as PM will lead to a strong vote for him in the state this time. People want to see their “chora” as PM of the country. They will vote for Gujarati asmita. Congress would be reduced to 5 seats.

4) Rajasthan: Congress got 20 seats last time. Strong performance by Vasundhara led BJP (160+) seats in recent state assembly elections has shown a huge wave in favour of BJP / Modi. Trend wise also it is expected to do badly. Will reduce to less than 5 seats.

5) Uttar Pradesh: Congress along with ally Ajit Singh bagged 26 seats in UP last time. A pure fluke, even Congress would not have imagined this. It is going to get a drubbing this time – ministers Jaiswal, RPN Singh, Jeeten Prasad, Beni all likley to lose. Plus BJP’s expected strong performance (Modi factor, polarization of Hindu votes after Muzaffarnagar riots, Kalya Singh back into party, Modi’s OBC factor) will also eat into Congress votes. Likely to get less than 10. This could have been much worse but for disgruntled Muslim votes getting transferred from Mulayam to Congress.

6) Maharashtra: Party along with ally Pawar bagged 25 seats last time. Anti-Congress national wave plus strong anti-incumbency against local state govt. (Congress-NCP have been in power in the state for last 10 years) will reduce seats here. Adarsh scam, irrigation scam etc. will dent UPA’s fortunes. Absence of a strong local BJP leader will negate some of these issues and alliance likely to bag 14 seats. AAP will also play spoilsport here.

7) Madhya Pradesh: Party bagged 12 seats last time. Poor performance in recent state elections where Chouhan won 3rd successive time plus infighting in local Congress will reduce tally to 5.

8) Delhi: Party bagged all 7 seats last time. Party has been decimated in state elections with only 8 seats (-35) due to AAP wave. Will not get any seats this time here.

This time Mamata and Karuna are no longer with UPA. With Mamata UPA bagged 25 out of 42 seats in West Bengal and with Karuna 26 out of 39 in Tamil Nadu. Without them Congress expected to get only 4 seats in 2014. Plus Congress not expected to do well this time. All in all a lost battle for Congress, that’s why they didn’t announce Rahul’s name as PM candidate.

Your thoughts please…..

State / UT Seats 2004 2009 2014
Andhra Pradesh 42 29 33 5
Arunachal Pradesh 2 0 2 1
Assam 14 9 7 7
Bihar 40 14 2 2
Jharkhand 14 3 4
Goa 2 1 1 0
Gujarat 26 12 11 5
Haryana 10 9 9 1
Himachal Pradesh 4 3 1 1
Jammu & Kashmir 6 4 5 3
Karnataka 28 8 6 14
Kerala 20 0 13 5
Madhya Pradesh 29 5 12 5
Chattisgarh 11 1 1
Maharashtra 48 22 25 14
Manipur 2 1 2 2
Meghalaya 2 1 1 2
Mizoram 1 0 1 1
Nagaland 1 0 1 1
Orissa 21 2 6 3
Punjab 13 2 8 3
Rajasthan 25 4 20 4
Sikkim 1 0 0 1
Tamil Nadu 39 10 8 3
Tripura 2 0 0 0
UP 80 13 26 8
Uttarakhand 5 5 1
West Bengal 42 6 6 1
Andaman 1 1 0 0
Daman & Diu 1 0 0 0
Dadra&Nagar 1 0 0 0
Delhi 7 6 7 0
Pondicherry 1 1 1 1
Lakshadweep 1 0 1 1
Chandigarh 1 1 1 0
Total 543 164 225 100

UPA = Congress + National Conference + JMM + NCP + Rashtriya Lok Dal

Revised Latest Projections

These projections have been revised on 22nd Mar. 2013 and UPA is expected to get 112 seats. Link below:

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/03/22/2014-lok-sabha-projections-how-many-seats-will-congress-get-revised/

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