Strong anti-incumbency (corruption, price rise, unemployment, economic slowdown), weak leadership (Rahul no match for Modi) allies rocking boat (Mamata, Karunanidhi) and delays in finalizing alliance partners (Bihar / UP) will hit Congress hard in upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The party will be lucky to get even 100 seats. Alliance finalization in Bihar and wooing DMK back would not alter the equation much with at the max addition of 15-20 seats to its tally.
If we take a look at the results of last elections were UPA got 225 seats, 140 seats (62%) came from eight states – Andhra, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan, UP, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi.
1) Andhra Pradesh: Party got 33 seats last time riding on YSR wave. The party’s fortunes in doldrums here this time (only 5 expected). Party weakened by YSR’s son’s Jagan Reddy’s exit. They wanted to counter this by announcing creation of Telangana. This has also not helped. Own Chief Minister is rebelling against high command. Telangana’s fate hanging in balance. Not sure if it can be formed before elections. Even if separate state is formed, party won’t get benefit even in Telangana as people see this only as a political move to neutralize Jagan.
2) Haryana: Party has been getting 9 seats here for the past two elections. Strong anti-incumbency, alleged irregular land deals of Vadra (Sonia’s) son-in-law, strong Aam Aadmi Party presence will reduce Congress tally to 1 this time.
3) Gujarat: Party got 11 seats last time. Modi’s anointment as PM will lead to a strong vote for him in the state this time. People want to see their “chora” as PM of the country. They will vote for Gujarati asmita. Congress would be reduced to 5 seats.
4) Rajasthan: Congress got 20 seats last time. Strong performance by Vasundhara led BJP (160+) seats in recent state assembly elections has shown a huge wave in favour of BJP / Modi. Trend wise also it is expected to do badly. Will reduce to less than 5 seats.
5) Uttar Pradesh: Congress along with ally Ajit Singh bagged 26 seats in UP last time. A pure fluke, even Congress would not have imagined this. It is going to get a drubbing this time – ministers Jaiswal, RPN Singh, Jeeten Prasad, Beni all likley to lose. Plus BJP’s expected strong performance (Modi factor, polarization of Hindu votes after Muzaffarnagar riots, Kalya Singh back into party, Modi’s OBC factor) will also eat into Congress votes. Likely to get less than 10. This could have been much worse but for disgruntled Muslim votes getting transferred from Mulayam to Congress.
6) Maharashtra: Party along with ally Pawar bagged 25 seats last time. Anti-Congress national wave plus strong anti-incumbency against local state govt. (Congress-NCP have been in power in the state for last 10 years) will reduce seats here. Adarsh scam, irrigation scam etc. will dent UPA’s fortunes. Absence of a strong local BJP leader will negate some of these issues and alliance likely to bag 14 seats. AAP will also play spoilsport here.
7) Madhya Pradesh: Party bagged 12 seats last time. Poor performance in recent state elections where Chouhan won 3rd successive time plus infighting in local Congress will reduce tally to 5.
8) Delhi: Party bagged all 7 seats last time. Party has been decimated in state elections with only 8 seats (-35) due to AAP wave. Will not get any seats this time here.
This time Mamata and Karuna are no longer with UPA. With Mamata UPA bagged 25 out of 42 seats in West Bengal and with Karuna 26 out of 39 in Tamil Nadu. Without them Congress expected to get only 4 seats in 2014. Plus Congress not expected to do well this time. All in all a lost battle for Congress, that’s why they didn’t announce Rahul’s name as PM candidate.
Your thoughts please…..
| State / UT | Seats | 2004 | 2009 | 2014 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 42 | 29 | 33 | 5 |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Assam | 14 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| Bihar | 40 | 14 | 2 | 2 |
| Jharkhand | 14 | 3 | 4 | |
| Goa | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Gujarat | 26 | 12 | 11 | 5 |
| Haryana | 10 | 9 | 9 | 1 |
| Himachal Pradesh | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Jammu & Kashmir | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Karnataka | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Kerala | 20 | 0 | 13 | 5 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 29 | 5 | 12 | 5 |
| Chattisgarh | 11 | 1 | 1 | |
| Maharashtra | 48 | 22 | 25 | 14 |
| Manipur | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Meghalaya | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Mizoram | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Nagaland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Orissa | 21 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Punjab | 13 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| Rajasthan | 25 | 4 | 20 | 4 |
| Sikkim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tamil Nadu | 39 | 10 | 8 | 3 |
| Tripura | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UP | 80 | 13 | 26 | 8 |
| Uttarakhand | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
| West Bengal | 42 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| Andaman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daman & Diu | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dadra&Nagar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Delhi | 7 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Pondicherry | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lakshadweep | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chandigarh | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 543 | 164 | 225 | 100 |
UPA = Congress + National Conference + JMM + NCP + Rashtriya Lok Dal
Revised Latest Projections
These projections have been revised on 22nd Mar. 2013 and UPA is expected to get 112 seats. Link below:
Poll
Politicalbaaba 
Excellent Analysis. Article reflects the reality of Congress. I hope people to wipe out Congress completely in the forthcoming LS polls. I am not against any one but Congress has been taking us for a ride since many many years. Even after knowing they’re deliberately acting as if nothing is wrong with the nation or people. Thank you 🙂
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Thanks Vijay.
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In Maharashtra it will be single digit for Congress & allies. Congress will get 2 digits seats. Likely to get only between 80 to 90 seats. NDA if good get TDP, INLD and few others will get atleast 30 more seats and might even get simple majority.
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Thanks Hemo. 5-10% margin of error is always there.
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yea admin congress alone will be between 80-90 not more than that- like in tamilnadu eve they go with dmk they will win little- dmk in very bad shape there, in wb mamata will never go with congress- their only ally will be lalu and paswan , eve mayawati will not ally with congress to damage her goodwill- lalu /paswan is desperate and nothing to loosse so they will go with congress.
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Correct. Paswan likely to ditch Lalu-Congress alliance and go with Nitish’s JDU.
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Pretty good
INC bottom line Seema at 75 and hits barrier at 100
Thinks May lose more in Maharastra and TN and may retain Orissa tally of 6
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Thanks Venkat for all your support.
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Reblogged this on Politicalbaaba.
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IT WILL BE LESS THAN 100.
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Thanks Subrata, could be <100 depending upon how the campaign goes.
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in telegana cong playing for short tern gains and bjp for long term gains- that’s the dfference- after supporting t-bill bjp removed ysr and tdp from scene in telengana-it’s a smart move for bjp- to form another govt in south after 5 or 10 years and but cong playing short term gains- bjp fight election alone in 1998 in ap- won 4 seats and 4 seats there were in 2nd all from telegana- from that time they are support for telegana- sensing they have big chance there !!
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All parties are playing politics!
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alliance now will not happen- tdp will fight alone sm – bjp lost base there completely- if trs merge with cong- it will be straight bi-pollar contest between bjp and cong/trs in 17 seats , many tdp cadres will join bjp .
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how can congress win 3seats in tamilnadu
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Sir please see revised nos. Congress nil in Tamil Nadu. See UPA projections under Elections 2014.
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I’m impressed, I have to admit. Seldom do I encounter a blog that’s both educative and
engaging, and without a doubt, you’ve hit the nail on the head.
The issue is something which not enough folks are speaking intelligently about.
I’m very happy that I found this during my search for something relating to this.
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When I initially commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added”
checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get
several emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service?
Thanks!
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I am not sure why this happens. You will have to uncheck the notify me I guess.
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Congress 100% wIN 200 + Seat IN 2014 And Feku Lose The Battle
Because This Country Is Secular Over 60% Population Are Secular
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Thanks pls participate in quiz contests on blog to win exciting prizes
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Have you ever thought about creating an ebook or guest authoring on other blogs?
I have a blog centered on the same subjects you
discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information.
I know my readers would enjoy your work. If you are even remotely interested, feel free to send me an e mail.
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I’m extremely impressed with your writing skills and
also with the layout on your weblog. Is this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself?
Either way keep up the nice quality writing, it is rare to
see a great blog like this one nowadays.
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I hardly leave comments, however i did a few searching and wound
up here 2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will
Congress win? | Politicalbaaba. And I actually do have a couple
of questions for you if you tend not to mind.
Could it be only me or does it give the impression like some of these remarks
come across like coming from brain dead folks? 😛 And, if you are writing on
additional social sites, I would like to follow everything new you have to post.
Would you make a list of every one of all your communal pages
like your linkedin profile, Facebook page or twitter
feed?
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You really make it seem so easy with your presentation but I
find this topic to be really something that I think I would never understand.
It seems too complex and very broad for me. I am looking forward for your next post, I’ll try to get the hang of
it!
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He always kept chatting about this. I will forward this page
to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!
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