Jayalalitha throws hat in the ring for Prime Ministership


AIADMK’s Jayalalitha has raised her hand up to be counted as a contender for Prime Minister post. So there is competition for Modi and Rahul. She has joined Third Front which consists of 11 parties – CPM, CPI, Forward Bloc, RSP, Assam Gana Parishad, Janata Dal (United), Janata Dal (Secular), Samajwadi Party, AIADMK, Biju Janata Dal (BJD), and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha. Essentially the group is of 8 parties with Left Front a front within the front. These parties together account for 92 Lok Sabha seats currently. As per Politicalbaaba projections they are expected to win ~100 seats. Though, the Front has not formally announced their PM candidate, Left Front which is amongst the largest constituent has promised suppport to Amma for PM. This is a setback of sorts for BJP which expected AIADMK to support it post polls. Though this is still possible and cannot be completely ruled out.

Why Amma agreed to be part of Third Front which is full of tall egoist leaders like Mulayam, Nitish, Deve Gowda and faces a lot of internal contradictions?

Jaya is a smart politician. She knows the limitations / contradictions of Left Front and the fact that some leaders are not reliable. Mulayam, Nitish, Gowda would never allow her to be PM as they all themselves have PM ambitions. So why did she agree to be part of this Front and rub BJP (which is likely to form govt. as per majority of surveys) the wrong way before polls. After all it is in the interest of state parties to have cordial relations with the Center. Plus Amma is perceived as a friend of Modi, they both attend each other’s swearing in ceremonies.

Amma the shrewd politician she is, knows fully well that AIADMK is going to be the largest party of the Third Front along with Left parties. Left parties would not be interested in govt. formation like in 1996. Plus they are backing her. Mulayam, Nitish, Deve Gowda all are expected to register decline in seats, so they would not be as powerful as they are currently (in terms of no. of seats). Naveen too wouldn’t like to head a khicdi govt. So she would emerge as the undisputed leader of the Front. If Mulayam / Nitish fume they would not get ministries.

So she has taken a punt. She has nothing to lose.

Possibilities for Amma

Punt that BJP / NDA would not get majority on their own. Even surveys predict that NDA could be 50 seats short of majority, so others (excluding BJP) would get 320 seats. In that situation all anti Modi / anti BJP parties could be brought under one umbrella by Congress is what she anticipates. Third Front could form govt. with support of Congress and Others and she could emerge as PM. Here she is assuming that Maya and Mamata will fall in line as they would get less seats than AIADMK and Congress would take lead to bring them to fold.

If this doesn’t happen, she doesn’t lose anything. She remains CM of Tamil Nadu. At the max BJP / NDA govt. would not take her in and some of her MPs would not become Cabinet Ministers. So what! This is her party. Dreams of other members have been sacrificed by dream of their supreme leader.

As regards cordial relationship with Center, she has been anti-Congress and has been running state govt. with a showdown with the center. So she doesn’t care. Infact she would try to gain sympathy by saying that central govt. is anti T. Nadu.

She has dreams to become PM. She feels it is her best chance. So she is giving it her best shot…….

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16 thoughts on “Jayalalitha throws hat in the ring for Prime Ministership

  1. Well written. The basic conflict in the concept of Third Front is that all the figure-heads of the Regional Parties have huge ego and a sizeable following. Both these factors prevent them from taking a reasonable participative decision at the time of government formation. The core strength of these parties is the Family and a voter-base that is myopic in its expectations. Jayalalitha may be gunning for the PM Post, but she may also be committing the error of not realizing that in States where BJP gets into power, it has a long term impact. So, it may not help to be on the wrong side of the government in 2014

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    1. Thanks Sir! She is daydreaming and we can’t dictate her dreams. The focus of post is on reasons for her choice of Third Front. Plus a Delhi like situation could emerge and she might just hit jackpot she feels.

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      1. Yes it is indded a day dreaming she cannot adjust with anybody, She could not adjust with even Modiji who helped her a lot in 2011 assemble elections. Once her work is over she will pull them down. Communist have got no back bone so they are depending on Jaya. But Nitish,Mulayam etccc would be difficult. Supposing if BJP/NDA is winning the required seats and if she becomes PM what is happening in delhi witth AAP the same will happen. And she may take a drastic step with srilanka which mzy adverse. People from TN alone will go thru the worst of this lady this our karma not to the whole nation

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  2. Yes very true. We can’t stop her from day dreaming. It was a pleasant surprise to me. Amma on a road to fulfill her PM dreams. I hope it remains only a possibility and not a reality. The author had also previously suggested that it is only talks and Amma can very well support Modiji after LS polls. In a way she is keeping her options open. Thank you.

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  3. Jayalalitha might in fact lose out a few seats in her latest gamble. 2014 is going to be a watershed in Indian electoral politics with a single leader occupying a large space. Thanks Congress Modi is becoming talking point in rural pockets of South. Surprises are in store for Amma too.

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    1. Thanks sir. Feedback I get from ground in UP and Bihar is similar. We might be in for a big surprise if all goes well. But will it be a repeat of 1977 we will have to wait and see. If BJP ropes Vijaykanth then it will be a formidable force.

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  4. Every leader is prepared to take the chance in 2014.If defunct Man mohan Singh can become PM,there is nothing wrong for any political leader to aspire.Secondly,Tamilians have to be lured to give her maximum seats to her.She also wants to enhance her bargaing power with Modi if he seeks her support.

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