Lok Sabha 2014: Who will form the next govt.?


We have completed the All India Projections including detailed projections for BJP / NDA, Congress / UPA and Aam Aadmi Party.

Lok Sabha 2014 elections is expected to throw a hung house with BJP led NDA leading the pack with 220 seats, followed by Congress led UPA at 100 seats. Others (including Left & regional parties) are expected to bag 220 seats as per Politicalbaaba projections. They will hold the keys to govt. formation at the center.

We have also seen which regional parties would support UPA & NDA post polls under the post named “What will be the strategy of regional parties post polls?”.

So the million dollar question is who will form the govt. in May 2014?

I. BJP led NDA (probability 80%)

NDA under Modi is expected to bag 220 seats. Including Telugu Desam Party with which it is expected to have a pre-poll alliance, NDA would reach 230.  40+ short of majority. Being the single largest formation President of India will invite Modi to form govt. Creation of Third Front and AIADMK / Biju Janata Dal / Assam Gana Parishad joining it makes it a bit tricky for Modi. These parties were expected to join NDA but now with them in Third Front possibility low.

Parties like Mulayam (14), Lalu / Paswan (12), Left Front (31), AIADMK (27), Naveen Patnaik (15) would not support Modi (high probability).  Mayawati could also decide not to support because this time main fight in Uttar Pradesh is between BJP and BSP. Kejri Baba (11) would also not support BJP. Jealousy of current Chief Ministers like Jayalalitha, Naveen Patnaik, Nitish Kumar with Modi would stop them from supporting Modi.

Mamata could bail out NDA, BJP is not the principal opposition party in W.Bengal, so she has no threat and she was earlier part of NDA. Since AIADMK is in Third Front, BJP could take support of DMK. This along with other smaller parties would help NDA touch the magical figure. The govt. though could be unstable. Mamata Di’s support is crucial for NDA govt. formation at the center. Without her it will be difficult to form govt.

Additionally Jagan Mohan Reddy (14) and Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (8) could provide outside support as they will refrain from joining govt. as TDP (their opponent) is in the govt. Assumption TRS doesn’t merge with Congress before polls.

Current UPA allies like Pawar’s NCP, Shibu Soren’s JMM and Ajit Singh’s RLD could also turn out to be potential allies and they can rock UPA’s boat to join NDA (10 seats). JMM’s govt. is dependent upon Congress in Jharkhand, even if Congress withdraws support BJP would come in and ensure that it runs smoothly. This takes up the overall tally to 307 seats.

NDA (BJP + S. Sena + Akali Dal + MDMK) 220
Telugu Desam Party 10
Trinamool Congress (High Dependence) 25
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena 3
Indian National Lok Dal 2
DMK 6
Others / Independents 9
Total 275
Outside Support  
YSR Congress 14
Telangana Rashtriya Samiti 8
Nationalist Congress Party 6
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha 3
Rashtriya Lok Dal 1
Total 307
 

2. Third Front (probability 10%)

UPA is expected to bag 100 seats, even if you add Lalu its tally goes up to 112 and will not be in a position to form govt. It won’t want to form govt. as well. But to stop Modi at any cost it will try to prop together a Third Front govt.

With Third Front expected to bag 100 seats, there will still be a gap of 60 seats. This govt. can’t be formed with Mamata and / or Mayawati’s support. Mayawati would ensure Mulayam and Jaya won’t become PM (ladies rivalry). Maya could provide outside support.  Mamata won’t join as her principal opponent Left Front is already in. So PM could be a consensus candidate either from Left Front or AIADMK.

1996 like experiment with Gowda / Gujral as PM. This will be a khichdi govt. , highly unstable. Congress would provide outside support and will act as the glue which will hold this coalition together till it wants. Won’t last long though, however, hard they try.

Parties like Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, TDP and DMK won’t join this alliance at any cost. It is noted that this formation will get opportunity only after BJP is unable to prove majority in Lok Sabha.

Left Front 31
AIADMK 27
Biju Janata Dal 15
Samajwadi Party 14
Janata Dal Secular 1
Janata Dal United 10
Assam Gana Parishad 2
Third Front 100
Rashtriya Janata Dal 12
Indian National Lok Dal 2
Maharashta Navnirman Sena 3
Bahujan Samaj Party 20
Aam Aadmi Party 11
YSR Congress 14
Telangana Rashtriya Samiti 8
Others / Independents 20
Nationalist Congress Party 6
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha 3
Rashtriya Lok Dal 1
Total 200
Outside Support
Congress 90
Total 290

 3. Re-elections (10% probability)

If BJP is unable to prove majority (principal reason could be that Modi’s name is not acceptable to allies) and Left Front can’t be cobbled together (because of its inherent contradictions) then stage will be re-set for re-elections. Similar situation like in 1998 when Vajpayee was unable to prove majority by 1 vote leading to re-elections.

So guys please go out and vote and give a clear mandate. We need a strong govt. to tide over the times currently facing our country and economy.

Related Posts:

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/01/14/2014-lok-sabha-projections-how-many-seats-will-aaam-aaadmi-party-win/

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/01/16/2014-lok-sabha-projections-how-many-seats-will-bjp-win/

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/2014-lok-sabha-projections-how-many-seats-will-congress-get/

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/01/30/all-india-lok-sabha-projections-2014/

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/02/05/what-will-be-the-strategy-of-regional-parties-post-lok-sabha-polls-2/

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5 thoughts on “Lok Sabha 2014: Who will form the next govt.?

  1. NaMo phenomenon can break all these studied guess works. Important agenda before the nation is to break UPA coterie,end entrenched malaise of corrupt going scot free as citizens / national morale suffers. Third front will rescue enable him,in national interest to form a govt.with external support,or vice versa. Jai hind!

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  2. Yes, BJP led NDA has the Highest Probability of forming the Government in forthcoming LS polls. Excellent Analysis and the numbers look realistic as of now. I hope that People come out and vote BJP in majority so that a Stable Government can be installed at the Center. I strongly feel that anti incumbency factor will eventually help BJP reaching that crucial 272 mark. Thank You.

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