Lok Sabha 2014: Who will form the next govt.?


We have completed the All India Projections including detailed projections for BJP / NDA, Congress / UPA and Aam Aadmi Party.

Lok Sabha 2014 elections is expected to throw a hung house with BJP led NDA leading the pack with 220 seats, followed by Congress led UPA at 100 seats. Others (including Left & regional parties) are expected to bag 220 seats as per Politicalbaaba projections. They will hold the keys to govt. formation at the center.

We have also seen which regional parties would support UPA & NDA post polls under the post named “What will be the strategy of regional parties post polls?”.

So the million dollar question is who will form the govt. in May 2014?

I. BJP led NDA (probability 80%)

NDA under Modi is expected to bag 220 seats. Including Telugu Desam Party with which it is expected to have a pre-poll alliance, NDA would…

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7 thoughts on “Lok Sabha 2014: Who will form the next govt.?

  1. I broadly agree with your assessment. However, NDA can’t have both TRS and Jagan. The former exists for the Telangana cause, and the latter is staunchly anti-bifurcation. Since the NDA has announced it supports Telangana, any kind of overt support from Jagan is ruled out. I suspect that TDP will not join an NDA government anyway (it never has in the past), so the TRS should have no problems with supporting Modi. TDP and YSRC are rivals since they both thrive in Seemandhra, but TDP and TRS could be coaxed into a grudging coexistence.

    And I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the BJD as a potential post-poll Modi ally. If BJP wins 200+, it will suddenly become attractive to all those who find it communal today. Naveen is a more likely ally than Mamata, in my opinion, since the Trinamul is fighting the Left for minority votes and may hesitate to be seen in Modi’s company even post-poll.



      1. There is lot of opposition in BJP for this alliance. TDP opposes creation of Telangana. If BJP sides with TDP it will lose heavily in Telangana & it supports Telangana. So this is the catch!


  2. Does Naidu oppose formation of Telangana outright? Or is his stance nuanced and does he support it with certain preconditions? I was under the impression it was the latter. If he now opposes the very idea of Telanagana, a pre-poll tie-up is impossible, as it is with Jagan, and the NDA is going to have a very hard time even if it were to come to power with TDP’s support only post-poll.


    1. If Telangana is created before polls, tie-up possible after that with TDP. Because then nothing can be done. BJP can get votes in Telangana on their own and in AP can get votes with Naidu help. Because the contentious issue will be solved. If Telangana is not created, all parties will support post polls. TRS to get Telangana, Jagan to get reprieve from CBI and Naidu to fight Jagan.


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