Opinion Polls (Lok Sabha): BJP Testing the Half-way Mark


It’s the season of opinion polls / pre-poll projections. We have 5 news channels / media houses which have recently published their Lok Sabha 2014 projections. All polls show BJP led NDA set to emerge as single largest combination with 220-250 seats, within striking distance of magical figure of 272. Modi wave in Northern India, sweep in states which went to polls recently, strong anti-incumbency against Congress and weak opponent in Rahul are the factors which are propelling BJP to get its best score in Lok Sabha elections. Congress led UPA is expected to be decimated and likely to finish with even <100 seats. The third largest combination Left Front is expected to garner 25-30 seats. Regional parties are expected to hold the key to govt. formation at the center with 180-200 seats. So all in all a hung Parliament.

BJP is expected to record a solid performance in Uttar Pradesh & Bihar (50-60 seats), Gujarat / Madhya Pradesh / Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan / Maharashtra / Punjab / Jharkhand (100-120 seats). Congress is expected to record heavy losses in Andhra, Haryana, UP, Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu.

Left parties are expected to marginally improve on their performance. Among regional satraps Jayalalitha and Mamata are expected to record gains while Mayawati, Mulayam, Nitish and Karunanidhi will see losses. Newbies Kejriwal and Jagan Reddy are expected to put up a good show. Lalu makes a comeback in Bihar helped by suicidal move of Nitish to severe ties with BJP.

Politicalbaaba (PB) came out with its first projections in Sep. 2013 (NDA 205, UPA 128). It is noted that 200+ seats for BJP / NDA at that time was much higher than any other opinion poll. These nos. were revised in Jan. 2014 wherein we carried out detailed projections for NDA (16 Jan.), UPA (25 Jan.) and AAP (14 Jan.) culminating into a All India Projections on 30th Jan. 2014. As per PB, NDA is expected to bag 220 seats and UPA 100 seats. Currently PB predicts 30 seats in UP and 16 seats in Bihar for BJP, lower than most surveys. Alliance between Congress and BSP in UP and Lalu-Paswan-Congress in Bihar could change equations and our numbers are conservative. The same will be revisited sometime in mid of March 2014. It is heartening to see that most surveys are now starting to point towards our initial projections of Sep. 2013.

Modi leads the pack with 40-60% respondents across surveys preferring him as Prime Minister. But all of them is not converting into votes for BJP. If they manage to garner anywhere between 33-35% of total votes polled, BJP could well bag 275-300 seats. As elections near the current tally of 220-250 could witness an increase if momentum is maintained.

Party / Alliance Times Now ABP News ITBL CNN-IBN India Today Politicalbaaba
  Feb. 13 Feb. 22 Jan. 26 Jan. 24 Feb. 21 Jan. 30
NDA 227 236 251 221 226 220
w/w BJP 202 217 225  –  –  –
UPA 101 92 88 117 102 100
w/w Congress 89 73 75  –  –  –
Left Front 27 29 22 18  – 31
TMC (Mamata) 24 29 25 24  – 25
AIADMK (Jayalalitha) 27 19 25 19  – 27
DMK (Karunanidhi) 5 13 4 10  – 6
BSP (Mayawati) 21 13 20 13  – 20
SP (Mulayam) 20 14 11 11  – 14
YSR (Jagan) 13 22 11 15  – 14
TDP (Naidu) 10 7 15 12  – 10
TRS (K.C. Rao) 10 7 9 6  – 8
JDU (Nitish) 5 9 2 10  – 10
RJD (Lalu) 12 5 14 8  – 12
BJD (Naveen Patnaik) 12 16 10 13  – 15
AAP (Kejriwal) 7 10 15 9  – 11
Others 22 22 21 37 215 20
Total 543 543 543 543 543 543
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6 thoughts on “Opinion Polls (Lok Sabha): BJP Testing the Half-way Mark

  1. I hope BJP nos increases with the time. PoliticalBaaba you’re too good and that is why I personally make it a point to read your Blog…..You’re accurate and a master in political discourse…….

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  2. Two states are going to decide the 2014 election, UP and Bihar. The BJP’s flirtation with 200 seats is dependent on a good haul from these two states. The outcome in most other states seems quite clear already, and the handful of seats the BJP might or might not win in TN, Andhra/Telangana, WB and Odisha may be of some psychological importance, but will not alter the final picture much. But tell me how many seats the SP, BSP and RJD will get and I’ll tell you if Modi makes it or not. It’s neither Rahul nor Kejriwal who can stop Modi, it’s Mulayam, Mayawati and Lalu.

    http://desipoliticaljunkie.wordpress.com

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    1. Well put! Four cornered contest in UP makes it very difficult to predict. If BJP maintains it’s position in UP (10) seats and Bihar (12) seats it will get 200 seats. Additional leap it will get from UP / Bihar. Anything more than last year’s tally will reduce shortfall to majority. But I feel in UP Congress last time won 21 seats, it has many ministers from UP – Khurshid, Beni, Jaiswal, Jitin, RPN Singh etc. Most of them are about to lose. BJP will target these seats plus 5 seats of Ajit Singh’s party. So 26 seats up for grabs. Mulayam is in a weak position, minorities angry after Muzaffarnagar riots. BJP has also made significant inroads in SC / ST vote bank. It won 67 out of 71 reserved seats in assembly elections to 4 states recently. Lalu will win more but he will damage Nitish. To answer your specific question Mulayam (14), Maya (20) and Lalu (12) seats as per my estimate currently. Paswan is about to ditch Lalu’s alliance. This will impact Lalu. Difficult riddle!

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