All India Projections Lok Sabha 2014 (Revised)


The final All India Politicalbaaba Projections for Lok Sabha 2014 is out. Polls begin next week and as model code of conduct comes into being opinion polls will be banned. 2014 is expected to throw a hung Parliament in line with elections since 1989.

Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to emerge as the largest alliance with 230 seats (up 99 seats from 2009). The alliance includes among others Shiv Sena (Maharashtra), Akali Dal (Punjab), MDMK / PMK / DMDK (Tamil Nadu) and Lok Janshakti Party (Bihar). BJP is expected to record its best tally ever with ~200 seats.

NDA is expected to do well in Uttar Pradesh (38; +28 from last time), Maharashtra (28; +8), Gujarat (21; +6), Madhya Pradesh (23; +7), Rajasthan (20; +16) and Bihar (20; +8). Majority of its seats (150) are expected to come from these 6 states which is predominantly Hindi speaking / understanding belt. Here Modi wave is strong. Modi’s Other Backward Caste (OBC) factor would also work here. NDA’s seats would double in these six states compared to 2009 despite losing  big ally in Janata Dal (United) which had bagged 20 seats last time.

Seats could go up if the alliance sweeps UP and Bihar. Among other states NDA is expected to sweep Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. It has a tough fight up its sleeve in Punjab. In Punjab its NDA which is fighting anti-incumbency against its Akali Dal led state govt. Plus a united Congress here would prevent a sweep and scores would be balance here. NDA is expected to throw a surprise in Tamil Nadu with 8 seats. The alliance with Vaiko, Ramadoss, Vijaykanth is strong and it would emerge as the second largest combination ahead of DMK. The grand alliance there is a deliberate ploy by BJP to corner Amma who declined to enter into a pre-poll alliance. Modi has held many rallies in North Eastern states and I would not be surprised if they do well there as well. In Karnataka re-entry of Yeddyurappa has changed equations and BJP will score more than Congress though lesser than 2009 performance.

Poor candidate selection, over reliance on Modi and severe infighting among top party leaders is one of the main reasons why BJP is expected to get a majority on their own. As camapign heats up, undecided voters may tilt towards NDA due to TINA (there is no alternative) factor and NDA may even end up getting 250 seats on its own.

United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by Congress is expected to get 112 seats (half of what it got in 2009). UPA consists of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) National Conference (NC), Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). The alliance has been hit severely by desertions mainly of Trinamool Congress (TMC) and DMK.  Further its inability to forge alliances with Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will also impact its prospects. The rule of UPA I & II has been engulfed with record corruption scams, high inflation, unemployment, complete halt of economic growth and weak leadership. There is huge anti-incumbency against Congress which is the reason it will be trounced. Congress is set to record its lowest tally ever with ~90 seats.

UPA is losing seats in Uttar Pradesh (-12), Andhra Pradesh (-28), Haryana (-9), Rajasthan (-16), Delhi (-7), Kerala (-8) and Maharashtra (-11). In Seemandhra it is losing to the state parties YSR Congress & Telugu Desam Party (TDP) because of bifurcation of Telangana. In Telangana it will compete with TRS and BJP to get credit for creation of state. In Delhi Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will ruin it while farmer suicides and Vadra land deals will nail it in Maharashtra and Haryana respectively. Only in the state of Karnataka perhaps it will do better than last time.

Third Front has been grounded before it took off. The Communists were trying to prop up the front but seat sharing talks with Jaya broke down in Tamil Nadu. Plus Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) were not to keen.

Left Front is expected to bag 30 seats (W. Bengal, Kerala and Tripura), AIADMK 25 seats in Tamil Nadu, Mamata’s TMC 25 seats in Bengal and debutante AAP 11 seats. TDP and Jagan’s YSR Congress will sweep Seemandhra. Samajwadi Party (-10) and Janata Dal (United) (-14) will receive a drubbing. Biju Janata Dal will continue its dominance in Odisha. TRS will gain in Telangana as it is credited with creation of the state. Others combined will get 201 seats up 14 from last time. However, they are not a united block and all of them will decide their independent course of action.

State / UT Seats UPA NDA Others SP BSP JDU Left  BJD AIADMK YSR TDP AAP TRS TMC
Arunachal Pradesh 2 1 1
Assam 14 8 4 2
Bihar 40 12 20 0 8
Jharkhand 14 3 9 2
Goa 2 0 2
Gujarat 26 5 21
Haryana 10 1 6 1 2
Himachal Pradesh 4 1 3
Jammu & Kashmir 6 3 1 2
Karnataka 28 11 14 2 1
Kerala 20 5 1 0 14
Madhya Pradesh 29 6 23
Chattisgarh 11 3 8
Maharashtra 48 14 28 4 2
Manipur 2 2 0
Meghalaya 2 2 0
Mizoram 1 1 0
Nagaland 1 1 0
Orissa 21 3 2 16
Punjab 13 6 7
Rajasthan 25 5 20
Sikkim 1 1 0
Seemandhra 25 0 0 1 14 10
Tamil Nadu 39 0 8 6 25
Telangana 17 5 3 1 8
Tripura 2 0 0 2
UP 80 9 38 2 12 18 1
Uttarakhand 5 1 4
West Bengal 42 1 1 15 25
Andaman 1 0 1
Daman & Diu 1 0 1
Dadra&Nagar 1 0 1
Delhi 7 0 3 4
Pondicherry 1 1 0
Lakshadweep 1 1 0
Chandigarh 1 0 0 1
Total 543 112 230 23 12 18 8 31 16 25 14 10 11 8 25
In 2009  543 225 131 50 22 21 22 22 14 9 0 6 0 2 19
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15 thoughts on “All India Projections Lok Sabha 2014 (Revised)

  1. Should the people of India believe that, when comparing the position of NDA in 2009 and 2014, there will be a gain of 5 seats?? Do you believe this proposition after seeing the massive support Narendra Modi is getting from all the states of India??

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  2. I totally agree with you political baaba….NDA going above 230 looking very difficult…I personally think it is perfect analysis and a realistic one……Keep it up….Thanks for sharing…..

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  3. There are a few states that could turn up some very interesting results this time. One of them is Odisha. CSDS-Lokniti says that the BJP vote share will reach a whopping 30% and that they may win 3-7 seats. NDTV-Hansa, on the other hand, suggests that BJP will lose 2% of their vote share from last time. Obviously, one of them is going to end up with egg on their face come counting day. In Delhi, reports of the rapid depletion of AAP vote and resurgence of BJP support seem a little exaggerated, but we may all be surprised on May 16th. Tamil Nadu, though, is the most fascinating of all. If the NDA manages to give the DMK/AIADMK a run for their money and the BJP actually wins seats on its own without an alliance with either of them, history will truly have been made. Because of the “rainbow alliance”, the BJP is contesting only a few seats and its vote share will get diluted, but if it pips the Congress even in seat share, we’ll be looking at an a breakthrough for them unthinkable even a few months ago.

    http://desipoliticaljunkie.wordpress.com

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    1. Thanks. Odisha is interesting. Sadly with BJP piggybacking on BJP for most of the recent times, BJP has no state leadership. Plus Naveen has a clean image. With Modi going hard at him, BJP could surprise and emerge as the 2nd largest party there ahead of Congress I feel. Delhi is tricky and would still be 3-4 / 4-3 between AAP and BJP. AAP support base more or less intact I would say. In Tamil Nadu, BJP alliance expected to be ahead of UPA for sure, that’s a done deal. Might also be ahead of dmk.

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      1. I notice you give BJP 2 seats in Odisha in your estimates. So you obviously expect them to cross the crucial 25% vote share in that state. I think it’s a toss-up; wouldn’t be surprised if they still draw a blank, but I find it hard to believe that they will actually lose votes, as the NDTV-Hansa poll suggests. Meanwhile, the BJP candidate in Nilgiris in TN had his candidacy rejected over paperwork, and this was one of only two seats in that state (the other being Kanyakumari) where BJP had a chance to win on its own. The PMK candidate has similarly been found ineligible in Chidambaram. This severely dents the NDA’s projected tally from the state.

        http://desipoliticaljunkie.wordpress.com

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  4. I am damn sure with nda gaining momemtem with raising modi effect and great antiincombency Nda ll surly reach to 272+ seats on 16 may .

    (nda means bjp -ss-tdp-ljp -sad & tamil parties ,etc)

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  5. There is great scope for nda creating wonders by reaching 300+
    nda can do better than expected in
    tamil nadu,cg ,mp,gugrat,rajestan, maharastra ,andra,up,bihar,assam ,orissa,hariyana, etc

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