The final All India Politicalbaaba Projections for Lok Sabha 2014 is out. Polls begin next week and as model code of conduct comes into being opinion polls will be banned. 2014 is expected to throw a hung Parliament in line with elections since 1989.
Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to emerge as the largest alliance with 230 seats (up 99 seats from 2009). The alliance includes among others Shiv Sena (Maharashtra), Akali Dal (Punjab), MDMK / PMK / DMDK (Tamil Nadu) and Lok Janshakti Party (Bihar). BJP is expected to record its best tally ever with ~200 seats.
NDA is expected to do well in Uttar Pradesh (38; +28 from last time), Maharashtra (28; +8), Gujarat (21; +6), Madhya Pradesh (23; +7), Rajasthan (20; +16) and Bihar (20; +8). Majority of its seats (150) are expected to come from these 6 states which is predominantly Hindi speaking / understanding belt. Here Modi wave is strong. Modi’s Other Backward Caste (OBC) factor would also work here. NDA’s seats would double in these six states compared to 2009 despite losing big ally in Janata Dal (United) which had bagged 20 seats last time.
Seats could go up if the alliance sweeps UP and Bihar. Among other states NDA is expected to sweep Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. It has a tough fight up its sleeve in Punjab. In Punjab its NDA which is fighting anti-incumbency against its Akali Dal led state govt. Plus a united Congress here would prevent a sweep and scores would be balance here. NDA is expected to throw a surprise in Tamil Nadu with 8 seats. The alliance with Vaiko, Ramadoss, Vijaykanth is strong and it would emerge as the second largest combination ahead of DMK. The grand alliance there is a deliberate ploy by BJP to corner Amma who declined to enter into a pre-poll alliance. Modi has held many rallies in North Eastern states and I would not be surprised if they do well there as well. In Karnataka re-entry of Yeddyurappa has changed equations and BJP will score more than Congress though lesser than 2009 performance.
Poor candidate selection, over reliance on Modi and severe infighting among top party leaders is one of the main reasons why BJP is expected to get a majority on their own. As camapign heats up, undecided voters may tilt towards NDA due to TINA (there is no alternative) factor and NDA may even end up getting 250 seats on its own.
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by Congress is expected to get 112 seats (half of what it got in 2009). UPA consists of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) National Conference (NC), Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). The alliance has been hit severely by desertions mainly of Trinamool Congress (TMC) and DMK. Further its inability to forge alliances with Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will also impact its prospects. The rule of UPA I & II has been engulfed with record corruption scams, high inflation, unemployment, complete halt of economic growth and weak leadership. There is huge anti-incumbency against Congress which is the reason it will be trounced. Congress is set to record its lowest tally ever with ~90 seats.
UPA is losing seats in Uttar Pradesh (-12), Andhra Pradesh (-28), Haryana (-9), Rajasthan (-16), Delhi (-7), Kerala (-8) and Maharashtra (-11). In Seemandhra it is losing to the state parties YSR Congress & Telugu Desam Party (TDP) because of bifurcation of Telangana. In Telangana it will compete with TRS and BJP to get credit for creation of state. In Delhi Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will ruin it while farmer suicides and Vadra land deals will nail it in Maharashtra and Haryana respectively. Only in the state of Karnataka perhaps it will do better than last time.
Third Front has been grounded before it took off. The Communists were trying to prop up the front but seat sharing talks with Jaya broke down in Tamil Nadu. Plus Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) were not to keen.
Left Front is expected to bag 30 seats (W. Bengal, Kerala and Tripura), AIADMK 25 seats in Tamil Nadu, Mamata’s TMC 25 seats in Bengal and debutante AAP 11 seats. TDP and Jagan’s YSR Congress will sweep Seemandhra. Samajwadi Party (-10) and Janata Dal (United) (-14) will receive a drubbing. Biju Janata Dal will continue its dominance in Odisha. TRS will gain in Telangana as it is credited with creation of the state. Others combined will get 201 seats up 14 from last time. However, they are not a united block and all of them will decide their independent course of action.
|State / UT||Seats||UPA||NDA||Others||SP||BSP||JDU||Left||BJD||AIADMK||YSR||TDP||AAP||TRS||TMC|
|Jammu & Kashmir||6||3||1||2|
|Daman & Diu||1||0||1|