About the Author:

Ganesh Mahnar is a keen observer of  Indian Political System. He is by qualification a Natural Resource Economist, working on Livelihood enhancement in Rural India. He respects integrity and honesty in every walk of life. Has agreed to provide data for this post for Politicalbaaba. http://www.politicalbaaba.com thanks him for his gesture and good work. Twitter handle:@ganeshmahnar
Ganesh Manhar predicts 24 seats for BJP+ (including Paswan’s LJP), 5 seats for Lalu’s RJD and 1 seat for Nitish’s JDU. On 10 seats there is tough fight between BJP and RJD and this could either ways. Among them are:
1. Saran: Rajiv Pratap Rudy (BJP) and Rabri Devi (RJD)
2. Sasaram: Meira Kumar (Congress) and Chedi Paswan (BJP)
3. Buxar: Ashwani Choubey (BJP) and Jagadanand Singh (Congress)
Politicalbaaba estimates 20 seats for BJP+, 12 seats for RJD+ and 8 seats for JDU.
Constituency Category Polling Date Winning Chances Nearest Opposition
Valmiki Nagar GEN 12-May BJP+ RJD+
Paschim Champaran GEN 12-May BJP+ safe seat RJD+
Purvi Champaran GEN 12-May BJP+ RJD+
Sheohar GEN 7-May Tough fight
Sitamarhi GEN 7-May BJP+  
Madhubani GEN 30-Apr Chances of RJD+ BJP+
Jhanjharpur GEN 30-Apr Tough fight
Supaul GEN 24-Apr RJD+ BJP+
Araria GEN 24-Apr BJP+ RJD+
Kishanganj GEN 24-Apr Depends on Muslim votes, If divison even BJP has a chance
Katihar GEN 24-Apr BJP+ RJD+
Purnia GEN 24-Apr BJP+ RJD+
Madhepura GEN 30-Apr RJD+ JDU
Darbhanga GEN 30-Apr Tough fight with 50-50 BJP & RJD
Muzaffarpur GEN 7-May BJP+ any one
Vaishali GEN 12-May Tough fight with 50-50  RJD & LJP
Gopalganj (SC) 12-May BJP+ RJD+
Siwan GEN 12-May BJP+ RJD+
Maharajganj GEN 7-May RJD+ BJP+
Saran GEN 7-May Tough fight b/w Rudi & rabri
Hajipur (SC) 7-May BJP+ LJP JDU
Ujiarpur GEN 7-May Tough Fight with 50-50 RJD & BJP
Samastipur (SC) 30-Apr BJP+ LJP RJD+
Begusarai GEN 30-Apr BJP+ JDU+CPI
Khagaria GEN 30-Apr Tough Fight Chances of anyone
Bhagalpur GEN 24-Apr BJP+ RJD+
Banka GEN 24-Apr BJP+ any party
Munger GEN 17-Apr BJP+ LJP RJD+
Nalanda GEN 17-Apr JDU LJP
Patna Sahib GEN 17-Apr BJP+  
Pataliputra GEN 17-Apr BJP+ RJD+
Arrah GEN 17-Apr BJP+ (R. K. Singh) any one
Buxar GEN 17-Apr BJP+ (Ashwani Choubey) RJD+ (Jagadanand Singh)
Sasaram (SC) 10-Apr Tough to predict Mira Kumar may loose
Karakat GEN 10-Apr Tough Fight with 50-50 RJD & BJP
Jahanabad GEN 17-Apr BJP+ JDU
Aurangabad GEN 10-Apr Tough Fight Chances of anyone
Gaya (SC) 10-Apr BJP+ RJD+
Nawada GEN 10-Apr BJP+ RJD+
Jamui (SC) 10-Apr LJP JDU