1. Background

Bihar is a very important state as it sends 40 Members of Parliament (MPs) to Lok Sabha (7%). It will definitely play a key role in formation of next govt. at the center. Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal (United) has been Chief Minister of the state since 2005.

In Bihar, in the last three elections main fight has been between Lalu + Paswan (Rashtriya Janata Dal + Lok Janshakti Party) and BJP + JDU (Nitish). Congress has been a marginal player.  It supported Lalu in 2004 but didn’t form alliance in 2009. Nitish ditched BJP last year suddenly realizing BJP was a communal party. Real reason Nitish jealous of Modi becoming campaign head and eventually PM candidate of NDA. Modi kya hai aakhir ek CM hi to hai, main bhi CM hoon. That’s what he thought and committed harakiri.

BJP and JDU no longer together, JDU & RJD both wooed Congress, in the end Congress went ahead with lalu. Party whose VP Rahul Gandhi talks about eradicating corruption & takes credit for Lokpal tied up with fodder scam convicted Lalu’s party. Double standards at its height! Meanwhile amid all this khichdi, Paswan went back to NDA fold, acknowledging Modi wave. Mauke pe chauka, basically chakka!

2. Historical Results

Parties 1952 1957 1962 1967 1971 1977 1980 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009
Congress 44 41 39 34 39 0 30 48 4 1 2 5 4 3 2
Communist Party of India 0 0 1 5 5 0 4 2 4 8 3 0 0 0 0
Samta Party 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 10 0 0 0
BJP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 5 18 20 23 5 12
JD (U) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 6 20
JD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 31 22 1 0 0 0
RJD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 7 22 4
Bhartiya Lok Dal 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Regional Parties of Jharkhand 6 12 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 6 1 0 0 0 0
Others 4 0 13 14 9 1 20 4 3 1 2 1 2 4 2
Total 54 53 53 53 53 54 54 54 54 52 54 54 54 40 40

Source: Statistical Reports, Election Commission of India

Undivided Bihar had 54 seats which reduced to 40 seats post bifurcation of state (Jharkhand). Bihar was a Congress bastion till 1984. From 1989 onwards it got influenced by mandal (reservation) & kamandal (Ram mandir) movement. Janata Dal and its various offshoots Samata Party /JDU / RJD along with BJP have dominated the scene here.

3. Demographics of State

Hindus represent 81% of population while Muslims represent 18.5%.

4. 2009 Lok Sabha Elections – Very Close Finish

The last Lok Sabha elections was very closely fought. 13 / 40 seats were won on a very thin margin of <5%. Out of these 10 seats were won by parties other than BJP. BJP was 2nd in 4 of these seats. These seats will be targeted by BJP this time.

5. 2014 Projections

Politicalbaaba estimates 20 seats for NDA, 12 for UPA (including RJD) and 8 for JDU. JDU will lose big time and may even get less than 5.

For seat wise projections for Bihar, please see link below contributed by reader Ganesh Manhar:

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=6411&action=edit

 

 

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