1. Background

Maharashtra, a Western state, sends 48 MPs to Lok Sabha (9% of total strength) and will play a key role in next govt. formation. UPA and NDA are the two major forces here. Congress along with Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has been in power in the state for the past 14 years. BJP allies with Shiv Sena which is a major regional party carrying Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy. Raj Thackeray estranged cousin of Uddhav has floated his own party Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) which also has decent presence. 

There were rumours that Pawar wanted to desert the sinking ship of UPA and join NDA, but Shiv Sena resisted. NCP has denied this vehemently. BJP leader Nitin Gadkari made efforts to bring in MNS into NDA. Again Shiv Sena resisted. However, Gadkari managed to convince Raj of not putting candidates against BJP. Shiv Sena wasn’t happy but everything is now ok. MNS cut into a lot of traditional Shiv Sena votes and led to defeat of NDA in many seats in 2009. That’s why BJP wanted a patch up, but egoistic brothers refused. BJP has decided to go ahead with Shiv Sena, their long time ally and stronger party among the two. BJP has tied up with three other smaller parties RPI (Athavale), Swabhimani Paksha and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha which have pockets of influence in rural Maharashtra.

2. Historical Results

Parties 1952 1957 1962 1967 1971 1977 1980 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009
Congress 40 38 41 37 42 20 39 43 28 38 15 33 10 13 17
BJP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 5 18 4 13 13 9
Shiv Sena 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 15 6 15 12 11
NCP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 9 8
Others 4 28 3 8 3 28 9 5 9 1 0 5 4 1 3
Total 44 66 44 45 45 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
Source: Statistical Reports, Election Commission of India
 
The state was a Congress bastion till 1984, after that fortunes have balanced between UPA & NDA. 
 
3. Demographics of State
 
Hindus account for 82% of population and Muslims 16%.
 
4. 2009 Elections – Very Close Finish
 
In 2009, 18 / 48 seats were won a victory margin of <5%. Very close finish indeed. Mumbai North East 2,900 and Mumbai North 5,800 was the victory margin.
 
5. 2014 Projections
 
Maharashtra UPA govt. is suffering from double anti-incumbency. There is strong anger against Central Govt. for price rise. Plus there is local resentment against corruption scams like Adarsh, poor plight of farmers. MNS will play spoli sport, else NDA would have swept. Politicalbaaba estimates 28 seats for NDA, 14 for UPA, 2 for AAP and 4 for others including MNS and Independents.
 
 
 
 
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