About the Author:
Ganesh Mahnar is a keen observer of Indian Political System. He is by qualification a Natural Resource Economist, working on Livelihood enhancement in Rural India. He respects integrity and honesty in every walk of life. Has agreed to provide data for this post for Politicalbaaba. http://www.politicalbaaba.com thanks him for his gesture and good work.
Twitter handle:@ganeshmahnar
Ganesh Manhar predicts 47 seats for BJP+ (including Apna Dal). 18 seats have very close contest and are tough to predict according to him. Views expressed by the author are personal.
Politicalbaaba estimates 38 seats for NDA, 12 seats for Samajwadi Party, 18 seats for Bahujan Samaj Party, 9 seats for Congress, 2 for Others and 1 for AAP.
S. No. | Constituency | Category | Polling Date | Winning Party | Runner Up |
1 | Saharanpur | GEN | 10-Apr | Tough Fight BJP & cong | |
2 | Kairana | GEN | 10-Apr | BJP | |
3 | Muzaffarnagar | GEN | 10-Apr | BJP | |
4 | Bijnor | GEN | 10-Apr | BJP | RLD |
5 | Nagina | (SC) | 17-Apr | BJP | |
6 | Moradabad | GEN | 17-Apr | Tough Fight BJP & BSP | Anyone |
7 | Rampur | GEN | 17-Apr | SP | Cong |
8 | Sambhal | GEN | 17-Apr | BJP | SP |
9 | Amroha | GEN | 17-Apr | BJP | BSP |
10 | Meerut | GEN | 10-Apr | BJP | SP |
11 | Baghpat | GEN | 10-Apr | RLD Ajit Singh | BJP |
12 | Ghaziabad | GEN | 10-Apr | BJP | AAP + cong |
13 | Gautam Buddha Nagar | GEN | 10-Apr | BJP | SP |
14 | Bulandshahr | (SC) | 10-Apr | bjp | |
15 | Aligarh | GEN | 10-Apr | BJP | SP |
16 | Hathras | (SC) | 24-Apr | BSP | |
17 | Mathura | GEN | 24-Apr | Tough fight RLD Vs BJP | |
18 | Agra | (SC) | 24-Apr | BJP | SP |
19 | Fatehpur Sikri | GEN | 24-Apr | RLD Amar Singh | any one |
20 | Firozabad | GEN | 24-Apr | BJP | BSP |
21 | Mainpuri | GEN | 24-Apr | SP Safe seat | |
22 | Etah | GEN | 24-Apr | BJP | SP |
23 | Badaun | GEN | 17-Apr | BSP | |
24 | Aonla | GEN | 17-Apr | BJP | |
25 | Bareilly | GEN | 17-Apr | BJP | SP |
26 | Pilibhit | GEN | 17-Apr | BJP | SP |
27 | Shahjahanpur | (SC) | 17-Apr | any one BSP, SP, BJP | |
28 | Kheri | GEN | 17-Apr | BJP | BSP |
29 | Dhaurahra | GEN | 30-Apr | BJP | |
30 | Sitapur | GEN | 30-Apr | BJP | |
31 | Hardoi | (SC) | 24-Apr | any one BSP, SP, BJP | |
32 | Misrikh | (SC) | 30-Apr | tough to call | |
33 | Unnao | GEN | 30-Apr | BJP | |
34 | Mohanlalganj | (SC) | 30-Apr | SP | |
35 | Lucknow | GEN | 30-Apr | BJP Safe seat | |
36 | Rae Bareli | GEN | 30-Apr | Cong | BJP |
37 | Amethi | GEN | 7-May | Cong | BJP |
38 | Sultanpur | GEN | 7-May | BJP | SP |
39 | Pratapgarh | GEN | 7-May | tough fight ong, SP | |
40 | Farrukhabad | GEN | 24-Apr | BJP | Salman Khurseed on fourth |
41 | Etawah | (SC) | 24-Apr | SP | BJP |
42 | Kannauj | GEN | 24-Apr | SP | BJP |
43 | Kanpur | GEN | 30-Apr | BJP | Sri Prakash Jaiswal |
44 | Akbarpur | GEN | 24-Apr | BJP | congress |
45 | Jalaun | (SC) | 30-Apr | close | |
46 | Jhansi | GEN | 30-Apr | BJP | |
47 | Hamirpur | GEN | 30-Apr | any one BSP, SP, BJP | |
48 | Banda | GEN | 30-Apr | fight to close | |
49 | Fatehpur | GEN | 30-Apr | BJP | |
50 | Kaushambi | (SC) | 7-May | any one BSP, SP, BJP | |
51 | Phulpur | GEN | 7-May | tough to predict four cornered | |
52 | Allahabad | GEN | 7-May | BJP | SP |
53 | Barabanki | (SC) | 30-Apr | BJP | Cong |
54 | Faizabad | GEN | 7-May | SP | BJP |
55 | Ambedkar Nagar | GEN | 7-May | BSP | SP |
56 | Bahraich | (SC) | 7-May | BJP | SP |
57 | Kaiserganj | GEN | 7-May | BJP | |
58 | Shravasti | GEN | 7-May | bjp | |
59 | Gonda | GEN | 7-May | BJP | Beni Prasad Verma loose |
60 | Domariyaganj | GEN | 12-May | BJP | |
61 | Basti | GEN | 7-May | tough to call | |
62 | Sant Kabir Nagar | GEN | 7-May | tough to call | |
63 | Maharajganj | GEN | 12-May | BJP upper hand but tough fight | |
64 | Gorakhpur | GEN | 12-May | BJP | SP |
65 | Kushi Nagar | GEN | 12-May | BJP | RPN Singh |
66 | Deoria | GEN | 12-May | BJP | SP |
67 | Bansgaon | (SC) | 12-May | tough fight | |
68 | Lalganj | (SC) | 12-May | bjp | |
69 | Azamgarh | GEN | 12-May | SP | BJP |
70 | Ghosi | GEN | 12-May | Mukhtar Ansari | |
71 | Salempur | GEN | 12-May | BJP | |
72 | Ballia | GEN | 12-May | tough fight | not easy |
72 | Jaunpur | GEN | 12-May | BJP | |
74 | Machhlishahr | (SC) | 12-May | tough fight | |
75 | Ghazipur | GEN | 12-May | BJP | |
76 | Chandauli | GEN | 12-May | BJP | |
77 | Varanasi | GEN | 12-May | BJP | No One in fight (most will loose deposit) |
78 | Bhadohi | GEN | 7-May | bjp | |
79 | Mirzapur | GEN | 12-May | bjp+ | |
80 | Robertsganj | (SC) | 12-May | bjp |
from jaunpur, Dhananjay singh is critical for BJP.
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Thanks Rana Pratap Singh.
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I think in Ghaziabad Sughan Rawat it a tougher candidate than Raj Babbar and shazia Ilmi, he can even win here. its not an easy fight for VK Singh.
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BJP from Sambhal …:????
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Thanks for this deep analysis…Most of your predictions looks good…i just had some doubts over sambhal as BJP candidate is not that strong…had there been a little more famous candidate the seat was clear this time…
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Thanks Vicky. You are spot on. Sambhal is tight. See this article which talks about seats which have gone to polls. https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/04/20/seat-wise-analysis-of-87-232-seats-where-polls-have-been-held-nda-ahead/
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Also participate in contest and win exciting prizes. https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/04/21/elections-2014-contest-q-no-1/
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Bjp vs cong barabanki
no way its walk over for sp outside chance of bjp only if gets more than 20% muslim vote
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Excellent feedback…by the author….Thank You…..Politicalbaaba your estimates can be a reality…let us see how things unfold….
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This is pre-poll prediction for many constituencies pls update it to post-poll .
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Post poll pls see seat by seat projections phase I – VIII under elections 2014 page on blog.
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Tell me post-poll prediction of lok sabha 42- kannauj
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Kannauj bhabhiji is losing it seems!
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who is wining against BAHU RANI of neta ji?
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NDA. Thanks
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Bijnor is clean sweep for BSP, MALOOK NAGAR JI
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