Elections from Phase I to Phase V have been completed. 232 seats (43% of Lok Sabha strength) have gone to polls.
UPA was ahead with 108 seats with NDA second at 70 seats. UPA dis well in Rajasthan, Kerala, Maharashtra and Haryana while NDA did well in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.
1. Bihar (13 seats): Bihar is witnessing complete polarization of MY votes for Lalu and Congress (UPA). The state has always voted on caste based factors but MY is voting en-block this time. There is Modi wave but seat wise caste dynamics are also playing a key role. NDA is clearly winnning Munger, Nawada, Gaya, Patna Sahib, Karakat and Buxar. There is a close contest in Patliputra (all 3 main candidates are Yadavs). In Arrah R.K.Singh’s position has weakened in the last few days before polls. In Sasaram, Meira Kumar has a tough fight but may eventually win. In Aurangabad, Nikhil Kumar might win and in Jamui Chirag Paswan may sneak in. NDA 6, UPA 3, Close Contest 3, JDU 1.
2.Chandigarh (1 seat): This is a tough call, triangular contest between Pawan Kumar Bansal, Kiron Kher and Gul Panag. Basal has a good hold and railways scam is not a big issue here. Congress may win because of split of anti incumbency against center votes.
3. Delhi (7 seats): Delhi is the trickiest. Triangular contest makes it difficult to predict. AAP has lost some ground, but its their karmabhoomi. Congress has won some lost ground. BJP is strong but candidate selection not great. Sandeep Dikshit, Ajay Maken, JP Agarwal have one good work but Shiela Dixit also did good work and still lost. So that’s not a criteria. 2 candidates of BJP – Manoj Tiwary and Udit Raj are facing outsider tag issues. Harshvardhan may benefit from split in Mulsim votes between Ashutosh and Sibal. Mahesh Giri has Sri Ravishankar’s machinery working for him. Ajay Maken may win because of his clean image and good work. All seats are being keenly contested. I would not put my neck out on Delhi.
4. Haryana (10 seats): Modi wave and anti incumbency against Congress is working here. UPA will retain only one seat Rohtak (candidate CM’s son). Naveen Jindal expected to lose. NDA expected to win 6 seats (Ambala, Sonipat, Sirsa, Bhiwani, Karnal, Faridabad). Indain National Lok Dal is winning 2 seats (Kurukshetra and Hisar). These is a tough fight between BJP and INLD in Gurgaon. BJP 6, UPA 1, INLD 2, Close fight 1.
5. Jharkhand (10 seats): NDA doing well here. Clearly winning 7 seats (Kodarma, Jamshedpur, Singhbum, Khunti, Lohardaga, Palamu, Hazaribag). Existing MP R. Pandey of BJP might lose from Giridh and S.K. Sahay of Congress might lose from Ranchi. BJP 7, UPA 1, Close fight 2.
6. Orissa (21 seats): Here is a clear Modi wave, not a wave, a tornado. Despite no local leadership / organization, BJP is expected to do very well. Could even emerge as the largest party in Lok Sabha. People don’t want a Third Front govt. and are voting for Naveen Patnaik in the state assembly polls and Modi in the Lok Sabha polls. There is a close fight in Kalahandi, Cuttack and Bhibaneshwar. If Modi would have done more rallies, BJP could have got more seats. BJP 8, Biju Janata Dal 7, Congress 3, Close fight 3.
7. Uttar Pradesh (21 seats): Seats which have completed polls are in Western UP and NCR (near Delhi). Jats have a sizeable population here, traditional supporters of Rashtriya Lok Dal (Ajit Singh), this time they are voting for BJP. Strong polarization is visible and Muslims voting en-block to defeat BJP candidates. BJP expected to win half of the seats which went to polls. Ajit Singh may lose from Baghpat. General V.K. Singh is facing a tough fight but may sneak in. BJP 11, Close contest 8, SP & BSP 1 each.
8. W. Bengal (4 seats): 2 seats (Darjeeling and Cooch Behar) going to Trinamool Congress. Left retaining two seats. Damage for Left of 2 seats. All 4 were with Left earlier. NDA is losing Darjeeling its only seat in W.Bengal in 2009.
9. Karnataka (28 seats): Karnataka has been voting for the state govt. party for the past 15 years. It always votes for party which doesn’t end up forming govt. at the center. By this logic UPA should be doing well. Return of Yeddyurappa has strengthened BJP and prevented it from getting decimated. AAP has made the Bangalore seats fight interesting. 4 seats in 2009 were decided on a victory margin of <8,000 votes. All of these along with Bangalore South and Davangere are witnessing close contest. UPA 12, NDA 8, JD(S) 3 and close contests 5.
10. Madhya Pradesh (19 seats): There is a clear BJP / Modi wave here. Good work done by state CM S.S. Chouhan will help BJP. Apart from its traditional seats of Guna and Chhindwara, UPA unlikely to get any more. Though, Shahdol, Hosangabad and Rajgarh are also witnessing close contest. NDA 13, UPA 2 and close contest 4 seats.
11. Rajasthan (20 seats): In Rajasthan, wave is not the correct word. There is Modi frenzy. Complete sweep, RSS has full capture of all booths, even Congress MLAs voting for Modi. Apart from Churu (candidate issues), BJP will sweep all seats. There is a close fight in Udaipur though. NDA 18, BSP 1, Close fight 1. Congress heavyweights Joshi, Pilot, Ola, G Vyas, Mirdha all expected to lose.
12. Maharashtra (29 seats): This is one state where Congress govt. is in power in state for the past 10 years. So there is state as well as central govt. anti-incumbency. Plus Modi wave. NDA 16, UPA 6, close contest 7. Gadkari, Rane and Mukul Wasnik’s seats are witnessing tough fight. Presence of MNS also cuts into NDA votes.
I don’t have on ground information from Kerala and Assam. NDA is expected to get 101 and NDA 34 seats. 47 seats have very close contest and for 27 seats (19 Kerala + 8 Assam). I don’t have any information from local sources. In Kerala, NDA is not expected to get any seats. In Assam NDA may get 2-3 seats and UPA 5-6 out of 8 seats which have gone to polls. 47 seats are seeing close contest where the victory margin is expected to be very less.
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Tables for Phase I to V Projections