Polling for Phase VI ends


Background

Voting for 117 seats finished yesterday (24th April) in Phase VI of Lok Sabha polls. This is the 2nd biggest phase of polling accounting for 22% of Lok Sabha strength. 12 states went to polls – Maharashtra (19), Uttar Pradesh (12), Rajasthan (5), Jharkhand (4), Bihar (7), J&K (1), Assam (6), Madhya Pradesh (10), Chhattisgarh (7), West Bengal (6), Tamil Nadu (39) and Pondicherry (1).

2009 Election Results

The seat wise position in the last elections was as follows:

States / UT Seats NDA UPA ADMK Left JDU DMK BSP SP Others
Assam 6 3 1             2
Bihar 7 4 1                    1       1
Chhatisgarh 7 6 1              
J&K 1   1              
Jharkhand 4 3 1              
Madhya Pradesh 10 4 6              
Maharashtra 19 8 10             1
Rajasthan 5 0 4             1
Uttar Pradesh 12 1 4         1 5 1
Pondicherry 1   1              
Tamil Nadu 39   8 9 2   19     1
W. Bengal 6   5   1          
Total 117 29 43 9 3 1 19 1 5 7

The 2009 elections to these 117 seats were a very close finish: <1% victory margin (10 seats), 1-2% (12), 2-3% (6), 3-4% (10), 4-5% (11). 49 / 117 seats were decided on a victory margin of <5%.

NDA won 29 seats and UPA 43 seats in 2009. NDA was runner up in 32 seats and in 13 of these seats it lost by <5% margin. These are the seats which it will be eyeing this time around.

Voting in Phase V

The voting % has been good this time, >55% in each state / UT except for J&K. Mumbai like Bangalore was a disappointment with only 52% voting. High voter turnout will it help Modi, only time will tell!

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Politicalbaaba estimates

Of these 117 seats, NDA is expected to win 55-60 seats. It will gain everywhere, except for perhaps Chhatisgarh. UPA will lose seats in T. Nadu, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and W. Bengal.  It is expected to get half of what it got in 2009.

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