Polling for Phase VII Ends


Background

Voting for 89 seats finished today (30th April) in Phase VII of Lok Sabha polls. This is an important phase of polling accounting for 16% of Lok Sabha strength. 9 states / union territories went to polls – Gujarat (26), Uttar Pradesh (14), Bihar (7), J&K (1),West Bengal (9), Punjab (13), Daman & Diu (1), Dadra & Nagar Haveli (1) and Telangana (17).

2009 Election Results

The seat wise position in the last elections was as follows:

State / UT Seats NDA UPA Left SP BSP TMC TRS TDP JDU Others
Dadra & Nagar Haveli 1 1                  
Daman & Diu 1 1                  
Punjab 13 5 8                
Gujarat 26 15 11                
Bihar 7 2               5  
Uttar Pradesh 14 2 6   4 2          
Telangana 17   12         2 2   1
West Bengal 9     4     5        
J&K 1   1                
Total 89 26 38 4 4 2 5 2 2 5 1

NDA won 26 seats and UPA 38 seats in 2009. NDA was runner up in 25 seats and in 8 of these seats it lost by <3% margin. These are the seats which it will be eyeing this time around.The 2009 elections to these 89 seats were a very close finish: <1% victory margin (10 seats), 1-2% (6), 2-3% (5). 21 / 89 seats were decided on a victory margin of <3%.

Voting in Phase V

The voting % has been strong this time, 66.2% vs 57.6% in 2009. W. Bengal (81.35%), Gujarat (62% vs 48% in 2009), Bihar (60%), Punjab (73%), Telangana (>70%), UP (59%), J&K (25%). Gujarat voted for its asmita as the state is home to Modi BJP’s PM candidate.

Politicalbaaba estimates

Of these 89 seats, NDA is expected to win approximately half. UPA had done very well in Telangana, Gujarat, UP and Punjab in 2009. In all these states its position is weak this time around. NDA expected to improve its position in Hindi belt of UP and Bihar, Gujarat, Punjab and Telangana. 

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