Seat Wise Predictions (Phase I – VIII): NDA inching towards majority

Background

Elections from Phase I to Phase VIII have been completed. 502 seats (92% of Lok Sabha strength) have gone to polls. Politicalbaaba undertakes a never attempted before in Indian history of polls coverage, a seat by seat predictions, based on on-ground information from its sources. A margin of error of 5-10% is possible.

2009 Results

UPA was ahead with 226 seats with NDA second at 133 seats in 2009. UPA did well in Rajasthan, Kerala, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana, Seemandhra and Haryana while NDA did well in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Karnataka.

2014 Elections

1. Bihar (34 seats): Bihar is witnessing complete polarization of MY votes for Lalu and Congress (UPA). The state has always voted on caste based factors but MY is voting en-block this time for Lalu. MY sees Nitish not competent enough to fight Modi and hence voting for Lalu. There is a Modi wave but seat wise caste dynamics are also playing a key role. NDA 12, UPA 8, Close Contest 13 and JDU 1.

2. Delhi (7 seats): Delhi is the trickiest. Triangular contest makes it difficult to predict. AAP has lost some ground, but its their karmabhoomi. Congress has won some lost ground. BJP is strong but candidate selection not great. Sandeep Dikshit, Ajay Maken, JP Agarwal have one good work but Shiela Dixit also did good work and still lost. So that’s not a criteria. 2 candidates of BJP – Manoj Tiwary and Udit Raj are facing outsider tag issues. Harshvardhan may benefit from split in Mulsim votes between Ashutosh and Sibal. Mahesh Giri has Sri Ravishankar’s machinery working for him. Ajay Maken may win because of his clean image and good work. All seats are being keenly contested. I would not put my neck out on Delhi.

3. Haryana (10 seats): Modi wave and anti incumbency against Congress is working here. UPA will retain only one seat Rohtak (candidate CM’s son). Naveen Jindal expected to lose. NDA expected to win 6 seats (Ambala, Sonipat, Sirsa, Bhiwani, Karnal, Faridabad). Indain National Lok Dal is winning 2 seats (Kurukshetra and Hisar). These is a tough fight between BJP and INLD in Gurgaon. BJP 6, UPA 1, INLD 2, Close fight 1.

4. Jharkhand (14 seats): NDA doing well here. Clearly winning 8 seats. Existing MP R. Pandey of BJP might lose from Giridh and S.K. Sahay of Congress might lose from Ranchi. BJP 8, UPA 1, Close fight 5. Lalu has teamed up with Shibu Soren (JMM) and Congress. MY combination voting en-block for this combine similarly as in Bihar. Adivasi votes though are divided. This helping BJP.

5. Orissa (21 seats): Here is a clear Modi wave, not a wave, a tornado. Despite no local leadership / organization, BJP is expected to do very well. Could even emerge as the largest party in Lok Sabha. People don’t want a Third Front govt. and are voting for Naveen Patnaik in the state assembly polls and Modi in the Lok Sabha polls. There is a close fight in Kalahandi, Cuttack and Bhibaneshwar. If Modi would have done more rallies, BJP could have got more seats. BJP 8, Biju Janata Dal 7, Congress 3, Close fight 3. State would show the nation what is the difference between state and national polls.

6. Uttar Pradesh (62 seats): Seats which have completed polls are in Western UP, NCR (near Delhi), Central UP and part of Eastern UP. Jats have a sizeable population in Western UP, traditional supporters of Rashtriya Lok Dal (Ajit Singh), this time they are voting for BJP. Strong polarization is visible and Muslims mostly voting en-block to defeat BJP candidates. Situation similar to Bihar, Yadav vote divided here though and not going to Mulayam en-block. Advantage for BJP here is that there are many claimants to defeat BJP in UP unlike Bihar where there is only Lalu. Here BSP, SP, Congress all claim to defeat Modi. Muslims will vote for strongest candidate on a seat by seat basis, but it is not perfect science. They will definitely err on judgement on some seats and disagreements will lead to some split as well. This is key state to BJP. This will make or break Modi’s dreams. BJP expected to win half of the seats which went to polls. Ajit Singh may lose from Baghpat. General V.K. Singh is facing a tough fight but may sneak in. BJP 30, Close contest 21, SP 6, UPA 2 & BSP 3.

7. Karnataka (28 seats): Karnataka has been voting for the state govt. party for the past 15 years. It always votes for party which doesn’t end up forming govt. at the center. By this logic UPA should be doing well. Return of Yeddyurappa has strengthened BJP and prevented it from getting decimated. AAP has made the Bangalore seats fight interesting. 4 seats in 2009 were decided on a victory margin of <8,000 votes. All of these along with Bangalore South and Davangere are witnessing close contest. UPA 9, NDA 9, JD(S) 1 and close contests 9.

8. Madhya Pradesh (29 seats): There is a clear BJP / Modi wave here. Good work done by state CM S.S. Chouhan will help BJP. But this is not Rajasthan. So there will not be a clean sweep. Apart from its traditional seats of Guna and Chhindwara, UPA will bag a few more. NDA 21, UPA 7 and BSP 1.

9. Rajasthan (25 seats): In Rajasthan, wave is not the correct word. There is Modi frenzy. Complete sweep, RSS has full capture of all booths, even Congress MLAs voting for Modi. There is a close fight in Dausa and Udaipur though. NDA 23, Close fight 2. Congress heavyweights Joshi, Pilot, Ola, G Vyas, Mirdha all expected to lose.

10. Maharashtra (48 seats): This is one state where Congress govt. is in power in state for the past 10 years. So there is state as well as central govt. anti-incumbency. Plus Modi wave. NDA 28, UPA 10, close contest 9 and MNS 1. Gadkari, Rane and Mukul Wasnik’s seats are witnessing tough fight. Presence of MNS also cutting into NDA votes.

11. Kerala (20 seats): This has traditionally been a two way contest between UPA and Left. NDA has slight chances on Thiruvanathpuram seat and may open its account in the state. UPA 12, Left 7 and Close contest 1.

12. Assam (14 seats): This is one state where Congress govt. is in power in state for the past 10 years. So there is state as well as central govt. anti-incumbency. Plus Modi wave. UPA 6, NDA 5, Others 2 and Close contest 1.

13. Gujarat (26 seats): Gujaratis have voted for gujarati asmita and to see Modi as PM. That’s why you see a significant increase in voting from 48% in 2009 to 62% in 2014. Some traditional seats will be retained by Congress – Anand, Bardoli, Porbandar and Dahod. NDA 22, UPA 4.

14. Tamil Nadu (39 seats): A traditional two way contest between AIADMK and DMK has become interesting this time with NDA forging a strong alliance of MDMK, PMK and DMDK plus a few smaller parties. This has changed the equation. Modi wave is clearly visible in the state. This will upset Amma’s chances and she won’t get 30 seats she was dreaming of. AIADMK 20, DMK 10, NDA 8 and close contest 1.

15. Telangana (17 seats): Chandrasekhar Rao of TRS seems to be getting the credit for creation of separate state. He is expected to sweep the state with 9 seats. UPA 3, NDA 2, Others 1 and close contest on 2 seats.

16. Punjab (13 seats): Anti-incumbency seems to be working here against NDA. Plus united Congress workforce in state is negating Modi wave. AAP is also playing spoiler in few constituencies. NDA and UPA likely to get 5 seats each with 3 very close contests including Jaitley’s and Vinod Khanna’s seats.

17. West Bengal (25 seats): Mamata seems to be holding onto her vote bank. Though Modi is popular this is not converting into seats because of very low support base. Congress will be decimated. TMC 15, Left 9 and Congress 1. BJP has a chance in one of the seats where it has put up stars Bappi Lahiri / P. C. Sarkar, George Baker etc. NDA is losing Darjeeling its only seat in W.Bengal in 2009.

18. Uttarakhand (5 seats): Last year UPA swept the state. This time NDA is expected to turn the tables and bag all the seats. Poor handling of flood situation, strong anti-incumbency wave against center and Modi wave will help it sail through.

19. Himachal Pradesh (4 seats): In 2009 BJP won 3 seats when UPA performed exceptionally well in center. This time it is expected to bag all seats.

20. Seemandhra (25 seats): Congress is wiped out in this state. TDP + BJP alliance and YSR Congress are caught in an intense battle. NDA has a slight edge here, both Modi and Naidu are popular in urban areas. Jagan has edge in rural areas due to sympathy as people think sending him to jail was unjust. TDP is expected to bag 12, YSR Congress 8 and close contest 5.

Out of the 502 seats which have completed polls, NDA is expected to get 224 (+68) followed by UPA with 84 (-139) seats. 89 seats are seeing very close contest where the victory margin is expected to be very less. This could go anyway and determine the outcome of the Parliament. But still NDA will be ahead even if all close contests go to UPA (probability low).

Out of 89 close contests, 21 are in UP which in most probability could go to SP / BSP / UPA and not to BJP.

3 Scenarios

Modi Wave = 224 + 25% (68) = 241

Modi Frenzy = 224 + 50% (68) = 258

Modi Tsunami = 224 + 75% (68) = 275

NDA could land up anywhere between 241 – 275 seats. I am working on the close contest seats and All India nos. will be released before any exit polls on 12th May.

Special Thanks

Politicalbaaba thanks its readers / followers / supporters / friends / media friends who helped in compiling this list. Will keep on updating list when more information pours in. So if you have info. just email me at politicalbaaba@gmail.com or tweet me @politicalbaaba.

Tables for Seat by Seat All India Lok Sabha (Phase I to VIII) Projections

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzkrVZdhLG_0ZDVWZThTVWZiV2s/edit?usp=sharing