All India Lok Sabha Projections: NDA very close to magical figure


Background

Elections from Phase I to Phase IX have been completed. All the seats have gone to polls. Politicalbaaba undertakes a never attempted before in Indian history of polls coverage, a seat by seat predictions, based on on-ground information from its sources. A margin of error of 5-10% is possible. This assumes fair elections and rigging is not factored in.

2009 Elections

UPA was ahead with 231 seats with NDA second at 139 seats in 2009. UPA did well in Rajasthan, Kerala, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana, Seemandhra and Haryana while NDA did well in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Karnataka.

2014 Elections

1. Bihar (40 seats): Bihar is witnessing complete polarization of MY votes for Lalu and Congress (UPA). The state has always voted on caste based factors but MY is voting en-block this time for Lalu. MY sees Nitish not competent enough to fight Modi and hence voting for Lalu. There is a Modi wave but seat wise caste dynamics are also playing a key role. NDA 20, UPA 19 and JDU 1.

2. Delhi (7 seats): Delhi is the trickiest. Triangular contest makes it difficult to predict. AAP has lost some ground, but its their karmabhoomi. Congress has won some lost ground. BJP is strong but candidate selection not great. Sandeep Dikshit, Ajay Maken, JP Agarwal have one good work but Shiela Dixit also did good work and still lost. So that’s not a criteria. 2 candidates of BJP – Manoj Tiwary and Udit Raj are facing outsider tag issues. Harshvardhan may benefit from split in Mulsim votes between Ashutosh and Sibal. Mahesh Giri has Sri Ravishankar’s machinery working for him. Ajay Maken may win because of his clean image and good work. All seats are being keenly contested. NDA 5, UPA 1, AAP 1.

3. Haryana (10 seats): Modi wave and anti incumbency against Congress is working here. UPA will retain only one seat Rohtak (candidate CM’s son). Naveen Jindal expected to lose. NDA expected to win 6 seats (Ambala, Sonipat, Sirsa, Bhiwani, Karnal, Faridabad). Indain National Lok Dal is winning 2 seats (Kurukshetra and Hisar). These is a tough fight between BJP and INLD in Gurgaon. BJP 7, UPA 1, INLD 2.

4. Jharkhand (14 seats): NDA doing well here. Clearly winning 8 seats. Existing MP R. Pandey of BJP might lose from Giridh and S.K. Sahay of Congress might retain its seat from Ranchi. BJP 10, UPA 4. Lalu has teamed up with Shibu Soren (JMM) and Congress. MY combination voting en-block for this combine similarly as in Bihar. Adivasi votes though are divided. This helping BJP.

5. Orissa (21 seats): Here is a clear Modi wave, not a wave, a tornado. Despite no local leadership / organization, BJP is expected to do very well. Could even emerge as the largest party in Lok Sabha. People don’t want a Third Front govt. and are voting for Naveen Patnaik in the state assembly polls and Modi in the Lok Sabha polls. If Modi would have done more rallies, BJP could have got more seats. BJP 8, Biju Janata Dal 9, Congress 4. State would show the nation what is the difference between state and national polls.

6. Uttar Pradesh (80 seats): Seats which have completed polls are in Western UP, NCR (near Delhi), Central UP and part of Eastern UP. Jats have a sizeable population in Western UP, traditional supporters of Rashtriya Lok Dal (Ajit Singh), this time they are voting for BJP. Strong polarization is visible and Muslims mostly voting en-block to defeat BJP candidates. Situation similar to Bihar, Yadav vote divided here though and not going to Mulayam en-block. Advantage for BJP here is that there are many claimants to defeat BJP in UP unlike Bihar where there is only Lalu. Here BSP, SP, Congress all claim to defeat Modi. Muslims will vote for strongest candidate on a seat by seat basis, but it is not perfect science. They will definitely err on judgement on some seats and disagreements will lead to some split as well. This is key state to BJP. This will make or break Modi’s dreams. BJP expected to win half of the seats which went to polls. Ajit Singh may lose from Baghpat. General V.K. Singh is facing a tough fight but may sneak in. NDA 42, SP & BSP combined 26, UPA 10, Others 2.

7. Karnataka (28 seats): Karnataka has been voting for the state govt. party for the past 15 years. It always votes for party which doesn’t end up forming govt. at the center. By this logic UPA should be doing well. Return of Yeddyurappa has strengthened BJP and prevented it from getting decimated. AAP has made the Bangalore seats fight interesting. 4 seats in 2009 were decided on a victory margin of <8,000 votes. All of these along with Bangalore South and Davangere are witnessing close contest. UPA 14, NDA 12, JD(S) 2.

8. Madhya Pradesh (29 seats): There is a clear BJP / Modi wave here. Good work done by state CM S.S. Chouhan will help BJP. But this is not Rajasthan. So there will not be a clean sweep. Apart from its traditional seats of Guna and Chhindwara, UPA will bag a few more. NDA 23, UPA 5 and BSP 1.

9. Rajasthan (25 seats): In Rajasthan, wave is not the correct word. There is Modi frenzy. Complete sweep, RSS has full capture of all booths, even Congress MLAs voting for Modi. There is a close fight in Dausa and Udaipur though. NDA 23, UPA 2. Congress heavyweights Joshi, Pilot, Ola, G Vyas, Mirdha all expected to lose.

10. Maharashtra (48 seats): This is one state where Congress govt. is in power in state for the past 10 years. So there is state as well as central govt. anti-incumbency. Plus Modi wave. NDA 30, UPA 17 and MNS 1. Gadkari, Rane and Mukul Wasnik’s seats are witnessing tough fight. Presence of MNS also cutting into NDA votes.

11. Kerala (20 seats): This has traditionally been a two way contest between UPA and Left. NDA has slight chances on Thiruvanathpuram seat and may open its account in the state. UPA 12, Left 7 and NDA 1.

12. Assam (14 seats): This is one state where Congress govt. is in power in state for the past 10 years. So there is state as well as central govt. anti-incumbency. Plus Modi wave. UPA 7, NDA 5, Others 2.

13. Gujarat (26 seats): Gujaratis have voted for gujarati asmita and to see Modi as PM. That’s why you see a significant increase in voting from 48% in 2009 to 62% in 2014. Some traditional seats will be retained by Congress – Anand, Bardoli, Porbandar and Dahod. NDA 22, UPA 4.

14. Tamil Nadu (39 seats): A traditional two way contest between AIADMK and DMK has become interesting this time with NDA forging a strong alliance of MDMK, PMK and DMDK plus a few smaller parties. This has changed the equation. Modi wave is clearly visible in the state. This will upset Amma’s chances and she won’t get 30 seats she was dreaming of. AIADMK 21, DMK 10, NDA 8.

15. Telangana (17 seats): Chandrasekhar Rao of TRS seemed to be getting the credit for creation of separate state. BUt Congress has done very well in the municipal elections. UPA 8, TRS 6, NDA 2, Others 1.

16. Punjab (13 seats): Anti-incumbency seems to be working here against NDA. Plus united Congress workforce in state is negating Modi wave. AAP is also playing spoiler in few constituencies. NDA 6 and UPA likely to get 7 seats. Close contests in Jaitley’s and Vinod Khanna’s seats.

17. West Bengal (42 seats): Mamata seems to be holding onto her vote bank. Though Modi is popular this is not converting into seats because of very low support base. Congress will be decimated. TMC 26, Left 13, NDA 1 and Congress 1.

18. Uttarakhand (5 seats): Last year UPA swept the state. This time NDA is expected to turn the tables and bag all the seats. Poor handling of flood situation, strong anti-incumbency wave against center and Modi wave will help it sail through.

19. Himachal Pradesh (4 seats): In 2009 BJP won 3 seats when UPA performed exceptionally well in center. This time it is expected to bag all seats.

20. Seemandhra (25 seats): Congress is wiped out in this state. TDP + BJP alliance and YSR Congress are caught in an intense battle. NDA has a slight edge here as evidenced by better performance in municipal elections, both Modi and Naidu are popular in urban areas. Jagan has edge in rural areas due to sympathy as people think sending him to jail was unjust. TDP is expected to bag 14, YSR Congress 11 and Congress nil.

All in all NDA is expected to get 266 (+127) followed by UPA with 131 (-100) seats. Very close to magic figure of 272. NDA’s tally is dependent upon its performance in UP (42 seats). Any reduction in UP’s tally will reduce NDA’s tally by similar no. A lot of seats (~100) are seeing very close contest where the victory margin is expected to be very less. UPA is performing better than expected because of improved performance in Bihar (thanks to Lalu), Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala. Polarization seems to have helped Congress. This elections I feel will also see reduction in tally of regional parties and people voting for national parties.

Special Thanks

Politicalbaaba thanks its blog readers / followers on twitter & facebook / supporters / friends / media friends who helped in compiling this list. Unfortunately media friends can’t be named due to compliance issues.

Ganesh Mahnar, Mayank Tayal, Vidya Sagar Trivedi, Pappunjay Kumar, Diwakar Dutta, Sanjay Singh, Prasad Narayan, Venkat Gandhi, Samarjeet Narayan, Madroyjockey, Joy Chakraborty, Joginder Kumar Tiwary, Vinay Singh, Murali, Gaurav T., Dhaval Shah, Himanshu Goel, Shoaib Ahmed and many others.

Will keep on updating list when more information pours in. So if you have info. just email me at politicalbaaba@gmail.com or tweet me @politicalbaaba.

Tables for Seat by Seat All India Lok Sabha (Phase I to VIII) Projections

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzkrVZdhLG_0SE9uUEhBWWRwOEE/edit

Poll:

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30 thoughts on “All India Lok Sabha Projections: NDA very close to magical figure

  1. If your prediction is correct,Modi govt.becomes a reality unless all the rest do not join hands togather.Some parties such as BJD,AIDMK should not join the combination.Then it will be desaster foe the nation.

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  2. Exit Polls -> Most Polls gave 28 in Bihar which I feel is very high. I agree with 20 for Bihar.
    Similarly most polls gave 50 Plus in UP. I too feel BJP may inch closer to 50 rather than in 40 for this reason which you had stated.
    In UP
    Yadav’s vote are split
    Most OBC votes are going towards MODI
    Most Brahmin votes are going towards MODI
    Vysya/Baniya Votes are going towards MODI
    Certain section of DALIT votes( Well to do ones) are going towards MODI.
    Minority Votes are getting SPLIT between parties.
    Shia Votes might go towards Modi.
    RLD is loosing in Western UP to MODI.
    Easter UP you have given 10-12 seats.
    In other Parts of UP BJP is not weak and can give a real good fight.

    Considering all of the above, I feel 42 looks low in UP. I would give close to 50.

    In TN 8 might be high , I expect 4-6 seats.

    Interestingly some of the channels gave 0 in Orissa to MODI and BJD is taking it all. Not sure what is correct.

    I agree with other nos. So loss in Orissa would be compensated by UP. So I expect a similar figure of 260 Plus for MODI. Either he would just cross or just fall short.

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  3. I too agree wid anand when it comes for Tamil Nadu and Odisha..Nda will put up its tally in between 245-255..Lets see…
    TRS,TMC,BSP,SP has ruled out to support Modi..
    YSR congress and dmk,probably ADMK might end up supporting Modi..

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  4. UPA from Moradabad(UP): It is incorrectly predicted. ST Hasan(SP) and Sarvesh Singh(BJP) are in tough fight here. Good chances of BJP. Thanks

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  5. The Finally tally for NDA will be between 225 & 235.
    it will be a repeat of Delhi Assembly elections 2013.

    NDA will fall short of around 25-35 seats. and for govt formation it will need the support of Jayalalita.

    BSP will do better in UP than anybody has anticipated. it’s maya who will hit BJP the most.

    Lets wait for Friday Morning !!

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  6. Seeing the results of last 5 lok sabha elections from 1998 on indiavotes.com i have come to a conclusion after seeing results on more than 400 seats(80 seats of UP from 98-2009) that out of 400 only around 15 seats which makes 3-4% times the party having more than 32% vote looses that particular seat.So we can conclude that on any seat 32% is the voteshare on which you will certainly win that seat .NOw bsp and bjp are evenly spread in almost all seats and sp and congress have somewhat more presence in some pockets and not tht uniformly distributed.So 20% for congress can win them 20 seats in 09 but 22 % in 2004 bjp got 10.Now probability wise even at 32% bjp or bsp will bag half ie 40 seats and some exit polls are showing bjp as high as 40%
    so here ‘s my prediction for every voteshare
    if 32%-40seats
    .36% 50 seats
    38%-55 seats
    40%-60 seats
    41%65 seats
    there are only abt 5 seats where bjp is getting more than 50% votes and around 10 seats where they are not in the race or less than 25% votes..almost on every other seat bjp voteshare is around 30-45%.and at 32% you will win so very high number of seats is very well possible for bjp if the voteshare the agencies are showing is correct.

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    1. Thanks. In 1999, at 36.49% vote share, BJP got highest 57 seats (including Uttarakhand). Hindus of UP if they vote without taking into account the cast factor, BJP will win 50+ and Modi will be PM.

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    2. Yesterday I was analysing the prospects in UP and the poll percentage of BJP. How it has fallen from 37% levels in 1999 to 18% levels in 2009. Seats consequently have fallen from 57 to 10 during the same period. In this period BJP has lost support of Lodhs (Kalyan Singh). Kurmis will support this time due to Apna Dal alliance. Jats with BJP after Muzaffarnagar. Telis / Sahus with BJP due to Modi same caste. If BJP is able to get majority of these caste votes then it is 30%+ vote share. Now if they are able to break into Dalits – remember they won 67/71 reserved seats in 4 state elections in dec. 13. 25% vote share means 5% on overall all basis and that’s a big no. This akes it 35%+.

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  7. Today’s Chanakya’s exit poll, giving BJP a massive majority on its own with 291 seats and a historic 340 for NDA (made up of incredible figures like 70 from UP, 20 from Karnataka and 8 from WB), is easy to dismiss out of hand. But they were very close with their 2009 projections, and their predictions for the Assembly polls from December were spot on (no other agency captured the extent of the BJP sweep in Rajasthan and MP, and the impressive debut of AAP in Delhi, as well as they did). They seem to have a knack for vote-to-seat conversion, which is where most pollsters falter. I do think their projections for Lok Sabha 2014 are overly optimistic for Modi, but there is a clear trend in NDA’s favor (that all the exit polls agree on) and Today’s Chanakya may well be the closest to sensing its extent.

    http://desipoliticaljunkie.wordpress.com

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    1. Yesterday I was analysing the prospects in UP and the poll percentage of BJP. How it has fallen from 37% levels in 1999 to 18% levels in 2009. Seats consequently have fallen from 57 to 10 during the same period. In this period BJP has lost support of Lodhs (Kalyan Singh). Ku rims will support this time

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    2. Sorry incomplete, Kurmis will support this time due to Apna Dal alliance. Jats with BJP after Muzaffarnagar. Telis / Sahus with BJP due to Modi same caste. If BJP is able to get majority of these caste votes then it is 30%+ vote share. Now if they are able to break into Dalits – remember they won 67/71 reserved seats in 4 state elections in dec. 25% vote share means 5% on overall all basis and that’s a big no.

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  8. i have tried to study the voteshare of c-voter,india today cicero,csds of every state and the kind of voteshare they are predicting and voteshare-seats conversion is conservative definitely .
    assam- 6
    jharkhand- 12
    gujarat- 24
    karnataka- 13
    mp- 26
    chhatisgarh- 10
    maharashtra- 19(12+1+1)
    punjab- 2(4)
    rajasthan- 23
    andhra pradesh 4(+13)
    bihar- 22(3+1)
    orrisa- 5
    uttar pradesh- 57(+1)
    west bengal- 2
    arunachal- 1
    goa- 2
    harayana- 7(+1)
    himachal- 3
    uttrakhand- 5
    kerala- 0
    tamil nadu- 2(+3)
    union territories(including 6 of delhi) 9
    kashmir 2
    brackets- (allies)
    total 256 bjp alone(40 allies atleast) (with 33% voteshare bjp 6% allies)
    nda 306-308
    I know the above prediction is too bullish but it is simply based on the voteshare given by poll agencies.They generally give conservative figures to remain on the safe side.In 2009 elections their voteshare for congress and UPA was spot on but since they remain conservativ so they gave 153-130 advantage to congress .Generally their voteshare is always accurate its only the seats conversion which are horribly wrong sometimes..
    the only problem this time is that modi wave is so strong that while collecting samples bjp supporters may be more vocal or for ex a person voting for congress refused to answer.. so +-3 vote margin can exist
    IN bihar people are saying abt M-Y consolidation but still the voteshare difference offered by poll agencies is 10-12% difference which is pretty huge .so i m confident of my prediction

    Hope i can win a voucher if i am correct(i know the last date is over )just joking 😛

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    1. Ha ha! I will send you something else, send me your address via email. Problem with exit polls is there is 3% margin of error. 3% is likely to be the victory margin on most seats this time because of polarisation, multi cornered contest etc. 113 / 543 seats in 2009, victory margin was 3%. So that’s the issue. If 3%+ votes could easily go 300+, if 3% less votes, 220 levels is what I fear. But according to my estimates and sources 250 is the floor. Can’t go beyond this. No cap on upper limit though!

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  9. yeah most of the seats will be decided by that margin..but still the kind of voteshare difference they are giving is very very huge kind of 1977 or 1984 scenario..In i bipolar contest even a 8-10% voteshare diff. gives you 80-20 seats ateast and bjp is getting upwards on average 15% difference 50-35 in gujarat MP rajasthan this is very very huge
    A minimum of 90%+ seats in these states is what data suggests.Only very massive strongholds of congress can prevent whitewash.So not more than 5-6 seats combined can what congress can get from here.

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    1. UP (80), TN (39), WB (42), Delhi (7), Odisha (21), AP (42), Assam (14), Haryana (10), Bihar (40) All these are witnessing multi cornered contests. Lets wait for 16th all answers will be out on that day!

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  10. Jayalalitha has her own ambition to become PM..BJD is her natiral ally..moreover Mamata and mayawati may strengthen her claim..
    so how would she support Narendra modis candidature for PM…??
    She reflected it probably..
    If NDA falls short by 30-40 seats,it would be difficult to form govt under Namo..What do u think PB???

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