#BiharElections – Politicalbaaba Bihar Projections


Season of opinion polls as the first phase of Bihar elections approach. In these elections, Nitish is fighting to keep his chair, Lalu to save his career, and Amit Shah to maintain his strategist image.

Polls can have national ramifications too if Janata + Congress alliance manages to win. A Janata Party like experiment can be witnessed in national elections in 2019 on;y the actors will change. BJP and Janata Party entities fought against Indira’s Congress in 1977. This time Congress and Janata Parivar may fight against BJP. Anyways long time for this to happen if at all..

Coming back to Bihar elections, it seems to be a neck to neck fight with BJP led NDA’s 39% vote share vs Janata’s aggregate vote share of 45% in Lok Sabha polls 2014.

Opinion polls as usual in a tight election, are not helping matters with different predictions adding to the suspense. 2 opinion polls (India TV and ABP news) have predicted Janata win while other two channels (India Today and Zee News) have predicted NDA win. This raises questions about efficacy of opinion polls in tight elections like Delhi assembly elections (2013 and 2015).  My article on opinion polls below – “Opinion Polls add to the suspense in crucial Bihar Polls”:

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/09/13/opinion-polls-add-to-the-suspense-in-crucial-biharpolls/

I don’t have the resources to conduct an opinion poll but have many people on the ground (volunteers) who feed me information. Based on my research, historical trends, expected vote shares, BJP performance in last assembly polls and Lok Sabha and feedback on the ground, NDA is expected to win the assembly elections.

The momentum is clearly with NDA as explained in my previous article – “Why NDA is expected to win in Bihar?”:

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/?p=8232&preview=true

According to Politicalbaaba, NDA is expected to win 123-147 seats, Janata alliance 89-102 and Others 7-18. To understand the detailed methodology and rationale watch out for my Five Part Series (link below):

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/10/biharelections-who-will-win-bihar-part-v-final-2/

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