Friends here is an update on Phase 2.

NDA doing relatively well compared to Janata alliance in this phase. Remember Janata alliance was leading in 20 of the 32 seats gone to polls both in last assembly polls and in 2010 Lok Sabha polls.

As per on ground feedback & research NDA is expected to win 16-18 seats and Janata alliance 14-16 seats with a strong bias towards the higher end of range for NDA. So final is 14 for Janata and 18 for NDA. So it is a gain of 6 seats for NDA and a similar loss for Janata.

It is increasingly becoming difficult to carry a seat by seat projections in case of a close contest. However due to popular demand as this is the only blog which carries seat by seat predictions I am taking the risk and continuing for Phase 2 I am fairly confident of ground level data in these 32 seats.

For Phase 3-5 it may be a toned down district wise prediction. I have still to update Phase I. 12 day break will give me the time.

District Wise Performance

In Gaya out of 10 seats, the final tally is expected to be 6-4 in favour of NDA.

In Rohtas out of 7 seats, the final tally is expected to be 4-3 in favour of NDA.

In Jehanabad, it is expected to be 2-1 in favour of NDA.

In Arwal, Janata alliance and NDA will split the honours 1-1.

In Aurangabad, it is expected to be 4-2 in favour of NDA or even a tie 3-3.

In Kaimur, it is expected to be a tie 2-2.

Seat Wise Performance

Bhabhua (General) – NDA expected to win.

Chainpur (General) – Janata expected to win.

Karaghar (General) – Janata expected to win.

Dinara (General) – NDA expected to win.

Kurtha – Janata expected to win.

Ghoshi – Janata expected to win.

Goh (General) – Janata expected to win.

Nabinagar (General) – Janata expected to win.

Rafiganj – NDA expected to win.

Gurua – Janata expected to win.

Sherghati – NDA expected to win.

Imamganj (SC) – Janata expected to win.

Tikari – NDA expected to win.

Ramgarh (General) – NDA expected to win.

Sasaram – NDA expected to win.

Nokha (General) – Janata expected to win.

Dehri (General) – Janata expected to win.

Karakat (General) – NDA  expected to win.

Arwal – NDA expected to win.

Jahanabad (General) – Janata expected to win.

Makhdumpur (SC) – NDA expected to win.

Obra (General) – NDA expected to win.

Barachatti (SC) – Janata expected to win.

Bodh Gaya (SC) – NDA expected to win.

Belagani (General) – NDA expected to win.

Atri (General) – NDA expected to win.

Mohania (SC) – Janata expected to win.

Chenari (SC) – NDA expected to win.

Kutumba (SC) – Janata expected to win.

Aurangabad (General) – NDA expected to win.

Gaya Town (General) –  NDA expected to win.

Wazirganj (General) – NDA expected to win.

For seat wise details please refer to my piece in Niticentral.

http://www.niticentral.com/2015/10/16/bihar-2015-phase-2-seatwise-analysis-335274.html

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