Friends an update on #Phase 1 of #BiharPolls (post poll analysis) which has been pending for some time. Many friends, followers, well wishers have been asking for this on facebook, twitter, blog, emails etc. Apologies for delay.

Recap

Polls were held in 49 seats in Phase I. In 2010 Janata alliance (JDU, RJD & Congress) fighting separately had won 34 of these seats. In Lok Sabha elections in May 2014, NDA was leading in 36 of these seats, Janata alliance in 12 and CPI in 1 (note CPI fought LS polls in alliance with JDU). So its an important phase for both gathbandhans.

If you aggregate the vote share of JDU, Congress and RJD as if they were fighting together in Lok Sabha then Janata alliance was leading in 41, NDA in 7 and CPI in 1 seat. This doesn’t show the true picture as in 12 of the seats out of these 41 seats CPI was contesting instead of JDU and is not part of the alliance now. Adjusting for this anamoly, Janata alliance was leading in 33, NDA in 15 and CPI in 1 seat.

Post Polls #Phase 1 Predictions

Honest admission, it is increasingly becoming difficult to make a seat by seat predictions in this close contest where there is no clear wave in favour of either alliance. Volunteers, contacts (media / local politicians / friends / relatives) have developed a cold feet and are unable to gauge the clear trend on the ground to enable a seat by seat analysis. I can carry a thorough n in-house research and trend analysis but without credible / confident view from the battle ground, it becomes tough for me to take calls on that basis.

Phase 1 is very tricky and due to this reason, I will refrain from doing a seat by seat prediction and rather do a district wise prediction based on feedback and research.

In Phase 1, NDA is expected to pull back / snatch 7 seats from Janata alliance and win 21/49 seats. Janata alliance is expected to win 26 while others (CPI) is expected to bag 2 seats. An error of + / – 2 seats is possible.

District Wise 

In Banka 5 seats, expected to be a tie NDA 2, Janata 2 and CPI 1.

In Begusarai, another tie 3-3-1.

In Bhagalpur, Janata is leading with 4-3. High Muslim population (17.7%). Janata facing serious rebels in 2 seats.

In Jamui, another tie 2-2-. Both NDA and Janata facing serious rebels in 1 seat each.

In Khagaria, Janata is leading with 3-1. Problem is BJP fighting on only 1/4 seat.

In Lakhisarai, there is a tie 1-1.

In Munger, Janata alliance ahead with 2-1.

In Nawada, NDA alliance ahead with 3-2. High Mahadalit population (17.5%).

In Sheikhpura there is a tie 1-1.

In Samastiur, Janata alliance ahead with 6-4. Janata facing serious rebellion in 3 seats and NDA in 1 seat.

For seat wise candidate list of each alliance, their caste, 2010 winner and runner up, 2014 Lok Sabha leader in assembly segments please have a look at this google doc.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pB7C4_cMxo6G2MkJfENHjSQJNASCPm9N92rMzlbSnBE/edit?usp=sharing

PB encourages readers to provide feedback on the below analysis and share insights about assembly seats.

For detailed seat wise analysis and dynamics please have a look below.

Kalyanpur (SC)

Seat was won by JDU which defeated RJD in 2010 by 15k votes. JDU changed candidate, 9 Paswan candidates contesting, CPI & BSP got >7% votes in 2010. LJP has given ticket to Paswan’s nephew. JDU has given ticket to Paswan’s cousin (rebel). So it’s a family fight for Ram Vilas Paswan. BJP was leading in LS polls. Constituency has sizeable Muslim population (>16.5%).

Warisnagar (General)

JDU defeated RJD to win the seat in 2010 by 19.5k votes. JDU retains the winning candidate. LJP has got seat from NDA quota and fielded a Yadav. Left Front got >7% votes in 2010. Congress was leading marginally in LS polls. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>17%).

Morwa (General)

JDU defeated RJD to win the seat in 2010 by 7k votes. JDU has changed candidate, last time winner joined BJP but not contesting. BJP has fielded a Bhumihar candidate. Shiv Sena >5% votes in 2010. BJP was leading in LS polls.

Sarairanjan (General)

Seat was won by JDU which defeated RJD in 2010 by 17.5k votes. JDU has retained the last time winner. Both BJP and JDU have fielded upper caste candidates. CPI got 3% vote last time in 2010. BJP was leading in LS polls from this seat.

Bibhutipur (General)

JDU defeated CPM candidate in 2010 by a margin of 12k votes. Both JDU and CPM have retained candidates. LJP which was 3rd last time has changed candidate. BJP was leading in LS polls from this seat. Triangular contest.

Hasanpur (General)

JDU (Yadav) defeated RJD to win the seat by a thin margin of 3k votes. RJD candidate has turned rebel and contesting from Pappu Yadav’s party, CPM got 8% vote share in 2010, CPI also put up candidate, Left front has a friendly fight here. RJD was leading in LS polls from this seat. Seat has gone to RLSP from NDA quota which has fielded a MBC candidate.

Cheria Bariarpur (General)

JDU defetaed LJP in 2010 by very thin margin of 1k votes. Both have retained candidates (Koeri). 2 Mahto & 2 Paswan candidates, CPI has 12% vote last time but changed candidate this time. BJP was leading from this seat in LS polls.

Matihani (General)

JDU handsomely defeated Congress in 2010 by 24k votes. CPI got 9% vote in 2010 however changed candidate this time. BJP is fighting the seat from NDA quota. BJP was leading from this seat in LS polls.

Khagaria (General)

JDU defeated LJP handsomely in 2010 by 27k votes. Seat has gone to HAM, no rebel candidate from LJP, CPM has decent presence 3.5% vote share in 2010. LJP was leading from this seat in LS polls.

Beldaur (General)

JDU same candidate, LJP has changed candidate but no rebel. CPI has strong presence 10% vote share in 2010. Independent Vijay Pandav also has decent vote share (8%) in 2010.

Parbatta (General)

RJD candidate defeated JDU in 2010 by 800 votes. Seat has gone to JDU and RJD candidate has rebelled fighting on Aap aur Ham Partry ticket. LJP was leading comfortably in this seat. BJP has got the ticket from NDA quota.

Gopalpur (General)

JDU candidate defeated RJD in 2010 by a good margin of 25k votes. JDU has retained candidate, RJD candidate has turned rebel and is fighting as an independent. BJP has fielded a Yadav from NDA quota. JMM candidate got 8% vote share last time. Neither JMM nor the independent candidate fighting this time. In LS polls RJD was leading in this seat. Constituency has sizeable Muslim population (>16.5%).

Sultanganj (General)

JDU candidate defeated RJD in 2010 by 5k votes. JDU has retained candidate, RJD candidate has not turned rebel. RLSP has got ticket from NDA quota. So it’s a battle between two Kurmis. In LS polls BJP was leading marginally in this seat. BSP has a decent presence in the seat (5% vote share).

Nathnagar (General)

JDU candidate defeated RJD in 2010 by 5k votes. JDU has retained candidate, RJD candidate has turned rebel and is fighting on Pappu Yadav’s party JAP. Third Front has a friendly fight with SP giving ticket to an independent who was 4th last time. LJP has been allotted ticket from NDA quota and has fielded a Kushwaha. In LS polls RJD was leading comfortably in this seat. 3/11 & 2/11 candidates are Mandal & Muslims. Constituency has sizeable Muslim population (>16.5%).

Amarpur (General)

JDU candidate defeated RJD in 2010 by big margin of 18k votes. JDU has retained candidate, RJD candidate has turned rebel and is fighting as an independent. Anil Kr. Singh of Loktrantic Samata Dal has significant influence (7% vote share). RLSP has been allotted ticket from NDA quota. CPI has strong presence (3rd) and has retained candidate. In LS polls BJP was leading in this seat.

Dhoraiya (SC)

JDU candidate defeated RJD in 2010 by 8k votes. JDU has retained candidate, no rebel candidate from RJD. RLSP has been allotted ticket from NDA quota. CPI has strong presence (3rd) and has retained candidate. In LS polls CPI was leading comfortably in this seat. Triangular contest.

Belhar (General)

JDU candidate defeated RJD in 2010 by 8k votes. JDU has retained candidate, no rebel candidate from RJD. BJP has given ticket to independent who got 8.4% vote share last time. So it is a fight between Yadavs. JMM has strong presence (9%) vote share but has changed candidate. RJD  was leading comfortably in LS polls. 3/11 Yadav candidates. In LS polls CPI polled 26% votes in tie up with JDU.

Tarapur (General)

JDU candidate defeated RJD (2nd) by 14k votes and Congress (3rd) in 2010. JDU has changed candidate. RJD candidate Shakuni Chaudhary is NDA candidate from Manjhi’s party HAM. JMM has strong presence (8%) vote share. Last time Congress candidate is JMM candidate this time. LJP was leading in LS polls. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>11%).

Jamalpur (General)

JDU candidate defeated LJP in 2010 by hansome margin of 21k votes. JDU has retained candidate, LJP has changed candidate. Pappu Yadav is contesting from JAP ticket. No rebel candidate. JMM has strong presence (8%) vote share but is not fighting this time. LJP was leading comfortably in LS polls. Triangular contest.

Lakhisarai (General)

BJP won the seat comfortably in 2010 defeating RJD by whopping 60k votes. This time seat has gone to JDU quota. No rebel candidate from RJD. LJP was leading from the seat in 2010 LS polls.

Sheikhpura (General)

JDU won the seat last time, RJD and Congress were 2nd and 3rd. JDU retained its winning candidate. No rebel from RJD and Congress. CPI has strong presence (8.4%) vote share but it has changed candidate. Last time CPI candidate has tuned rebel and is contesting as an independent. LJP was leading marginally from the seat in 2010 LS polls. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>11%).

Hisua (General)

BJP won the seat defeating LJP in 2010 by 4k votes. BJP has retained the candidate. JDU has got the seat from Janata quota and has fielded a Yadav. Congress candidate who finished 3rd (7% vote share) has turned rebel and is contesting on SP ticket. BJP was leading comfortably from this seat in LS polls. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>17%).

Warsaliganj (General)

JDU won the seat defeating Congress in 2010 by 5k votes. JDU has retained the candidate. Congress candidate has switched sides and is contesting on BJP ticket. BJP was leading comfortably from this seat in LS polls.

Jhajha (General)

JDU won the seat defeating RJD in 2010 by 10k votes. JDU has retained the candidate. RJD candidate has turned rebel and fighting as an independent. BJP has also fielded a Yadav. Last time JMM candidate who finished 3rd has shifted to BSP. Predominantly Muslim and Yadav candidates fielded. LJP was leading from this seat in LS polls. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>11%).

Samastipur (General)

RJD defeated JDU in 2010 by 2k votes. RJD has retained candidate. BJP has fileded a Kushwaha candidate. 5 Muslim candidates, Shiv Sena got 6.9% votes in 2010, however they have changed candidate. LJP was leading from this seat in LS polls.

Ujiarpur (General)

RJD defeated JDU candidate by 13k votes in 2010. RJD has changed candidate, no rebel. CPM got 14.6% vote share in 2010. BJP is fighting from NDA quota. Fight between two Kushwahas. BJP was leading from this seat in LS polls.

Mohiuddinagar (General)

BJP defeated RJD in 2010 by 14k votes. Both BJP & RJD have changed candidate. RJD rebel is candidate of Pappu Yadav’s party. BJP was leading from this seat in LS polls.

Teghra (General)

BJP won the seat in 2010 by 6k votes, but has changed candidate this time. No rebel. CPI was 2nd and has retained its candidate. Seat has fallen into RJD quota from Janata. BJP was leading comfortably in this seat in LS polls.

Sahebpur Kamal (General)

JDU won the seat in 2010 by 11k votes defeating RJD. Seat has gone to RJD quota. JDU MLA has become MP from Rajya Sabha so no rebel candidate. RJD has fielded the same candidate which finished 2nd last time. LJP has fielded a Muslim candidate from NDA quota. Left front has a decent presence with 6% vote share in 2010. 4/11 candidates are Muslim candidates. RJD was leading comfortably from this seat in LS polls.

Bakhri (SC)

BJP defeated LJP handsomely by 18k voyes in 2010. BJP retained candidate. RJD has also fielded a Paswan. 6 / 9 Paswan candidates, CPI got 18% vote share last time in 2010. BJP was leading from this seat in LS polls. Triangular contest.

Alauli (SC)

Seat won by JDU in 2010 by 18k votes has gone to RJD quota. No rebel. LJP was runner up last time and fielded Ram Vilas Paswan relative who was runner up last time. JDU was leading in LS polls in this seat.

Bihpur (General)

Seat won by BJP in 2010 by less than 500 votes. Candidate retained. RJD which was runner up has changed candidate as its last time candidate has become MP.  RJD was leading comfortably against BJP in LS polls from this segment. Constituency has sizeable Muslim population (>16.5%).

Pirpainti (SC)

6/11 Paswan candidates. Seat won by BJP in 2010 by 6k votes. Candidate changed, no rebel. RJD which was runner up has retained candidate. RJD was leading against BJP in LS polls from this segment. CPI has given ticket to independent candidate who polled 3% votes last time. All 4 major alliances have put up Paswan candidates. Constituency has sizeable Muslim population (>16.5%).

Banka (General)

RJD won the seat last time in a tough fight against BJP by 2k votes. BJP has retained the candidate while RJD has given ticket to SP candidate from last time who bagged less than 1% votes. 2/11 Muslim candidates. BJP was leading against RJD in LS polls from this segment.

Katoria (ST)

RJD was comfortably leading in this seat. 3/9, 2/9, 2/9 Hembaram, Soren and Handsa candidates. Both BJP and RJD, 2010 winner and runner up have changed candidates this time. No rebel candidate. Last time BJP defeated RJD by 9k votes.

Munger (General)

Seat won by JDU in 2010 by 18k votes has gone to RJD quota. BJP fighting from NDA quota. No rebel candidate from JDU. JMM was 3rd last time with 9% vote share. Its candidate fighting as an independent this time. LJP was leading comfortably from the seat in LS polls.

Surajgarha (General)

Fight is between the last time winner (BJP) and runner up (RJD) with the same candidates in fray. BJP won marginally this seat last time by 3k votes.

Rajauli (SC)

Seat won by BJP last time in 2010 by 14k votes, but changed candidate. No rebel. RJD was second and has retained the candidate. Third Front has a friendly fight here both NCP and SP fighting from the seat. 3/12 Paswan and 2/12 Rajvanshi candidates. RJD was leading marginally in this segment in LS polls. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>17%).

Nawada (General)

Last time winner from JDU Purnima Yadav has left JDU after seat was given to RJD. Congress has given her the ticket from Govindpur. RJD has fielded last time runner up (Rajballabh Prasad) as its candidate. RLSP has got the ticket from NDA quota. BJP was leading comfortably from this seat in LS polls in May 2014. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>17%).

Jamui (General)

Last time winner from JDU Ajay Prakash has left JDU after seat was given to RJD. BJP has given him the ticket. RJD has fielded last time runner up (Vijay Prakash) as its candidate. LJP was leading comfortably from this seat in LS polls in May 2014. JDU defeated RJD by 24k votes in 2010. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>11%).

Chakai (General)

JMM candidate has won this seat in 2010 by mere 188 votes in a four cornered contest defeating his nearest LJP rival. JMM has given seat this time to last time NCP candidate. 2010 winner Sumit Kr. Singh is contesting as an independent (father Narendra Singh in BJP, was earlier in JDU). LJP has given seat to the same person who finished 2nd last time. LJP was leading comfortably from this seat in LS polls in May 2014. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>11%).

Rosera (SC)

BJP defeated RJD by 12k votes in 2010. 3 Paswan candidates, RJD seat gone to Congress but no rebel. LJP was leading in this seat in 2010 LS polls.

Bachchwara (General)

CPI candidate defeated independent by 12k votes. LJP has given ticket to same independent candidate. 3 Singh, 2 Paswan & Yadav candidates. Triangular contest.

Begusarai (General)

BJP defeated LJP candidate by 20k votes in 2010. BJP has retained candidate. Ticket has gone to Congress from Janata quota. CPM has strong presence with 15% votes last time.

Kahalgaon(General)

Seat won by Sadanand Singh (8 time MLA from Congress) in 2010 by 9k votes. RJD was leading marginally (1%) in Lok Sabha polls from this seat. LJP has got the seat from NDA quota. RJD candidate from 2010 has turned rebel and contesting from SP ticket. Sadanand Singh is facing heat this time. Left Front has a friendly fight here (both CPI and CPM have fielded candidates). Plus BJP has a rebel candidate Pawan Kr. Yadav. Constituency has sizeable Muslim population (>16.5%).

Bhagalpur (General)

Seat won by BJP in 2010 by 11k votes. Had to change candidate as sitting MLA (Ashwini Choubey) became MP. Has got seat for his son. Congress was 2nd last time and has given ticket to the same candidate. BJP was leading in this seat in Lok Sabha polls. BJP has a rebel candidate Vijay Prakash Shah contesting as an independent. Constituency has sizeable Muslim population (>16.5%).

Barbigha (General)

Seat won by JDU in 2010 by 3k votes has gone to Congress quota. However, sitting MLA has not rebelled. Congress was 2nd last time however it has given ticket to last time LJP candidate who finished 3rd. RLSP has given ticket to an independent who fought last time and got 5% votes. BJP was leading in this seat in Lok Sabha polls. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>17%).

Govinpur (General)

Seat won by JDU in 2010 by 21k votes has gone to Congress quota. JDU MLA Kaushal Yadav lost the Parliament election from Nawada in May 2014. LJP was second last time, however seat has gone to BJP. No rebels. BJP was leading in this seat in Lok Sabha polls. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>17%).

Sikandra (SC)

Seat won by JDU in 2010 by 12k votes has gone to Congress quota. However, sitting MLA has not rebelled. CPI has strong presence with 8.6% votes in 2010 elections. LJP which was 2nd in 2010 has given seat to same candidate from NDA quota. LJP was leading in this seat in Lok Sabha elections. Constituency has sizeable Mahadalit population (>11%).

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