50 seats go to polls on Wed. 28th Oct. This is very crucial for both NDA and Janata alliance (Gathbandhan) to score well. For overview / details on Phase 3 (seats won, population, LS leads, prominent candidates) please refer to earlier blog:
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/24/overview-of-phase3-of-biharelections/
The seat wise analysis is presented below including dynamics on each seat.
Agiaon (SC)
BJP defeated RJD by 5k votes in 2010. BJP has retained the candidate. Seat has gone to JDU from Janata quota. No rebels. CPI-ML has a strong presence with 24% vote share in 2010. Keen contest between two mahadalits. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Sandesh (General)
BJP defeated Independent candidate by 7k votes in 2010. BJP has retained the candidate (Rajput). Seat has gone to RJD from Janata quota which has given ticket to the independent (a Yadav) who finished 2nd last time. No rebels. CPI-ML has a strong presence with 13% vote share in 2010. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Barhara (General)
RJD defeated JDU candidate in 2010 by mere 1k votes. RJD has changed candidate and fielded a Yadav. Last time winner turned rebel and contesting from Mulayam’s party (Rajput). Seat has been allocated to BJP from NDA quota. BJP has given ticket to last time JDU runner up. So Janata alliance has 2 rebels. Keen contest between two ladies. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Arrah (General)
BJP defeated LJP candidate by a big margin of 20k votes in 2010. BJP has retained the candidate (Rajput). Seat has gone to RJD from Janata quota which has given ticket to a Muslim. No rebels. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Jagdishpur (General)
RJD defeated JDU candidate in 2010 by 10k votes. RJD has changed candidate and fielded an upper caste. Last time winner turned rebel and contesting as an independent (Rajput). Seat has been allocated to RLSP from NDA quota which has fielded a Koeri. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Shahpur (General)
BJP defeated RJD candidate by 8k votes in 2010. BJP has changed candidate and fielded a Brahmin. RJD has given ticket to Shivanand Tiwary’s son. BSP has strong presence with 10% vote share. No rebels from BJP / RJD. Last time BSP candidate shifted to Pappu Yadav’s party. BSP has fielded a Brahmin. Triangular contest between 3 Brahmins. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Tarari (General)
JDU bahubali & currently jailed candidate defeated RJD by 14k votes. LJP has given ticket to jailed bahubali’s wife. Congress has fielded state spokesperson and former union minister. SP has fielded Ranvir Sena’s founder son. CPI-ML has strong presence with 24% vote share. No rebels. Quadrangular contest between 4 bhumihars. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Dumraon (General)
JDU defeated RJD by big margin of 20k votes in 2010. JDU has changed candidate. Last time Muslim winner is contesting on JAP ticket. JDU has given ticket to bahubali Dadan Yadav who joined from BSP. CPI-ML and BSP have decent presence with 55 vote share. RLSP has got ticket from NDA quota and has fielded an upper caste. NDA was leading from this seat in LS polls.
Rajpur (SC)
JDU defeated LJP candidate by big margin of 15k votes in 2010. JDU has retained candidate. BJP has fielded a Mahadalit. Last time LJP runner up has rebelled and is contesting on SP ticket. Triangular contest between 3 Dalits / Mahadalits. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Barhampur (General)
BJP defeated RJD candidate by 20k votes in 2010. BJP has changed candidate and fielded an upper caste (CP Thakur’s son). It has denied ticket to last time winner and daughter-in-law of Kailashpati Mishra. No rebels but dissidence within BJP. RJD has also changed candidate and fielded a Yadav. Last time RJD candidate rebelled and contesting on BSP ticket. BSP has decent presence with 8% vote share. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Buxar (General)
BJP defeated RJD candidate by 20k votes in 2010. BJP has changed candidate. Both Congress and BJP fielded a Brahmin. A whopping 29 candidates contesting. 11/29 Brahmins. BSP has decent presence with 10% vote share and CPM 7% vote share. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Asthawan (General)
JDU defeated LJP candidate by big margin of 20k votes in 2010. JDU has retained Kurmi candidate. LJP has changed candidate and put up a Yadav candidate. No rebels. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Biharsharif (General)
JDU defeated RJD candidate by big margin of 24k votes in 2010. JDU winner (Koeri) has switched sides and is contesting on BJP ticket. JDU has fielded a Muslim candidate. 2010 runner up has rebelled and is contesting on JAP ticket. So 2 rebels for Janata alliance. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Rajgir (SC)
BJP defeated LJP by whopping 27k votes in 2010. BJP has retained candidate. No rebel. JDU has given ticket to a policeman known for gandhigiri (Munna Bhai style). CPI has decent vote share of 5%. Contest between dalits. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Islampur (General)
JDU candidate defeated RJD by 24k votes in 2010. JDU MLA left party and joined BJP but was not given ticket. Instead BJP has given ticket to RJD runner up of last time (Yadav). JDU has fielded a Kurmi candidate. Both CPI and BSP have decent presence in seat. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Nalanda (General)
JDU candidate defeated RJD by 21k votes in 2010. JDU has retained MLA (Kurmi). BJP has fielded a Yadav. No rebels. Direct fight. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Harnaut (General)
JDU candidate defeated LJP by 15k votes in 2010. JDU has retained MLA (upper caste). LJP has also retained its candidate from NDA quota (MBC). Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Hilsa (General)
JDU candidate defeated LJP by 13k votes in 2010. JDU has changed MLA and fielded a Yadav. No rebel. LJP has also changed candidate from NDA quota (Kurmi, no rebel). Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Mokama (General)
JDU defeated LJP candidate by 9k votes in 2010. JDU sitting MLA Anant Singh, a bahubali, has been jailed and has been denied ticket. JDU has given ticket to an upper caste. LJP has fielded a Rajput and also changed candidate. No rebel from LJP side. Anant Singh is contesting as an independent. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Barh (General)
JDU defeated RJD candidate by 19k votes in 2010. JDU sitting MLA has switched sides and is contesting from NDA. JDU has given ticket to a Nitish confidante (upper caste). Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Digha (General)
JDU defeated LJP candidate by 60k votes in 2010. JDU has changed candidate and given ticket to Rajiv Ranjan (Kayashta / spokesperson). BJP has fielded a PBC. No rebels. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Phulwari (SC)
JDU defeated RJD candidate by 21k votes in 2010. JDU has retained candidate. Last time RJD runner up has rebelled and is contesting on SP ticket. HAM has also given ticket to a Mahadalit from NDA quota. CPI-ML has decent presence with 6% vote share. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Bakhtiarpur (General)
RJD defeated BJP candidate by 15k votes. RJD has retained candidate while BJP has changed candidate. BSP has decent presence with 7% vote share. Fight between Yadavs. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Patna Sahib (General)
BJP defeated nearest Congress candidate by 65k votes. BJP has retained candidate, Nand Kishore Yadav, who is LoP in Bihar assembly. RJD has fielded a Kushwaha. No rebels. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Fatuha (general)
RJD defeated JDU candidate by 10k votes in 2010. RJD has retained the Yadav candidate. LJP has also fielded a Yadav candidate. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Danapur (General)
BJP defeated an independent candidate in 2010 by 18k votes. BJP has retained the lady Kayashta candidate while RJD has changed candidate and fielded a Yadav. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Maner
RJD defeated JDU candidate by 10k votes. RJD has retained the Yadav candidate. Last time JDU runner up is contesting from BJP ticket. Their rivalry is for past 25 years. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Masaurhi (SC)
JDU defeated LJP candidate by 5k votes in 2010. RJD has got the seat and fielded a Mahadalit. HAM has got the seat from NDA quota and fielded a Mahadalit as well. Fight between two ladies. CPI-ML has strong presence with 10% vote share. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Paliganj
BJP defeated RJD candidate by 10k votes in 2010. BJP has changed MLA and given ticket to former MLA from Bikram (upper caste). RJD has retained Yadav candidate. CPI-ML has strong presence with 15% vote share. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Bankipur
BJP defeated RJD candidate by 61k votes in 2010. BJP has retained Kayashtha MLA. Congress has got seat from Janata quota and also fielded an upper caste. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Kumhrar
BJP defeated LJP candidate by 68k votes in 2010. BJP has retained Kayashtha MLA while Congress has got seat from Janata quota and fielded a Muslim candidate. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Bikram
BJP defeated LJP candidate in 2010 by 2k votes. BJP has retained Yadav candidate while Congress has also fielded a Yadav candidate. LJP candidate has turned rebel and contesting on Congress ticket. BSP has decent presence with 9% votes. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Ekma
JDU defeated RJD candidate by 29k votes in 2010. JDU has retained the Rajput candidate. Last time RJD runner up (Rajput) has revolted and is BJP candidate. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Amnour
JDU defeated independent candidate by 11k votes in 2010. JDU has retained the Rajput candidate. BJP has given ticket to a Brahmin candidate who was 3rd last time. Last time runner up contesting as an independent. Triangular contest. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Baniapur
RJD defeated JDU candidate by 4k votes in 2010. RJD has retained upper caste candidate who is bahubali Prabhunath Singh’s brother. BJP has also fielded an upper caste. Last time JDU runner up has rebelled and is contesting as an independent. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Taraiya
BJP defeated INC candidate by 7k votes in 2010. BJP has retained the upper caste candidate. RJD has got seat from Janata quota and has fielded the independent Yadav who was 3rd last time. No rebels. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Marhaura
RJD defeated JDU candidate by 6k votes in 2010. RJD has retained Yadav candidate. Last time JDU runner up has rebelled and is contesting on BJP ticket. BSP has strong presence with 14% vote share. However, they have changed the last time Muslim candidate who is contesting as an independent. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Chapra
BJP defeated RJD candidate by 36k votes in 2010. BJP MLA has become MP and bye-poll was held in 2014 in which RJD candidate and bahubali Prabhunath Singh’s son won defeating the nearest independent candidate (BJP rebel). RJD has retained candidate while BJP has given ticket to the last time rebel, a Bania. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Garkha
BJP defeated RJD candidate in a close contest by 2k votes in 2010. BJP has retained the mahadalit candidate. RJD has also retained candidate. Last time Congress candidate who was 3rd has turned rebel and is contesting as an independent. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Parsa
JDU defeated RJD candidate by 5k votes in 2010. Seat has gone to RJD from Janata quota. RJD has retained the runner up Yadav candidate. JDU winner has revolted and is LJP candidate from the seat. Contest between 2 Yadavs. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Sonepur
BJP defeated RJD candidate by 21k votes in 2010. Lalu’s wife Rabri was the runner up last time. RJD has changed candidate. Contest between 2 upper castes. BJP has retained candidate. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Manjhi
JDU defeated RJD candidate by 8k votes in 2010. JDU MLA rebelled and is contesting from SP ticket. Seat has gone to RJD from Janata quota. RJD has changed candidate. Last time runner up from RJD has also rebelled and is contesting as an independent. LJP has fielded an upper caste. Contest between 2 upper castes. 2 independents last time got decent vote share of 7% each, contesting again. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Lalganj (General)
JDU defeated independent candidate by 24k votes in 2010. JDU has given ticket to bahubali Munna Shukla. Last time her wife was winner. LJP has given ticket to the independent who was runner up last time. No rebels. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Vaishali (General)
JDU defeated RJD candidate by 13k votes. JDU MLA (Kurmi) is now part of Manjhi’s HAM and is contesting on NDA quota. JDU has fielded a Rajpit candidate. No rebels. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Mahnar
BJP defeated LJP candidate by 2k votes in 2010. BJP has retained candidate (upper caste). JDU has fielded the independent (Koeri) who was 4th last time. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Mahua
JDU defeated RJD candidate by 22k votes in 2010. Seat has gone to RJD quota which has fielded Lalu’s elder son. Last time JDU MLA is HAM’s candidate from NDA. Last time RJD runner up has turned rebel and is contesting on JAP ticket. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Raja Pakar (SC)
JDU defeated LJP candidate by 10k votes in 2010. Seat has gone to RJD quota which has fielded a dalit. Last time LJP candidate has turned rebel and is contesting as an independent. LJP has fielded a Dusadh. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Raghopur
JDU defeated RJD candidate (Lalu’s wife Rabri) by 13k votes in 2010. Seat has gone to RJD quota which has fielded Lalu’s younger son and seen by many as his political heir. Last time JDU MLA has rebelled and is contesting from BJP ticket. Fight between two Yadavs. Janata alliance was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Patepur (SC)
BJP defeated RJD candidate by 17k votes in 2010. The same two candidates are slugging it out again this time from reserved seat. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
Hajipur
BJP defeated LJP candidate by 17k votes in 2010. BJP MLA has become MP. In bye-election BJP won again. BJP has retained the Rajput candidate. Congress has fielded a Yadav. NDA was leading from this segment in LS polls.
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