Phase 4 of Bihar Elections Post Poll Update – NDA Ahead


5 Key Messages:

1. Elections continue to be damn close (105-114 for NDA and 70-79 for Janata alliance) till now with 57 seats remaining for polls in Phase 5.

2. NDA has swept Phase 4 (43-47 seats).

3. NDA has taken a big lead after Phase 4 (26-44 seats).

4. Janata alliance is very strong in Phase 5 and capable of negating this lead (can win 49 / 57 seats).

5. This cracker of a test match goes into Day 5 with both alliances in with an equal chance to win.

Phase 4 Analysis

Phase 4 of the blockbuster Bihar elections concluded yesterday. This is a strong NDA bastion and it was leading in 38 out of 55 seats in LS polls held in May 2014 even after aggregating Nitish, Lalu and Congress votes (though they fought separately). Though Janata alliance (Maha Gathbandhan) lead in 17 seats, in half of these seats (9) their margin was in the range of 0%-5% (susceptible to poaching).

Entry of Manjhi into NDA fold has meant an additional 3%-4.5% vote share across seats enough to negate this marginal vote share advantage of Janata alliance. Yadavs likely to have consolidated towards Janata alliance across phases based on feedback from the ground and NDA could have lost the 19% Yadav votes it got in 2014 translating to a loss of 3% vote share. Still an advantage to NDA of 0%-1.5%. Additionally, votes are being lost in translation, all JDU votes not going to RJD / Congress and vice-a-versa.

Phase 4 Predictions

Based on ground feedback (low compared to other phases) and research, NDA has had a bumper performance in this phase and is expected to win 43-47 seats. Janata alliance has to be content with 8-12 seats only. The district wise expected performance is as below.

District Total NDA Janata Alliance
Gopalganj 6 6 0
Muzaffarpur 11 8 to 10 1 to 3
Pashchim Champaran 9 6 to 7 2 to 3
Purbi Champaran 12 9 to 10 2 to 3
Sheohar 1 1 0
Sitamarhi 8 7 1
Siwan 8 6 2
Total 55 43 to 47 8 to 12

Phase 1-4 Combined Position

Based on the aggregate of Phase 1 to 4, NDA is expected to have taken a big lead over Janata alliance as predicted in my last post after Phase 3 polls.

Best Case (very low probability)

As per best case scenario, NDA is expected to have already won the elections. I still maintain that these elections are very close and possibility of this happening is very low. Then why is this presented, only for illustrative / academic purposes and continuity for the readers.

Base Case (Scenario 1)

As per base case (median of the ranges forecast), NDA is expected to have won 114, Janata alliance 70 and Others 2. NDA has taken a decisive lead of 44 seats in this phase according to this estimate.

Worst Case (Scenario 2)

As per worst case (lowest end of the ranges forecast), NDA is expected to have won 105, Janata alliance 79 and Others 2. In this case the lead is of 26 seats.

Both scenario 1 & 2 have equal probability of happening. While in scenario 1 (base case) NDA has an upper hand, in scenario 2 (worst case) Janata alliance has an upper hand.

    Phase 1-4
Party / Alliance Ph. 1-3 Phase 4 Base Case Worst Case* Best Case*
NDA 62-76 43 to 47 114 105 123
Janata Alliance 53-67 8 to 12 70 79 61
Others 2 0 2 2 2
Total 131 55 186 186 186

*from NDA view point

How is this similar to a thrilling test match?

These 5 phases are like 5 days of a test match. In a test match pendulum swings from one team to another during the five days (one team has upper hand on some days while other team has upper hand on other days). The fortunes have swing in favour of both alliances during these various phases. Related post on How Bihar Elections is like a Cricket Match?

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/21/the-bihar-cricket-match-2/

Phase 1 / Day 1: Janata alliance had a clear upper hand

Phase 2 / Day 2: NDA had a marginal upper hand

Phase 3 / Day 3: NDA had a very good upper hand

Phase 4 / Day 4: NDA had a clear upper hand

Phase 5 / Day 5: ?

NDA (26-44 seats) has taken a lead and it is now upto Janata alliance (Gathbandhan) to chase down this lead and win the match. Chasing down on the last day with a deteriorating pitch is always difficult in however good form your batsmen are. So there will be intense pressure on Janata alliance to perform and sweep Phase 5. That too when stakes are high. Its been a long campaign, volunteers / karyakartas have become tired and Janata alliance needs to keep the motivation levels high. In a way NDA will not be even contesting all the 57 seats, rather focus on 25-30 seats only.

What could happen in Phase V? Is this lead sufficient to enable NDA to win?

Phase V consists of 57 seats. This consists of areas where Muslim community has a lot of dominance. In Lok Sabha polls JDU and RJD/Congress/NCP alliance fighting separately was leading in 39 of these 57 seats and NDA in 18 seats. If you add all their votes together, 10 seats swing from BJP to Janata alliance. Effectively Janata alliance can win 49 / 57 seats in a polarized voting atmosphere. Do note that 85% of Muslims voted for Nitish and Lalu’s parties in 2014 LS polls.

In case of scenario 1 where NDA already has 114 seats, it can easily romp home by winning 8 seats it was leading in LS polls making its total tally 122 (simple majority). Janata will finish at 116 and Others at 5. I give 1 seat each to AIMIM, Pappu Yadav and NCP in Phase 5.

In case of scenario 2 where NDA has 105 seats, it becomes tricky for it to win the elections considering the data above showing the strength of Janata alliance in Phase V. In this case winning 17 seats will not be easy.

To match abhi baaki hai doston….

So after all this confusion who is winning? Stay tuned for a detailed blog on Phase V (pre-poll) and who will I put my money on. Thanks to all followers for their encouragement and support and apologies for delay.

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117 thoughts on “Phase 4 of Bihar Elections Post Poll Update – NDA Ahead

  1. I just hope that your predictions are right. Though I would like NDA to win, the general impression is that RJD-JDU-Congress are winning by a huge margin. Apart from a few BJP supported forums like this, Niticentral, Swarajya all other forums have virtually written off NDA. Its sad to see that Satta Bazar have also gone to the Grand alliance side. I afraid that I experienced a similar thing during Delhi elections. As I mentioned, I just hope your predictions come right and the others have made major errors.

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    1. You are correct but general impression of winning RJD+JDU was after first phase.It diminished a bit after 2nd round but after 3rd and 4th round everyone got silent.Satta bazar is still with NDA you can check yesterday jagran print.You can clearly see stress on face of nitish and laluji and happy faces of PM and shah.It all shows NDA has taken a big leap however assumption will change into confirmation on 8th Nov onlt.

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  2. I think you should take more time and give a clear picture with more inputs.Also related to phase 5 as I already said in one of my previous comment its going a win win for NDA.MGB votes is definately going to split and a bigger spoiler will be pappu yadav and owaisi.I have seen few owisi rally and people came in huge number.Seemanchal region mostly vote for candidates and as per my knowledge MGB placed a considerably weak candidate compared to NDA and Owaisi like akhtarul Imam strong muslim leader fielded by Owisi party.And last not least there is news of strong hindu vote polarisation(in favour of whom we all know) and boundry of caste been erased this time in those region.

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    1. Owaisi, I think is only contesting on 6 seats in phase V. Don’t know how much that helps. Pappu Yadav is also not strong in Seemanchal. What is Political Baaba’s prediction on NDA for phase V?

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    2. Thanks Aniket. Problem with feedback on the ground is it also comes with bias which is difficult to distinguish. Plus I have told this earlier as we’ll nobody has a clue (on a lighter note). It will go the final vote count. Close elections also means result could be 140-100 bit margins in each seat less than 3000. Detailed post on Phase 5 soon. Thanks

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  3. Hi Aniket. I agree with you that the reality and the general impression in the media may be different due to the nature of the Bihar Polls and also there may be a mix of bias. I find it difficult to believe the news that there is a complete smooth transfer of votes between RJD and JDU. Regarding Satta Bazar, again there is a conflict between different sources. ET says that Satta Bazaar favours Grand Alliance while Jagran says it is a close fight. I was watching NDTV’s Battleground yesterday. It was quite balanced. At-least the panelists did not completely written off NDA and brought out certain positives like Young prefering NDA, SCs prefering NDA etc.

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  4. I think in 5th phase NDA HAS fair chance because Muslims are strong on 24 to 26 seats with 70% population in the region of seemanchal and rest of the area having 30 seats have every cast and community in equal proportion like rajputs , bhumihars, upper casts , dalits and MBC who can consolidate and counter polorize in favour of NDA so I see 18 to 20 seats for NDA as a minimum case so if I add this to political baaba prediction of 105 seats in worst case scenario then it will be 123- 125 seats for NDA which is good enough to displace mahaswarthbandhan.

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  5. I just watched the Modi’s rally. The crowd was huge. Does not look like it’s a lost cause for NDA as the general media predict it to be.

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  6. One thing for sure is that neither MGB or NDA know where this is headed. A close neck and neck fight with a slight advantage for NDA just because of the Modi connect with people. If Nitish kumar was not in the fray BJP wud have won with more than 2/3 ds majority. UP will be one more interesting Battle between BJP, SP and a badly injured Mayawati. Wont be surprised to see if Congis try aligning with Mayawati as both wud need each other. Whatever be the result in Bihar I want to see Congis loose all their seats. They are trying to destroy India to regain Power

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      1. bjp tie up with bsp ? what ur saying ? 2017 will be bjp biggest chance coming back to power after 2002 in up- u may want to say bsp cong tie up . and bro trust amit shah – he knows up much more than mulayam – first let him win bihar- then u will see smooth sailing – he will break bsp back whatever they have what ever they have. and don’t take p.poll seriously- bjp never fight p.poll in up , first time they supported candidates not directly fight- therefore many ind candidates won, up in bjp grap- no worries congress may end up less than 5 seats if they don’t ally with bsp- aimm will play huge factor- up will be completely polarised election – so bjp winning almost certain.

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  7. coming here after long time after loksabha election how are u political baba?- my assessment – ph1 – nda 21-22 mba- 25-26 others ( u may see surprise result in banka and bhagalpur many predict bad result here but i see 5-6 out of 12 ) ph2- u may see full manjhi factor- amit shah done lots of calculation by giving 2 seats to majhi to polarised all dalit/maha-dalit votes) and u will see the result so as per my side manji will from both seats – nda may end up 22 out of 32 rest 10 to mba- 3rd and 4th phrase out if 105- my prediction 3rd phrase 35-37 and 4th phrase 41-43 – 2 ind will win baby kumari and anant singh out of 105 – so u can add this 2 too in to nda kitty , last not the least 5th phrase- amit shah done lots of calculation fr this phrase – top 3 1) puting 15 candidate fr each conts – confuse muslims 2) giving pappu all resources and putting pawar in pressure so traiq fight hard – u forget 2 mp frm here tariq pappu both rebel- so it is very important add in to calculation and last not least muslim reservation is big here ( remember ramur up 40*% muslim population)also owasi working fr hard there may snatch kishanganj seat frm congress. so all in to calculation – bjp frm seemachal – 6 koshi-3 mithila- 11 – 20 – pappu 2 ncp 1 and aimm-1 rest mgb- 33. so my final prediction – nda 1st phrase-22 mgb-25 others 2 (left 1)
    2nd phrase-22 mgb -10
    3rd phrase- 36 mgb-13 one ananat singh
    4th phrase- 42 mgb-12 one baby kumari
    5th phrase- 20 mgb-33 others 4 (aimm papu and tariq) so final- 136-142 nda 83-85 others 7-8 – waiting fr ur comment !

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      1. i was bit busy these days. this bihar election remind of 2014 general election, so much rumor mongering so much confusion , but today modi comment in dharbanga rally remind me of last modi rally comment in gajipur 9 th may-same full of confidence sarcastic comment lovely smiling face- is it the sign of ?

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  8. btw bro don’t under-estimate pappu yadav on 5th phrase – he is secret agent of amit bhai- working very hard in kosi and seemanchal even hire on look like osama bin laden lol (amit bhai guiding him very well)

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      1. also ncp leaving maha secular alliance and fighting alone another amit bhai short plan to confuse muslim voters and divide secular voters more -more candidate more confusion we missd this small point but very important- all in to amit bhai context. ncp.

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  9. lalu and nitish can’t compete with amit bhai on election plans- u see how amit bhai confuse nitish and p.kishore- amit took all the local media help- no 1 channel in bihar- is e-tv and etv backing bjp from day 1 – and u know todayschanykya do exit poll fr etv – so hint there and opp side nitish-kishore playing with luteyn media – there presence in bihar big o- even big local news paper daink jagaran dainik bhaskar all saying bjp will win- local media matter states likes bihar up bengal etc , nitish missd that point but he gone fr lutyen media- amit bhai beat p.kishore on that aspect.

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  10. Joy I just hope that Amit Shah gets this one right. To a large extent the future of India depends on this election. Congress has to become the untouchables in Indian politics because otherwise they will keep stalling rajyasabha and creating chaos through these manufactured intolerance fights. Let’s hope that Modi and Shah not just win Bihar but take the development agenda to the dining tables of all Indians. For India to grow rapidly development has to be the core of every political party aspiring to rule it

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  11. fr modi and shah it’s now or never- see fr this 57 cnts modi done 6 rallies – that mean how much he given importance last phrase and fr shah it show do or die- if he won bihar- whole east india will be open up – assam in grab bengal will be fight fr main opp- odisha bjp now giving bjd tough fight – dharmendra pradhan will be dark horse fr odisha in 2019- jharkhand is right wing state- so as per political implication is huge- bihar win almost break cong spine – punjab /haryana cong may split , economic front many reform will happen like gst, real estate bill etc and this fake outrage and award wapsi- all will be shattered , that’s why modi/shah gave it all fr bihar- coz in politics win election is biggest slap on ur critics face.
    btw have u seen forbesganj rally- my god so much ppl it’s like ocean of ppl- just before 2 days poll- what is indicate ?

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    1. Glad to read u Joy have u been to Bihar or just saw Modiji rally on TV I too want Bihar to be free from these people like laloo nitish Cong I want to see Cong mukt bharat and bjp yukt bharat so ur findings are like pleasant for heart but I want to know Joy what is made u so confident about ur reading regarding results do u have ground report or again have u personally been to Bihar to gather these reports thax pls reply

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      1. if nitish will loose this election – it will be fr congress- giving cong 41 seats- is suicidal – no one in bihar will vote fr hath chap- bihar hate cong since 1990- one of the anti-cong state- cong may not even cross 6 as per lalu- his two sons are like rahul- worst dynasty – chirag look far better than lalu sons- lalu facing tough fight- young yadav not happy with him – 30-35 will be lalu score – so it’s all depend to jdu how much they will score on 101 seats also 1 interesting fact jdu goodwill women voters not going to lalu- becoz women were the worst effect of lalu rule.

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      2. ONE EXAMPLE ONE OF THE SAFEST SEAT FR CONGRESS IN KISHANGANJ AREA IS TARGETED BY OWAISI- HE SAYING CONGRESS BUDDHA HO GAYA – BJP KO KOI ROK SAKTA WO HAI ONLY OWAISI, THIS SEAT CONG NEVER LOST .

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      3. ALL THIS FAKE OUTRAGE AWARD WAPSI AND INTOLERANCE WILL BE COMPLETELY VANISHED AFTER BJP BIHAR ELECTION WIN – SAME HAPPEN WHEN VASU WILL LOCAL RAJASTHAN POLLS THAT FINISHED LALIT MODI EPISODE SAME SHIV WIN LOCAL POLLS IN MP – VYAPAM VANISHED FRM MEDIA- IN INDIAN POLITICS IT’S ALL ABT WINNING ELECTION TO FINISHED ANY SCANDAL OR MANUFACTURED OUTRAGE.

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  12. BJP+ is doing quite well in Mithila That is Darbhanga and Madhunbai They are likely to win 12 out of 20 seats in these two districts. Nitish Mishra and Manjhi factor are helping them there. EBCs are also titlting towards BJP
    In Kosi which is Madhepura, Saharsa and Supaul BJP would win at least 4 seats out of 13. Pappu Yadav is spiltting the votes here helping BJP
    Seemanchal out of 24 seats NDA woud win 4-5 seats helped by Hindu consolidation and Modi rallies. In Katihar NCP would do some damage to MGB.
    Taslimudeen RJD MP is not happy with MGB. That would dent propspects of MGB
    Overall 20 seats is very reasonable assumption with potential of some upside.

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      1. ALL WILL BE DEPEND ON SEEMANCHAL- IF NDA GET 5 OUT 24 THEY WILL HIT 20 MARK- AND THAT WILL BE GAME OVER LALU/NITISH- WANT TO SEE HOW BENGALI SPEAKING MUSLIM VOTE- THEY VOTED BJP 2010 IN THIS REGION !

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  13. I think both sides are trying to build up their defenses in case they fall short of the mark – with Nitish Kumar saying irrespective of results a new front taking place and BJP insisting that Amit Shah will get fresh term a President irrespective of Bihar elections. Both sides seem not completely confident. Indeed this is going to be a nail biter. I think we will have to wait well beyond the standard 11:00 am on 8th November, as the seats may keep changing between NDA & UPA.

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  14. Dear Joy, This fake March for intolerance will not vanish after the Bihar results. Congress is seeing the writing on the wall. They want to create a civil war in India as only that can now bring them back into political limelight. They have to find new reasons to stop parliament from functioning and create a sense of turmoil. This is the worst party and is hell bent on destroying India for their narrow political gains. They have to be defeated every where and other parties should get scared of aligning with them. Only then will all this fake drama of intolerance end

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    1. meetesh if u want to fight with govt- u need to do well in the election , then media will help u- without media cong do nothing- suppose mba lost the election cong finished with 5 seats- just imagine what will happen – first in punjab amarinder singh will rebel then haryana hoda against pappu- cong will have internal prb- then national herald and vadra case add with- next year- 4 state – assam cong will loose badly- tamilnadu/bengal cong fringe player , only state cong can win kerala- but bjp trying hard there, it will be impossible fr bjp to finish cong eco-system in 5 years which they created through 60 years- only way bjp can break cong spine- beat them state after state, loosing one state to bjp- will create internal fight fr cong- that is bjp best option right now. just think !

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      1. bihar election will decide winter session will run or not, if nda win bihar- cong can’t do anything- no opp will support them, becoz they are looser party- just lost a big election- so all future course will be depend on bihar result- 8 nov will be as bigger as day like 16 may as per me !

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      2. Dear Joy, I totally understand it. I guess that’s the reason that bjp has put its entire might into the elections of Bihar. Even congress understands it and that’s why they accepted a humiliating 40 seats and got nitish and lalu together. Congress is now fighting for survival and as u rightly put the defeat in Bihar will bring out an internal rebellion which will make Congress take a far more softer approach towards BJP. I hope people of Bihar understand that they are deciding the fate of Indias progress and not just their own state.

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    2. Congress is not only a party but an ideology / philosophy. It is deep rooted in our political culture. Congress mukt Bharat is difficult but a weakened congress possible. If BJP loses Bihar they will be emboldened.

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      1. Very true . The congress ideology is under tremendous threat and that’s the reason why their stooges are cropping up every where. The last time Vajpayee was the PM this did not happen simply because their ideology was not under threat and they knew they can make a comeback soon. Now they are worried about their very existence specially if they loose even the next LS elections badly. One big reason why they want India to suffer for the next three years. If growth happens as per Modis plan Congress will be relegated to the pages of History

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  15. that’s why bihar is so important- congress mukth may not possible- but modi-shah can split congress in many states – also sonia almost touching 70 her health not so good- so after her cong will be in very bad phrase and bro i don’t agree with cong have an ideology-this cong have no ideology – – only two party in india is ideological party one bjp and other cpim- others have 0 ideology- all do opportunistic poltics- becoz cong gave us independence- that’s why they are very much attach to philosophy of india-

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  16. Just want to understand. Will the cow ads in today’s newspapers in Bihar have a big impact on BJP, help them to consolidate Hindu votes?

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  17. And a second query that I have – What would have been better for BJP – elections in one go or over five phases? I feel both would have its own advantage and disadvantage? Election over five phases has helped them to tweak their strategy in every phase according to the demography and also correct mistakes. And election in one go would have helped them to avoid the continuous negative onslaught from media. What are your views?

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      1. Sir, my query is what would have been better for BJP (election in phases or one go), irrespective of whether it is possible or not?

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    1. Nand Kishore Yadav was a cabinet minister of road construction and tourism in the Government of Bihar, prior to the split of JDU from NDA. And roads of Bihar have saw a drastic improvement during his tenure.

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  18. Joy, will the latest cow ads help consolidate Hindu votes or would people perceive them as desperate attempt to garner votes? I am asking as I don’t know as to how people in that region would react or psychology of people in that region of Bihar? What are your views, if you could share.

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  19. yei phrase fully polarised hai- shah ne iss phrase ko dhayan rakhke bola tha if u loose pak will celebrate – yei add mithila ke yadav ko lubhane ke liye diya gaya- effect to hoga hi- yadav go-raksha karte hai- let c

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  20. Won’t such stupid statements of Yogi Adityanath won’t affect BJP’s prospects? These guys are actually BJP’s enemies. Why can’t Modi put them on notice & order them to shut their fuck up. (This is frustrating. Sorry for language used)

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  21. bhai jaha election ho raha hai- koshi/seemanchal pe 80% place pe electricity nahi hai, yei phrase hindu vs muslim ho gaya hai- yadav bhi bat gaya hai- it’s like loksabha 2014 western up ho gaya hai- communal tension- rjd getting desperate- rumor going if any yadav vote fr bjp they will cut hands- it’s boiling

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  22. bjp ko yogi adityanath chahiye gorakhphur pe jitne ke liye- itna powerful hai wo- 5 bar ka mp hai- bjp ke sabse bad time 2004 2009 pe 2 lakh se jada vote se jita hai banda- aap to aur powerful mahant yogi aditynath hai, koi usko kuch nahi bolta hai- wo apne marji ke malik hai- even in loksabha modi didn’t campaign fr him – he said u don’t have to come- i can win easly- aab samjho- aur srk and bjp ka prb bahut dino se hai- all know srk like congress- but 2013 is inotolerance bare me puchne par he said i don’t want to comment on politics- but aaj comment kar raha hai- this shows he is hypocrite- politically biased towrds congress, he should avoid any political comment like he avoided in 2013- now it’s war- dono taraf se bat hogi aab- modi/shah just waiting fr finish of bihar election – now u will see attack fr top bjp front against pseudo intellectuals .

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    1. Waiting eagerly for the pseudo seculars to be shown their place. Modi will have to attack them from the Top as perceptions should not be created that we are becoming intolerant. A sweep of Bihar by BJP will put all these people in their right place. India needs development and that should be the mantra of every political party aspiring to lead India.

      If Modi has to be taken on it should be on the basis of Development and not these cooked up stories. Just yesterday I saw Arnab Goswami take on these so called seculars. They had to admit that during Sanjay Gandhis time they could not even open their mouths and today they can say what they like against the ruling party or the Countries PM.

      Time for someone to show them a mirror and who else can be better than our Honorable PM.

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  23. I still fail to understand the logic of BJP behind the cow ad. Is it going to help them that much? How is the situation on the ground? If anybody can share their views?

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  24. Hello everybody. Today I went to Bihar BJP office at Patna. I was so amazed to see the horrible atmosphere over there. The office bearers were hesitating to discuss the current political scenario. They were calculating the voting pattern of second and third phases and believe me the grand alliance according to them were 2.6% ahead in these areas of polling. Also they were criticising paswan and kushwaha(both cabinet ministers from NDA ally) for not giving expected outcomes from there base vote bank. Actually what we came to know in the 2nd &3rd phases post poll trend that Paswan wanted to keep Manjhi(read here as political competitor of Dalit icon) being underdog,so as to prove himself unchallenged Dalit icon in Bihar!! such a bad management from NDA side. This has also been seen by Upendra Kushwaha side too to keep his position tight. What I can say over all that the rural regions of Magadh and Patna(minus urban constituencies) NDA is losing at least 37seats! Modiji should not have blindly trusted this allies. Can one understand giving 86 seats to this vulnerable allies is worth?

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      1. But yesterday Sushil Modi was claiming that NDA had already crossed the magic 122 mark. By end of Vth phase they will reach 2/3 or 3/4 majority. He was so confident that neither Obama nor Sharif could alter the mandate. Too me it looks like over confident. I still feel they need to win atleast 25 to 30 seats in Vth phase to get the majority.

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  25. Friends we all are mature enough to understand that every political party never accept defeat or short comes till the last vote count. Sushil Modiji has been an urban figure who in past had been known to criticize Namo for PM post. He is the one who once said that Nitish ji is a PM material. He talks bullshit. Nand Kishore Yadav is the face of Bihar BJP but Sushil Modi has worked hard under covers to cut his political competitor like Yadav, Prem KUMAR(7th times continued MLA),Ashwini choubey, Dr CP Thakur and so on… So as to keep himself undistinguished leader of BJP in Bihar. Although let us watch this very crucial 5th phase poll of seemanchal and kosi but one thing is sure, BJP needs to get at least 40+seats in this minority and Yadav dominant constituencies. 49 seats out of 57 are fully covered by these two groups! Unfortunately BJP is losing in first two phases if it continued in 5th phase too then game over boss. Namo’ credibility will be on stake. Nitish will come out as his political competitor nation wide. One thing I must tell my social media friends that we all talk high level talks over here but lacks the field level feel. Voter in Bihar votes differently in Loksabha and Vidhansabha. But still let us hope for the best. Finger crossed.

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