Phase 5 ended on Friday recording the highest turnout of 60% in these polls. A MGB bastion MGB + Pawar’s NCP was leading in 49 out of 57 seats in LS polls in 2014. As I stated in my posts earlier whoever wins Phase V would go onto win the polls as till Phase V position was very close 101-82 in favour of NDA (scenario 1) and 110-73 in favour of NDA again (scenario 2) with MGB capable of negating the lead.

PB made his debut on DailyO (by the grace of god and thanks to well wishes of all followers) and listed 11 Factors which would determine the Phase V results. Please read and share this.

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The interplay of the above factors will decide the results of the phase, and ultimately, this phase could well decide the winner of the match. Can the MGB batting on the last day of the test match on a deteriorating pitch steal NDA’s thunder?

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In a blog on Friday afternoon on Phase V Predictions I had predicted 13-17 seats for NDA. Three polls ABP News, Hansa and IBTL predict 25-27 seats for NDA in Phase V. This comes as a big surprise and if NDA bags these many seats in Phase V, then it;s chances of winning the polls increases.

What could have happened in Phase V?

  1. NDA put a focused approach only on 33 seats leaving out Seemanchal.
  2. Reservation comment of 5% to other community was specifically made by Modi keeping Phase V in mind.
  3. Strong booth management and voter mobilization enabled turnout increase of 10% in Darbhanga and 7% in Madhubani having 20 seats and comparatively lesser Muslim population. These both districts have BJP MPs.
  4. Concentrated effort was put on 25 seats where BJP had sitting MLAs.
  5. Cow ads were issued which along with reservation for minority comment polarized Hindus.
  6. Owaisi doing better than expected and putting BJP ahead in 2/6 seats it was contesting.
  7. Amit Shah strategy of putting up and dummy Muslim candidates seems working. In 20 seats of Seemanchal 120 Muslim candidates were contesting. Story of Shah getting Vaghela defeated in 2009 LS by putting up a dummy candidate named Osama is famous.
  8. Pappu Yadav denting MGB vote bank not only in Madhepura but also Supaul (where his wife is MP from Congress) and Purnia.
  9. MGB workers getting tired at the end of this arduous campaign and facing resources crunch.
  10. NCP making a dent in MGB votebank in Katihar.

While it remains to be seen if NDA wins these many seats in Phase V, one thing is for sure it will the decider between the winner and loser of these polls.

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