Phase 5 ended on Friday recording the highest turnout of 60% in these polls. A MGB bastion MGB + Pawar’s NCP was leading in 49 out of 57 seats in LS polls in 2014. As I stated in my posts earlier whoever wins Phase V would go onto win the polls as till Phase V position was very close 101-82 in favour of NDA (scenario 1) and 110-73 in favour of NDA again (scenario 2) with MGB capable of negating the lead.
PB made his debut on DailyO (by the grace of god and thanks to well wishes of all followers) and listed 11 Factors which would determine the Phase V results. Please read and share this.
QUOTE
The interplay of the above factors will decide the results of the phase, and ultimately, this phase could well decide the winner of the match. Can the MGB batting on the last day of the test match on a deteriorating pitch steal NDA’s thunder?
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In a blog on Friday afternoon on Phase V Predictions I had predicted 13-17 seats for NDA. Three polls ABP News, Hansa and IBTL predict 25-27 seats for NDA in Phase V. This comes as a big surprise and if NDA bags these many seats in Phase V, then it;s chances of winning the polls increases.
What could have happened in Phase V?
- NDA put a focused approach only on 33 seats leaving out Seemanchal.
- Reservation comment of 5% to other community was specifically made by Modi keeping Phase V in mind.
- Strong booth management and voter mobilization enabled turnout increase of 10% in Darbhanga and 7% in Madhubani having 20 seats and comparatively lesser Muslim population. These both districts have BJP MPs.
- Concentrated effort was put on 25 seats where BJP had sitting MLAs.
- Cow ads were issued which along with reservation for minority comment polarized Hindus.
- Owaisi doing better than expected and putting BJP ahead in 2/6 seats it was contesting.
- Amit Shah strategy of putting up and dummy Muslim candidates seems working. In 20 seats of Seemanchal 120 Muslim candidates were contesting. Story of Shah getting Vaghela defeated in 2009 LS by putting up a dummy candidate named Osama is famous.
- Pappu Yadav denting MGB vote bank not only in Madhepura but also Supaul (where his wife is MP from Congress) and Purnia.
- MGB workers getting tired at the end of this arduous campaign and facing resources crunch.
- NCP making a dent in MGB votebank in Katihar.
While it remains to be seen if NDA wins these many seats in Phase V, one thing is for sure it will the decider between the winner and loser of these polls.
Politicalbaaba 
THEIR IS A REASON I BELV BJP+ WILL WIN BIHAR- AND THIS IS THE SAME REASON I DOUBT BJP WIN AFTER EXIT POLL- REASON IS – CHANGE- SAME IN DELHI – PPL SAID WE SAW BJP AND CONGRESS- NOW WE WANT TO GIVE KEJRI A CHANCE- SAME IN BIHAR WE SAW CONG LALU AND NITISH- BJP SHOULD GIVEN A CHANCE . WE DON’T NEED TO DO ANY CALCULATION – ALSO 1 FACTOR – 57% VOTE – HIGHEST AFTER INDEPENDENCE – IT SURELY SHOW PPL WANT TO GIVE BJP A CHANCE TO PROVE IN BIHAR SAME THEY GAVE KEJRI A CHANCE IN DELHI- SEATS CAN VARY- BUT BJP WILL WIN 100%- VERY SIMPLE LOGIC.
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BJP WIN IN DELHI *
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Why PB has restricted itself to scenario 1 only. Why scenario 2 was not considered.
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Should be there that’s an error then. Let me check.
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Updated. Thanks for pointing out!
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NDTV is predicting majority for NDA. Phase V 27 seats for NDA and 28 seats for GA. Surprising. But predicted only 31 in phase IV. Surprising.
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Yes it is together 58. I feel as I said earlier 52-60 type with 39-43 in Phase 4 and 13-17 in Phase V.
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Gayi bhais pani me… I live just near to BJP state hq in Patna. Maatam jaisa mahuaal hai bhai log.. 😦 stone throw away distance is the RJD state hq where pandaals and laddus are being prepared… Sushil modi has started living in confined state. Avoiding media persons… Survey wurvey choro doston ek aisa news undercover chal rha hai Patna k political addo pe ki Jitan Ram Manjhi(ex CM) could shake hands with Lalu in bargain with Speaker post as well as Minister seat for his Son fighting election from Aurangabad… Sala kuch bhi kar sakta hai e neta log… Although late night voting(approx 11.00 PM) in Kishanganj/Kathihar/Purnea/ Madhepura/ Araria and Supaul(total of 37 seats) has worried NDA a lot as these districts have consolidated Muslim and Yadav votes share(about 78%). Which the MGB sees as compensation with the phase 4 seats..although fight is neck to neck in other 2 phases(phase 1 already leading by MGB by huge margin) we are hoping better returns in phase 3 a deciding factor.
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Thanks for insight. Jiten Ram Manjhi is susceptible of-course.
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How true are words from Ravi srivastava . political baba ???
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http://www.financialexpress.com/article/markets/indian-markets/will-bihar-assembly-elections-outcome-affect-markets-movement/162628/ see the most relevant surveys by checking the link mentioned… Market giants are the one who are mostly waiting and keeping closet watch on Bihar polls as it is related with their bread n butter… Also to remind. Bihar is the 2 largest State in terms of consumerism…
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Mr Ravi is talking all bull shit matam to JDU headquarter main hai even I live at stone throw distance from that no laddoo making no crackers arrangement even rajeev ranjan a sitting mla admits in a party workers meet today morning that NDA is winning and jdu should not join hand with laloo and as far as laloo is concern he can make whatever he wants to make like ladoo and all laloo to 243 main se 343 jitne ki baat bhi keh sakta manjhi to bin pendi ka loota hai but mark my words Ravi and other followers I m a bihari on ground NDA is 130+ sure
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Hope ur right lalit. That’s the reason I wanted to know from political baba who Ravi srivastava was. Is he someone whom political baba knows personally and can vouch for his credentials. Paapu and Hitlerwals chelas roam every where in the cybet wotld spreading nonsense and intolerance.
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Ravi is a follower like all, don’t know him personally but for that matter most followers I don’t know personally. He has his right to say what he feels. Rebut has come from Lalitji. Will give you ground report soon!
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Boss I being political science. Student and a primary member of abvp doesn’t need to answer my dedication towards my core political party. Critism should be taken positively. If one is having problem with that what can I or pb or any one else can do? Who wants negative results being a supporter of India’s brilliant leadership? PB earlier also I mentioned that surveys are done on social sites and towns not in the interior regions esp effected with naxalism and dark villages… If any one is feeling adverse then learn to adjust in typical situations too. No central leader of BJP is there in Patna to address firmly against media persons… What moral war is being blown by MGB is creating a sense of suspicioun… Why Nitish is so confident that he doesnt need to meet even his party seniors ministers? We bihari already know that how dictator nature he is… He do this type of tantrums only when he is full confident… Any way I m not here to prove my dedication towards party. I know what I m doesn’t need any one else certificate… I hope for the best not only for party but for Bihar too. Gud bye.jai Bihar. Jai Bharat..
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Lets see tom. May the best an win! People of Bihar no who is the best for them!
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Yaar..confident hoke bolo k nda jit raha hai..mg ko 100% seats pe rebel ka samna karna pad raha hai..ladies rjd ko vote nahi kar rahi hai..Mere hisab se
JDU 55
RJD 30
CONG 15
BJP 100
LJP 25
HAM 10
RLSP 5
OTHERS 5
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Good insight Thanks. Already saying NGA 127 MGB 111 Others 5.
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Kaha gaye Mr Meetesh and Mr Sharma?? Jo kal tak mere insights pe criticize kar rhe the? Truth is bitter than Fiction! With due respect to PB who was showing confidence in mines statements… Really BJP and its followers like me needs to learn accepting criticism…. NDA is under 80 here in Bihar… Ab Manjhi ke bal pe Hi jeetna ho to BJP leadership should take poison….
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Sir you were true. I gave 35% probability to MGB win but it seems BJP has been raped and I was wrong. Learning from this for me. I got only 1 projection right that Lalu will get more seats than Nitish. Some consolation. https://twitter.com/politicalbaaba/status/650879492555051008
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PB kindly kick off those who doesn’t want to listen the truth… These ppl neve come on ground. Just on social sites… One thing is for sure and that these voters only trusted in Modi last year then why this tyn BJP was shattered and brutally raped by the same people. Even Sushil Modi credits Laluji with Kingmaker and Chanakya of Indian Politcs irrespective of all charges… Sumo words should be taken as regards not by ppl over here who were Criticizing me…. Forever Good By. Best wishes PB..
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Your comments are valuable. I have always appreciated. So would appeal to you to be a regular visitor to the blog and give your insights. Thanks
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Don’t get emotional. I personally don’t know anybody who comes and visits the blog makes comments. As long as you have a right to make your point. Similarly others also have a right to make point. Come on stay back!
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