Who will win #BiharElections?


This is the final piece on request of followers though I have made myself amply clear that NDA will win with 127, MGA at 111 and Others at 5.

The D-Day is nearing, only a day’s wait till the results of Bihar elections are out. It has kept political analysts, voters, public interested in politics / elections glued to TV screens, print media, social media platforms.

I attempted to answer the puzzle in a 5 part series named Who will win Bihar before the polls started. Based on a myriad of factors PB projected a NDA win with 123-147 seats, Janata alliance (MGB) getting 89-102 seats and Others 7-18 seats (pre-poll).

During the course of polls I presented a Phase wise (till Phase 3 even seat wise) predictions based on feedback from volunteers / supporters / followers / media persons on the ground. On the day Phase V elections were taking place and before the exit polls got released I presented Phase V Predictions & Who wins Bihar and showed the following two scenarios:

Scenario 1: MGB 124, NDA 114, Others 5 (35% probability)

Scenario 2: NDA 127, MGB 11, Others 5 (65% probability)

Since it is a damn close elections & exit polls won’t give clarity which I have been saying all along the above hypothesis was not unfounded.

People really enjoyed the reasoning and logic of the above predictions and I received wonderful comments / appreciation on social media for this piece. Some people however were not happy asking me to take a stand.

I think the stand has been very clear since the beginning 123-147 seats for NDA (pre-poll) as well as post-poll NDA win. The post poll analysis overwhelmingly shows (65% is > than 35%) that I project NDA to win. This I clarified the same day with some tweets & later tweets as well.

Other polls already point towards my above forecast. Infact NDTV first three phases were very similar to what I said in my post poll updates.

So I maintain my stand of NDA win with NDA at 127, MGB at 111 and Others at 5. And if MGB wins don’t worry I won’t take credit and preach on top that I was right.

Though I still maintain elections are damn close meaning victory margins of NDA candidates will be in the range of 3-5,000 votes for most seats.

Good Night guys. Sleep well…

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4 thoughts on “Who will win #BiharElections?

  1. It definitely has been a real gripping. So much so that passion the next ten hours is not so easy. Ur inputs have definitely been amazing and hope to see ur messages in future elections

    Like

    1. Many thanks for all your inputs. Thanks to supporters like you I got to write along big shots like rajdeep sardesai, minhaz merchant and yogendra yadav likes in DailyO website (India Today Group). Pls participate in quiz if you haven’t already!

      Like

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