One of the Biggest Signals to Bihar Verdict — Leadership ratings!


Leadership Ratings: Is it the biggest clue to Bihar election results?

Co-authored article for Hindustan Times with Subhash Chandra (@schandra_100)

Date: 04 Nov, 2015

In less than a week from now, the results of the 2015 assembly elections will be known. Whichever side wins, the results would have immediate bearing on politics across the country. The Narendra Modi- Amit Shah jodi has thrown their entire weight behind the campaign to ensure a BJP victory. Any loss here could have serious ramifications on the continuation of Shah as the president of the party.

While most of the opinion polls say the NDA will emerge victorious (in-fact only two, Cicero and CNN IBN put the Grand Alliance on top), all of them consistently show that Kumar is the top choice for the chief minister’s post among voters. The NDA’s unnamed CM candidate comes up with a share which is much lower than the predicted NDA share. This contradiction is unusual and could play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

Nitish Kumar as Bihar chief minister is fairly popular. About 64% voters in the Lok Sabha election said they were satisfied with his government’s performance (CSDS Poll). Infact according to Ipsos, satisfaction levels with the Nitish Kumar government is higher than satisfaction levels with the Narendra Modi government. Still, a poll of polls (of 3 polls used below) shows that the NDA is expected to garner 0.6% higher vote share than the Grand Alliance.

We considered a small sample of recent elections (for which full data was available) and noticed an interesting trend. In all the cases, the gap between leadership ratings and vote share/ intention to vote ratings was quite small. In fact in the National Election study by CSDS during the Lok Sabha election, the preference for Modi was 35.7%, and the NDA vote share was 38.5%. In 2009, the combined rating of UPA leaders was 39.7% against a vote share of 36.5%.

The data for Bihar show a huge gap for the Grand Alliance where Nitish scores an average of 48% versus an average intention to vote of 40.7% . Similarly, in the case of the NDA, the sum of the top three candidates is significantly lower than the predicted vote share. This sort of contradiction did not exist in Maharashtra where the sum of the leading BJP candidates was almost equal to the final vote share.

There could be different explanations for the divergence

* Unlike other elections, including Maharashtra, Kumar is a popular incumbent and is therefore likely to get higher ratings due to the absence of a known opponent.

* While Kumar is popular, the voting intention is perhaps affected by the poor ratings for his alliance partners, the RJD and Congress.

* The caste polarisation means that many of the voters may be making choices not just on the basis of leadership, but on caste affiliations

While the above explanations are logical, it is unclear how this will play out in a close election in Bihar.

A similar trend was visible in the Delhi polls held earlier this year. Initially, all polls gave a higher vote share to the BJP while Kejriwal remained the most preferred CM candidate. This contradiction was eventually corrected by the mid of January when polls gave Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) the lead in terms of vote share as well, though popularity of Kejriwal dipped a bit due to announcement of Kiran Bedi as BJP CM candidate. The vote share gap moved in tandem with the popularity gap between Kejriwal and the second top contender and turned from negative to Advantage AAP just ahead of polling.

In Bihar, Nitish Kumar has continued to top the charts, even in polls which predict a win and a higher vote share for the NDA. Sushil Modi did manage to close the gap by the first phase of polls, but this anomaly of sorts could not be corrected across most of the opinion polls, except in those by Cicero and CNN-IBN.

So what does this mean for the Bihar elections?

Intuitively, this favours the Grand Alliance like it did in Delhi. For example, Yadav (19% voted for NDA in LS polls) and Kurmi (30% voted for NDA in LS polls) voters, who chose the NDA in the Lok Sabha election, may have a higher incentive to return to their caste fold given the high ratings for Nitish Kumar. EBC voters (53% voted for NDA in LS polls) are also likely to be more open to vote for the better leadership, given that this segment is not well represented in both the alliances. Leadership was one of the key factors which differentiated the BJP from other parties in the LS polls, and catapulted it to an an absolute majority.

These theories will be put to test in each constituency where myriad other factors like anti-incumbency against sitting MLA, rebel candidates, caste combinations and turnout would also drive voter choice. Whether this could play out like in the past, or a new chapter would be written, will be known on the 8th of November. Either way, there will be a new learning from the 2015 Bihar elections.

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4 thoughts on “One of the Biggest Signals to Bihar Verdict — Leadership ratings!

  1. I’ve been following Political Baba for done time to obtain Bihar poll analysis. I thing post the result I can say none of you guys that include TV channels understand elections, all are just news traders. Analyzing elections is both science and arts that none of you understand. If you guys do this for your living, I think you should change your profession.

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    1. Thanks Amit.I am really pained at the comments you have made. First of all PB is a one man show and i don’t do this for making a living. This is my hobby, my passion. PB is now one of the top blogs on Indian politics and elections due to the quality / insightful articles published and opinion on topics of national importance. The blog has two parts analytical pieces and projections (popular demand). Unlike many others who just publish a number I try to weave a story around it. If you mean projections went wrong it happened with all exit polls who have big access to resources. The prokjections were based on data and feedback on the ground. I always maintained it is a close elections. Infact I gave 35% probability for MGB win. The feedback is also taken from readers like you who visit the blog and put in comments. If you had the crystal ball to see what the results were going to be you should have mentioned earlier to me and I would have seriously taken it into consideration. In the end its a call which went wrong. Many calls like Lalu will get more seats than Nitish went right. Previous projections have also been proved correct. So its not a big deal. There are learnings from this which I carry and will try to improve. Thanks again for your frank and honest assessment.

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  2. Post election defeat Amit shah and Modi doesn’t look like really analysing the root cause of failure. They have to shed out their arrogance. Must get opinion from party worker comments from village and semi urban regions. But looks like they are still not going in right direction.

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