PBs twisty take on top five headlines of the day.

1. President’s rule imposed in Arunachal – Battle moves to courts!

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President ratified Cabinet’s decision on imposition of President’s Rule in Arunachal Pradesh after Rajnath explained to him the rationale. Congress will challenge the order in Supreme Court and hearing is today. If it overturns or puts a stay it will be major embarrassment for Modi.

If there is political instability Governor should have dissolved the assembly and ordered fresh polls. This is like ruling by proxy. The suspended assembly will only help horse trading. It is the exact way this Government held Delhi Assembly after BJP came to power at center in May 2014, eventually failed to form govt. and lost badly in following elections.

2. Gold jumps to 12 – week high as equities and oil tumble – Thought gold was finished!

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Gold rallied to its highest in nearly 12 weeks on Tuesday as equity markets and oil continued their downward slide. This is a strong comeback for the asset class which was written off by everybody.

One more learning for the economists. Now everybody will join the banwagon and predict gains for gold. Their job is tough. Most economic theories are build around “other things remaining the same” principle, which is rarely the case.

3. Nepal PM not to visit India until blockade is lifted – Your call!

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Despite two constitutional amendments, the Madheshi Morcha is continuing with the blockade. India is seen to be backing this group and Nepalese premier has put his India visit contingent to this lifting.

While PM Modi has been travelling across world and forged better relations, here locally he has failed to ensure smooth ties with Nepal in the sub continent leading to Nepal getting closer to China.

 

 

4. Nitish suspends MLA who misbehaved with a woman in train – Only after a lot of pressure from public / media!

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JD(U) MLA Sarfraz Alam, who allegedly misbehaved with a woman on the Dibrugarh-New Delhi Rajdhani Express has been suspended from the party. Der aaye durust aaye.

Lalu camp claiming credit as they had given a 48 hour deadline to Nitish. It took time because the MLA was from an important vote bank community of both Lalu and Nitish. Majority of MLAs and MPs across India have criminal record so what is expected of them? Electoral reforms the need of the hour!

5. Desh ka mood ABP Poll – Modi rides on TINA factor!

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54% respondents rate his performance as the prime minister of India above average (marginally down from 62% last year). 58% consider him as the most popular leader (47% higher than Rahul). TINA factor clearly helping Modi.

If elections held today, NDA will win 301 seats (-35) and UPA 102 (+40). We know the limitations of survey and they have just factored in Delhi (7) and Bihar losses (22) till date so not something out of the world.

In my opinion NDA will struggle to reach BJP tally of 282 if elections held today with losses in MP, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, UP, Bihar, Jharkhand and Delhi.

 

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