The season of polls is back. ABP News – Neilsen’s Poll “Desh Ka Mood” was aired yesterday and the key highlights are below:
1. 54% respondents rate Modi govt. performance as above average
This is reminiscent of Modi government’s good track record in taming corruption and price rise. However, losses in Delhi and Bihar due to dis-satisfaction with the government has led to a decline by 8% compared to May 2015. According to Transparency International Report India was less corrupt in 2015 (76th rank) vs 2014 (85th rank). Retail inflation levels down to 5% levels from 10% during MMS last years of tenure.
2. 58% respondents rate Modi as the most popular leader (47% lead over Rahul, 54% over Kejriwal and 56% over Nitish)
Modi continues to be fairly popular leader in the country with a big lead over others. Rahul’s poor leadership qualities, his dis-inclination / dis-interest towards the big job make his case weak. The only way to tackle Modi would be setting up of an anti-BJP front and a common leader which is a difficult task.
3. If elections held today NDA would get 301 seats (-35) & Congress 102 (+40)
In terms of vote share NDA expected to get 38% (-1%) and Congress 28% (+5%). Congress is seen gaining at the expense of NDA (35) and Others (5) in terms of seats. Highly doubtful that this is a nationwide survey covering all seats and is hence an extrapolation. It seems that they have reduced seats in Bihar (-22) and Delhi (-7) based on results in these states.
NDA recorded stupendous show in UP 73 (91%), Gujarat 26 (100%), Rajasthan 25 (100%), MP 27 (93%), Jharkhand 11 (92%), Bihar 31 (80%), Maharashtra 44 (92%) and Chhattisgarh 10 (91%); 74% of its overall tally from these states in 2014. In all these states it will struggle to retain its performance. I reckon a loss of c.80 seats in these eight states.
Then the leadership angle comes into play. In successive elections LS 2014, Delhi 2015, Bihar 2015, leadership has played an important role. Modi’s leadership / popularity ratings will be able to negate this loss of seats to some extent. TINA factor will also help Modi.
Based on the above considerations PB believes NDA will be able to get near the 282 tally (BJP’s standalone tally in 2014) if elections are held today lower than 301 predicted by ABP-Nielsen. Without grouping of anti-BJP forces NDA will continue to have an edge (though gap is reducing).
One inconsistency in the poll, it says 43% vote share for BJP, 3% for TDP and 1% for Shiv Sena, this makes it 47% for NDA. But in the seat tally it says 38% for NDA. This I think is a better estimation of vote share. Similarly it says 14% for Congress and 4% for allies, while in seat tally it says 28% for UPA. BJP 33% and Congress 24% could be correct estimates. Excel sheet error.