#MoodofNation Poll – PB Analysis


The season of polls is back. After ABP News – Neilsen’s Poll’s “Desh Ka Mood” survey, India Today conducted a Mood of the Nation Poll.

The poll was conducted by Karvy Insights Ltd. A total of 13,576 interviews were conducted across 97 Lok Sabha constituencies in 19 states. So the poll is not representative and this is one of its weakness.

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5 Key highlights below:

1. 58% respondents rate Modi govt. performance as good or outstanding

This is reminiscent of Modi government’s good track record in taming corruption and price rise. However, losses in Delhi and Bihar due to dis-satisfaction with the government has led to a decline of 3% compared to April 2014. Modi is still very popular among upper castes at 54% but his popularity among SCs/STs is only 33% .

2. Rahul Gandhi’s popularity is up from 8% in Aug 2015 to 22% in Feb 2016 but 

Well done Rahul! He is also seen as the best alternative to challenge Modi in 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This means Congress can try to cobble together a 1977 type Janata Party type alliance in 2019 comprising of Left, Janata Dal constituents, DMK etc. This may not succeed though as I deliberated in an article on DailyO.

3. If elections held today NDA would get 286 seats (-50) & Congress 102 (+48)

NDA expected to still get a simple majority despite all intolerance, negativity and anti Modi sentiment which is played up by the media. Majority of NDA losses will be lapped up by UPA. Recall ABP-Nielsen poll gave 301 seats to NDA. At that time in my analysis I had said that the number was too high and NDA would get approx. 282 seats. This poll reinforces my prediction.

4. Nitish & Kejriwal are the most popular Chief Ministers in India

The two regional satraps with national ambitions are the two most popular chief ministers in India.While Nitish trying to spread wings and unite all ex Janata Dal constituents, if AAP wins Punjab, his claim to the top post will be emboldened.

5. 43% say Rahul should be replaced by Priyanka 

While survey had good news for Rahul, he has competition from within. 43% respondents said Rahul should be replaced by Priyanka Gandhi showing her popularity among rural and women voters. But she comes with a baggage named Robert Vadra. So this may not be a correct strategy till the two are together….

TINA factor is helping Modi. Will it help him again in 2019? Only time will tell…

 

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