• C-Voter opinion poll predicts a hung assembly – INC (102), BJP (96), JDS (25), Others & Independents (1). Half way mark is 113.
  • In terms of vote share, the Congress and the BJP are neck to neck with 36.6% and 35.9% vote shares. JD (S) is touted to get 18.8 % while others 8.7%.
  • In the history of Karnataka polls, public have given a hung verdict only twice, once in 1983 and another time in 2004.
  • Noted political scientist Dr. Shastri explains the reasons for hung assembly to OneIndia.com.
    • In 1983, state was transiting from a one-party domination to a competitive party.
    • In 1983 the Congress was defeated, but the people were not sure if the then Janata Party was the competitor.
    • By 1985, it was clear and the Janata Party got the majority.
    • Between 1983 and 2004, the competition was between Janata Party and Congress.
    • In 2004, the two-party competition system changed and BJP came into the picture.
    • The year 2004 saw the BJP emerging as the single largest party. It was in competition with the Congress and the Janata Dal (S).
  • Shastri cites two reasons why Karnataka will not witness a hung assembly.
    • Given the nature of competition in Karnataka, today and the fact that the Janata Dal has been limited to small pockets of influence would ensure that the party would end up a distant third.
    • This would mean that the key competition would be between Congress and BJP.
    • The manner in which it is panning out indicates that the two parties are the mainstay in the competition.
    • ‘This year sees no political transition taking place. That is why I say that it will not be a hung assembly. A hung assembly is seen when the state is in political transition.
  • Impossible is possible in politics.
  • While it is true that people are increasing giving clear mandates, post 2014, J&K, Goa, Manipur and Meghalaya have thrown up hung assemblies with no clear winner.
  • If there is a hung assembly in Karnataka, people will come up with new theories as to why such a situation emerged.
  • Probability of hung assembly though is low in my opinion but can’t be ruled out.

 

Advertisements