• Turnout (TO) has been a key determinant of results of assembly elections
  • Higher turnout denotes anti-incumbency and desire of voters to overthrow the government
  • Lower turnout denotes voters not enthused about overthrowing government
  • An analysis of 12 big states which went to polls after Lok Sabha elections in 2014 throws interesting trend
  • 8 states voted out state governments, 7 of them recorded a higher TO

TO.png

  • Only Punjab which saw change of govt. recorded a low TO
  • 4 states re-elected the incumbent governments, 3 of them recorded low TO
  • Only Bihar recorded a high TO and still re-elected govt.
  • So TO will play a crucial role
  • Higher TO means high anti incumbency against Siddaramaiah
  • Low TO means he is safe
  • Different regions have different turnout dynamics
  • Bengaluru low TO will damage BJP prospects
  • Other factor is NOTA
  • Higher NOTA will benefit Congress, as it denotes people unhappy with Congress but not confident of BJP solving their problems
  • Top 4 NOTA voting big states are Bihar, Gujarat, WB, TN

NOTA

  • Common thread all returned incumbent govt.
  • Now its all about D-Day management, voter mobilization, ensuring support groups vote / remain enthused to vote
  • Its a weekend BJP needs to ensure high TO in urban seats and ensure people don’t make weekend plans
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