By – Subhash Chandra
All said and done, BJP still appears to be ahead of the curve for the 2019 election. Summarising predictions below from our web-site. Figures indicate shift from a fortnight ago.
BJP – 237 (-1)
Congress – 107 (+1)
BSP -11 (0)
SP – 13 (0)
SHS – 13 (0)
DMK – 16 (16)
TMC – 23 (+1)
TRS – 10 (0)
TDP -11(0)
NDA- 49 (-2)
BSP – 13 (+2)
NDA – 26 (+2)
BJP – 12 (+1)
BJP – 25 (-1)
Congress – 8 (+1)
DMK Alliance – 26 (-1)
BJP – 13 (+2)
BJP – 19 (+2)
BJP – 16 (New)
BJP – 20 (new)
Narendra Modi – 80%
Most Preferred Opposition Leader
Rahul Gandhi – 21%
Number 1 focus required from the Central Government
Primary Education Quality – 33%
With BJP settling at the 235-240 range and the Congress party in the 100-110 range, the election seems to have settled in a Rhythm. The Congress appears to be gaining some 30 Seats in direct competition with BJP and another 20 seats in alliance in Bihar, UP etc and another 5-10 seats elsewhere compared to 2014. While these numbers appear to be optimistic, they seem to be reiterated from two different prediction methods. Predictors must be cautious about the build up. The BJP has gained in both Rajasthan (probably due to the PM visit) and also in MP compared to last week. It appears to have lost in both Karnataka and Maharashtra
Rahul Gandhi does not appear to be enjoying huge support amongst voters though as the CSDS survey indicates is on an upswing and some 10-15 points away from Modi. The opposition leader closest to Rahul Gandhi is Chandrababu Naidu.
Overall, the election environment is still favourable to the BJP. However, should the Congress party end up with even 80-90 seats, their tails will be up for future elections. The political environment is far from moving to a single party rule, the voters appear to be far more complex than we would like to believe.
The rule of the game is very simple, gain a majority and viola you are declared as the winner of 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Is BJP
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my prediction of election 2019 on bjp or congress party . bjp will win the election of lok sabha in 2019
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There are many factors that differentiate 2014 from 2019. I will not share the popularity of Modi, its appeal etc. As elections are 10 months away and things and perception can change in any direction. Hence, this prediction will be entirely based on the numerical balance due to alliances, possibilities of repetition of 2014 and the general trend in assembly elections.
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Thank you Nisha!
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I do agree that BJP is far away from getting a clear mandate in 2019. But they will still be able to form government with the help of other political parties. But at no cost would i support a third front in the country.
http://www.politicalbabu.com/modi-government-performance-till-now/
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Narendra Modi is a charismatic person who does not require any introduction; here is a trip down memory lane to the journey of Modi
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grt info:
http://election.setuonline.com
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