Adventure like snake-ladder, Raman Singh emerges victorious in a nail biting finish

Chhattisgarh assembly elections have always been close. The 2013 elections were no different. BJP won 49 out of 90 seats but the margin of victory was less than 1%. Luckily, this difference in vote share didn’t translate into seats.

The vote share gap between Congress and BJP has been consistently reducing from 2.6% in 2003 to 1.7 % in 2008 to 0.7% in 2013. The seat share gap has also declined form 13 in 2003 to 10 in 2013. BSP vote share has been 

2003 2008 2013
BJP Vote Share 39.3% 40.3% 42.30%
INC Vote Share 36.7% 38.6% 41.60%
Gap 2.6% 1.7% 0.7%
BSP Vote Share 4.4% 6.1% 4.4%
BJP Seat Tally 50 50 49
INC Seat Tally 37 38 39
Gap 13 12 10

Source: www.indiavotes.com

This formula worked

Raman Singh knew well that local anti incumbency has played a role in every election since 2013. He was aware that people are unhappy with some of his MLAs and that’s why he appealed to the public to vote for him (Raman Singh) and not the candidate. 

This formula worked and many candidates also succeed in winning while there were clear doubts about their victory. In a way the Presidential Elections style adopted by Raman Singh worked for BJP.

Broken myth of Bastar

It is said that the keys to power in Chattisgarh lies in Bastar. This myth was also broken down due to Raman Singh’s magisc. In Bastar BJP won only 4 out of 12 seats but still succeeded in forming the government, while Congress which won 8 out of 12 seats was forced to sit in opposition again.

Perhaps Congress paid too much attention on this trend and concentrated a lot on this region while ignoring others. On the other hand Raman Singh paid equal attention to every nook and corner of the state.

These were also some big reason

Whenever it is talked about Raman Singh’s Victory, his good work in the field of development, social welfare schemes and infrastructure are credited. Carrying out development work in the state like Chhattisgarh which is affected by maoist violence and dominated  by tribals is not easy.

Magic of Raman Singh on urban seats

BJP did well on the urban seats. The vote share of the Congress party also increased, but BJP dented into vote bank of BSP and others to compensate for it. The polls witnessed record turnout of more than 75%. BJP’s victory was comprehensive as the party won 23 seats with more than 10 thousand votes. BJP’s performance in Central Chhattisgarh was spectacular as it won 28 out of 43 seats. BSP’s vote share declined on SC reserved seats from 14.4% in 2008 to 8.9% in 2013, which benefited the BJP as it won 9 out of 10 reserved seats.

The vote share gap in 2013 was less than 1%. Its very difficult to predict which way the wind will blow in 2018. Yeh jo public hai yeh sab jaanti hai! Till then wait and watch.

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