Bihar was a cracker of an elections where Lalu-Nitish jodi recorded a stupendous victory.
Politicalbaaba covered the elections in detail with extensive coverage of the polls, unique research, pre-poll projections, phase wise overview, exit poll analysis and post poll verdict analysis.
During this 4 month journey many of PB’s articles were published in prestigious news websites like Hindustan Times, DailyO (India Today Group), Swarajyamag and Niticentral.
A big thanks to all for your love, affection, criticism and support.
PRE-POLL ANALYSIS
1. Bihar Polls – A Curtain-raiser
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/07/29/bihar-polls-a-curtain-raiser/
2. Bihar Polls: SWOT Analysis of Janata Parivaar Alliance
3. Is it the end of saga called Lalu?
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/08/09/is-it-the-end-of-saga-called-lalu/
4. Caste is cast in stone in Bihar politics
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/08/11/caste-is-cast-in-stone-in-bihar-politics/
5. Law & Order Situation in Bihar – A Statistical Perspective
6. Decoding the seat sharing between Lalu-Nitish in Bihar
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/08/20/decoding-the-lalu-nitish-seat-sharing-in-bihar/
7. Owaisi to Lalu: Here I come
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/08/22/owaisi-to-lalu-here-i-come/
8. Will Muslims & Mahadalits decide the fate of BIhar polls?
9. Seat sharing muddle of NDA in Bihar
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/08/31/seat-sharing-muddle-of-nda-in-bihar/
10. Probable Spoliers in Bihar Elections
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/09/12/potential-spoilers-in-bihar-elections/
11. Opinion Polls add to the suspense in Bihar Polls
12. Poll: Who will win Bihar Assembly elections?
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/09/17/poll-who-will-win-bihar-assembly-elections/
13. Phase-wise Election Schedule of Bihar
14. Why NDA is expected to win Bihar?
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/09/21/biharelections-why-nda-is-expected-to-win-bihar/
15. Quiz Contest on Bihar Elections
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/09/20/quiz-contest-biharelections-2015/
16. 2010 Assembly Polls Seat Wise Results with Margins
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/09/23/2010-seat-wise-bihar-results-with-margins/
17. Who will win Bihar? – Part I
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/09/24/biharelections-who-will-win-bihar-part-i/
18. Politicalbaaba Bihar Projections
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/09/23/biharelections-politicalbaaba-bihar-projections/
19. Who will win Bihar? – Part II
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/09/27/biharelections-who-will-win-bihar-part-ii/
20. Who will win Bihar? – Part III
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/06/biharelections-who-will-win-bihar-part-iii/
21. Who will win Bihar? – Part IV
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/09/biharelections-who-will-win-bihar-part-iv/
22. Who will win Bihar? – Part V (Final)
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/10/biharelections-who-will-win-bihar-part-v-final-2/
23. Opinion Poll Summary Table
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/11/biharpolls-opinion-poll-summary/
DURING THE POLLS
24. Overview of Phase I
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/11/biharelections-all-set-for-phase-i-tomorrow/
25. Grand Master Sheet of Phase 1 of Bihar Elections
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/09/biharelections-grand-cheat-sheet-phase-i/
26. Post Poll Update Phase 1
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/17/phase-1-biharelections-post-poll-update/
27. Overview of Phase 2
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/11/biharelections-all-set-for-phase-i-tomorrow/
28. Grand Master Sheet Phase 2
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/15/biharelections-grand-cheat-sheet-phase-2/
29. Post Poll Update Phase 2
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/16/phase2-biharelections-post-poll-update/
30. Phase 1: Its not what it seems to be
http://swarajyamag.com/politics/bihar-phase-1-it-is-not-what-it-seems-to-be/
31. PB Projections Phase 1 & 2 Combined
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/27/politicalbaaba-projections-phase-1-2-combined/
32. Phase 3 Master Sheet
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/27/bihar-elections-master-sheet-phase-3/
33. Overview of Phase 3
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/28/overview-of-phase3-of-biharelections-2/
34. Seat Wise Analysis & Dynamics of Phase 3
35. The Many Contradictions of Bihar Polls
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/25/the-many-contradictions-of-bihar-polls/
36. Will Manjhi be the Mountain Man for BJP in Bihar?
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/24/will-manjhi-be-the-mountain-man-for-bjp-in-bihar/
37. What may be working and what may not be working for Nitish in Bihar Elections?
38. The Bihar Cricket Match
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/21/the-bihar-cricket-match-2/
39. How Bihar elections is uncannily similar to Delhi elections?
40. Phase 3: Post Poll Update
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/29/bihar-elections-phase-3-post-poll-update/
41. Phase 4 Overview
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/31/overview-of-phase-4-of-bihar-polls/
42. Master Sheet Phase 4
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/10/31/biharelections-grand-master-sheet-phase-4/
43. Phase 4 Post Poll Update
44. Phase 5 Overview
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/11/04/overview-of-phase-5-of-bihar-polls/
45. Master Sheet Phase 5
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/11/04/bihar-elections-phase-5-master-sheet/
46. 11 Reasons why Phase V will change everything
46. Phase 5 Predictions & Who will win Bihar
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/11/05/phase-v-predictions-who-wins-bihar/
47. 10 Reasons Why NDA could have done better in Phase V
48. Leadership ratings: Is it the biggest clue to Bihar election results?
EXIT POLLS
49. From Chanakya to C-Voter what exit polls don’t tell you about Bihar
50.Forget exit polls, Bihar will be a game of Others
51. How Bihar exit polls re-inforce my 5 statements
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/11/06/how-bihar-exit-polls-re-inforce-my-5-statements/
52. Bihar Exit Polls Summary
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/11/06/bihar-exit-polls-a-comedy-of-errors/
VERDICT ANALYSIS
53. Bihar reposes faith in Nitish Kumar
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/11/08/bihar-reposes-faith-in-nitish-kumar/
54. How the Captain and the Vice Captain Failed Team NDA?
55. How BJP & Allies missed the Chemistry?
http://swarajyamag.com/politics/bihar-how-bjp-and-allies-missed-the-chemistry/
56. Did the anti-reservation comment impact BJP performance in Bihar?
57. Why Lalu will not make Nitish Kumar the biggest loser of Bihar elections
58. How Manjhi failed to be the mountain man of BJP in Bihar
59. Six reasons why BJP should have declared a CM candidate in Bihar
60. Bihar Polls was a 3 cornered fight and the others scored high
NICE Representation of your blog..
youth akali dal
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Thanks
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I do seem to like how and in what great detail you cover each story. Keep going!
(I blog at commoncolumn.wordpress.com . Check it out and tell me how you like it)
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Sure. Thanks! It is based on what topic.
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Wel uptil now, the blog has been no more than a collectio of views on a range of topics about India (even politics). But I am now open to the idea of having guest posts or even syndicated/occasional bloggers on the site.
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Ok.
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When will u post the seat wise analysis and prediction on second phase of Poll in BIHAR which is scheduled to be held tmrw
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An hour or so. Thanks
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Posted. Have a look. Pretty tight!
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Yea… Very good description… Are the coming 3 phases comprise of the real strong holds of NDA?
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2,3,4 ok 5 Muslim stronghold
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Infact, I forgot Seemanchal… That means NDA have to earn the most in the next two phases
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Hope u will post the post Poll scenario of phase 2 tonight
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seat by seat difficult looks like NDA has slight edge 16-18 vs 14-16 see on Niticentral
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http://www.niticentral.com/2015/10/16/bihar-2015-phase-2-seatwise-analysis-335274.html
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Thank u… That means NDA have not done bad in the first two phases…
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Ok not gr8 Phase 2 would have been better with 18-20
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Hi, will you come with an analysis of how did different parties do in Bihar 3rd phase?
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Already posted!
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Thanks. But I have a query. When I see electronic and print media in the last few weeks, predominantly they are indicating that NDA is not doing well in Bihar. In fact, some media persons like Rajdeep Sardesai or Choubey of CNN-IBN go to the extend of predicting Mahagatbandhan sweep. They have been projecting a negative scenario for BJP/NDA since the beginning of October. On the basis of what data, are they doing this?
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Mixture of bias and may be some cues from the ground.
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Hi, as per economic times article, satta bazaar is favoring Grand alliance whereas till a couple of days back they were favoring NDA. All looks rather confusing.
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Yes. Its damn close elections as I have been saying! May the best man win. Satta Bazar expected to come up with another update favouring NDA soon.
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As far as I believe, NDA will get thru with 122-135 seats
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Thanks Krishna!
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How about seat analysis for fourth phase
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Just uploaded Master Sheet. Got caught up in E-Book and forgot the date of poll. I thought it is 2nd. Only overview this time. Any specific seat you want to know let me know. Thanks
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Whats your tomorrows predictions….
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NDA min 38. Thanks Ravi.
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Pls participate in quiz contest to win prizes.
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Is NDA going in right direction in this phase?????
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Yep! Bumper!
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https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/11/02/phase-4-of-bihar-elections-post-poll-update-nda-ahead/
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What are todays predictions sir
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Just wait for a couple of hours. Initial trends and research shows 40+.
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Any initial gut-feel of how the 4th phase of had gone? How much NDA and RJD-JDU alliance will get respectively?
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Just wait for a few hours. Initial trends 40+ for NDA.
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https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/11/02/phase-4-of-bihar-elections-post-poll-update-nda-ahead/
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What are todays predictions….we are waiting eagerly…..
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Just wait for a couple of hours. Initial trends NDA 40+.
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Thanx very much….
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Welcome! Have you seen the E-Book?
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https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/11/02/phase-4-of-bihar-elections-post-poll-update-nda-ahead/
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Yet to fully go through the e-book. Very good initiative
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E-Book is excellent. Given every bit of info in detail. Kudos
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https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2015/11/02/phase-4-of-bihar-elections-post-poll-update-nda-ahead/
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Bihar elections are becoming so intresting……Its thrilling…….
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It’s like watching a thriller. Expect the unexpected.
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Plz tell….on whom you will bet your money….
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Sir thoda time de do. Tom or day after for sure a detailed post on that!
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Ok sir..
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But sir…you have yet not told on whom you will bet your money…..
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few hours
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exit polls are saying mahagathbandhan is winning….will it be true???
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It is a close elections as I have mentioned in all posts and you must have noticed. It will boil down to each seat. Each seat has its own dynamics. NDA has an advantage and I feel and as I mentioned in the post in the afternoon NDA 127 MGB 111 & Others 5 will be final tally.
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what are fifth phase post poll prediction
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17.
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Sir….as you have predicted aaj tak cicero also predicting same….Its taking higher and lower number of your prediction…like its showing 111 to 124 to mahagatbandhan and 114 to 127 to NDA….it means your prediction may come right…..
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Ha ha! My prediction appeared before the exit polls. So I didn’t copy.
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Aaj tak may have copied you
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ha ha kahan sir!
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ABP news saying NDA getting 24 seats in final phase….will it be true?????
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Minimum 17 now. Split of votes in Kishanganj has also helped and BJP is in with chance in 1-2 seats.
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Sir…if mahagatbandhan had not done well in the last phase then as your predictions it cant win election….Chances of NDA increases….what is your opinion????
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Yep correct. NDA slated to win!
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Guys, Stop publishing non sense in the name of opinion / exit polls. Psephology is is its diapers in India and no amount of on-the-ground knowledge is sufficient to predict the outcome of complex elections like in India. Add to it, the Sickulars and Prestitutes that influence people’s mind in all possible ways. Let’s face it.
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Its a big test for the industry agreed.
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nice post
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read During this 4 month journey many of PB’s articles were published in prestigious news websites like Hindustan Times, DailyO (India Today Group), Swarajyamag and Niticentral.
install https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.knowledgeworld.etvbihar
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read Bihar was a cracker of an elections where Lalu-Nitish jodi recorded a stupendous victory.
install https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.knowledgeworld.etvbihar
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