Key Political Parties – Bhartiya Janata Party


In the 1st post on Elections 2014 we take a look at BJP (the leading opposition party), recent events, internal politics and prospects.

BJP Takes a Punt – Declares NaMo as Head of Election Campaign Committee

BJP has gambled big time by declaring NaMo, three times Chief Minister of Gujarat, as its Chief Election Campaigner. It was feared that this move could increase infighting in BJP, alienate Muslim voters as well as some NDA partners. There was a lot of resistance and debate internally before appointing him (after all BJP is a democratic party).

The fears appeared to be true when sulken BJP patriarch Advani resigned (only to take it back in 48 hours) and long time ally JD(U) broke ties with BJP.

Feel the decision to nominate NaMo is a bold one, however it’s also true that BJP had no choice and he is party’s best bet. Its like putting your best batsman (Tendulkar) forward to open the innings when chasing a huge total. NaMo is party’s most popular leader, thanks to development work in Gujarat, a smart / effective PR campaign and has a strong appeal among urban voters and youth. However he lacks rural support.

Rajnath Singh (a novice in national politics till now and a compromise candidate for BJP Party President), with the help of RSS, saw an opportunity to emerge stronger within the ranks by taking sides with NaMo in the internal power struggle. Post NaMo anointment, Rajnath has grown in confidence (as evident from election meetings, press conferences, interviews) and has increased visibility.

 NaMo’s Elevation: Casualty No. 1 – Advani Resigns, Only to take it back in 48 hours

Advani (aged 84) sulked post NaMo’s anointment and resigned from all party posts. After 50+ years in party and himself being a RSS pracharak, he suddenly realized that BJP is being run by RSS and is also interfering in its day to day affairs. This he felt was not good.

It was like a son fighting with his industrialist father in old films – “Papa aap mere liye parchun ki dukan kholo nahin to main ghar se bhaag jaunga”. In the last elections BJP projected Adavni as its PM candidate and lost. Please give space to young blood. But I don’t blame him, he sees 2014 as his last chance of becoming PM, even Manmohan Singh (MMS) is aged 81 and is PM of a country whose 60% population is in the working age group (29-35).

He threw in the towel without fighting Rajnath-NaMo camp. Anything can happen after results are out and he may emerge as consensus candidate (possibility remote). Better sense prevailed and he took back his resignation. Ummeed pe duniya kayam hai.

Prediction: Advani may not be fighting this time from Gandhinagar, and will look for a safe constituency in MP / Chhatisgarh.

NaMo’s Elevation: Casualty No. 2 – JD(U) breaks ties with BJP and commits Harakiri

JD(U), BJP’s long standing ally of 17 years, called an end to its alliance post NaMo’s anointment. Nitish Kumar and Sharad Yadav suddenly realized that BJP is not a secular but a communal party. They felt NaMo’s elevation would alienate its Muslim votebank.

However, the real reason is that with talks of emergence of a Third Front, Nitish and Sharad both feel that they can become PM. Nobody can stop them from day dreaming. My friends if Deve Gowda and Gujral could become PM with 20 seats why not Nitish / Sharad. Plus Nitish for some reason doesn’t like NaMo (perhaps jealousy).

Nitish and Sharad are worried about the 15% Muslim votes in Bihar. Is desh ka durbhagya hai ki koi 85% Hindu votes ke baare mein nahin sochta hai. They feel that they would get a major share of Muslim votes after the break up. They forget that this vote will be divided between JD(U), Congress and Lalu’s RJD. JD(U) can’t have a pre-poll alliance with Congress as it would kill their Third Front chances. Plus they would also loose BJP votes. All in all a bad arithmetic. They are bound to lose seats I can bet.

Sharad as confused as ever, even declared post break up that they could rejoin NDA if Advani is made leader. Advani a secular and NaMo a communal? Did he forget that it was Advani whose Rath Yatra for Ram Mandir brought BJP into national arena. Pure excuses, as they don’t have any reason. Yeh to public hai yeh sab janti hai! People of Bihar will teach them a lesson.

If Nitish has any self respect he should have resigned as CM and gone for a fresh mandate. People of Bihar had voted for NDA and not JD(U) alone. He would not as he would want to have malai for another 2.5 years.

Prediction: If NaMo does well, JD(U) will split post 2014 national elections. Sharad has a soft corner for BJP and he is not getting any malai while Nitish is having it all alone. This will be one of the key reasons for a split. If NaMo does badly, state BJP will split.  

NaMo Declared PM Candidate

BJP went ahead to take benefit of Modi’s popularity and named NaMo as its PM candidate. This has rejuvenated the party cadre and stumped the opposition parties. Allies Shive Sena and Akali Dal have also backed him. He is expected to hold a number of rallies all over th eocuntry to garner support.

NaMo – Difficult Road Ahead

NaMo has won the internal party struggle, however it is now time to perform. He will face opposition from Advani camp (Sushama Swaraj, Joshi, Ananth Kumar etc.) as also the Godhra riots will be in limelight once again. While he has charisma of a national leader and inspires party cadre / youth, his weakness is that he is CM of a small state (Gujarat sends only 26 MPs to Parliament, <5%).

Further he lacks rural support, his support base predominantly being through social media. While attending conclaves, industry summits provide visibility, they don’t fetch votes as people who attend these seminars don’t vote. Majority people who vote are from lower strata of society who I bet would not even know him outside of Gujarat. Remember in last elections he campaigned in 300 constituencies out of which BJP won only 25 (<9%).

However, this time it’s different. He has successfully become CM 3rd time trouncing Congress, his visibility and confidence levels are high, his model of development is being talked about (nationally / internationally) and there’s a lot of hype / hysteria around him. He has the backing of RSS and BJP President. Dissidents will fall in line as elections get closer as everybody would like to be in his good books. Will he perform or not. Only time will tell.

NDA (BJP + Shiv Sena + Akali Dal) Prospects Post Results in 2014

There are four possibilities for NDA post 2014 elections:

(i)            NDA gets majority (272+ seats): Nothing can stop NaMo from becoming PM, though admit that probability is remote.

(ii)           NDA gets 200-220 seats: Here again, NaMo could emerge as PM, with support from long time friend Jayalalitha (Amma) who is expected to get 30+ seats.

(iii)          NDA gets 180 seats and emerges as single largest alliance: Here, BJP would need support from Nitish, Mamta, Naveen Patnaik, Mayawati etc. and NaMo would not get a chance. However, since NaMo would play a key role in getting 180 seats, PM candidate would be from his camp (Jaitley, Rajnath). Rajnath could get NaMo to support him in a quid pro quo deal. Readers could say, how can Rajnath become PM. My friends if Deve Gowda, VP Singh, Chandrasekhar and Gujral could become PM why not Rajnath. At least he is legible to dream. Sushma could emerge as a consensus candidate here.

(iv)          NDA gets 150 seats: Here, BJP would sit in opposition and NaMo could continue as CM of Gujarat, go into oblivion or could resign as CM to take a national role to take a shot at 2019 elections.

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Key Political Parties – Congress


Background

Congress Party is among the oldest and most prominent parties in India. It has been in power for majority of the period after India gained Independence in 1947 and most people feel that “they know how to rule and run a country”.  It has produced great leaders of the likes of M. Gandhi. J.L. Nehru, S. Patel, S.C. Bose, M. Azad etc. However, sadly, the party has become the fiefdom of Nehru-Gandhi family (post independence) and is today the most undemocratic party in world’s largest democracy – India.

Nehru, Indira, Rajiv all of them have been PM of the country (been in power for 37 years, 56% of the period post Independence). The family has also suffered at the hands of extremists with both Indira and Rajiv killed by terrorists. Post Rajiv’s assassination in 1991 family lost control of the party as Sonia (Madam) was recuperating from her husband’s death and had two young children to take care of. She was not ostensibly interested in party politics.

After much persuasion from party (which was used to a Nehru-Gandhi scion at the helm of its affairs; exhibiting lack of leadership in a century old party), Madam became party president in 1998. The party won general elections in 2004 under Madam and she was tipped to become the PM. Finally she made MMS the PM (taking a moral high) and herself assumed the role of Chairperson of UPA, creating two power centers in Govt. Essentially having power without any accountability and responsibility. This I feel has been one of the major factors for poor performance of UPA I and II.

Now time has come to pass on the baton to another family member, Madam chose Rahul (Baba) over Priyanka (Baby), despite the fact that Baby is more popular and is considered the natural heir because of her similarities to grandma Indira.  However, the ladka won over the ladki (typical Indian mentality) and Baba is now tipped to be the successor.

Preparations for Next Lok Sabha Polls

In probably the last cabinet expansion before the Lok Sabha polls, MMS inducted four cabinet ministers with an avg age of 73 years, nearly 45 years over the average age of Indian population. With the latest inductions, Singh’s cabinet of 32 ministers has an average age of 67+.

This is in stark contrast to Baba’s persistent exhortation to the youth to join politics and his party. Not only this, a young and capable minister Ajay Maken was forced to resign and called back to party for working for elections. This signals that elections are more important for Congress than running the country. So don’t expect any governance for the next year or so. (But I didn’t see any governance for the past nine years as well!).

MMS also declared that he would be happy to see Baba step into his shoes. But Baba is eyeing Mamma’s (UPA Chairman’s) chair. Before NaMo’s anointment, Baba was tipped to be declared officially as election campaign head. However, Congress is shying from doing so now, because they don’t want an official NaMo vs Baba fight in elections 2014. Typical Congress attitude, if they win it will be attributed to “Baba’s leadership” and if they lose it will be attributed to “kamjor sangathan”.

Baba is however a smart campaigner and is unofficially leading the Congress. He is a silent crusader and does work without any fanfare unlike NaMo. He has already built his team, pulled off some people from government (Ajay Maken, CP Joshi) and working full throttle.

Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections

The Congress led government which is mirred in scams – coalgate, armsgate, commonwealth, 2G, railway scam (list is never ending) – faces elections in 2014. People are fed up with the government because of high persistent inflation and putting economy in a bad shape. Reforms have been hit and there has been no governance for the past 1 year, neither projected for the next 1 year.

The party to divert attention from scams and failure of the govt. has passed an ordinance on food security, upped the ante on cash distribution thru NREGA, direct cash transfer of subsidy etc. The party feels these schemes will help it sail thru the opposition.

There are 3 possibilities for Congress in the 2014 elections:

(i) Gets majority (272+ seats): Baba will carry on the family tradition and assume PM responsibility (though possibility remote).

(ii) Gets 180-220 seats and emerges as single largest party: Congress will form govt. with support of SP, BSP, RJD, DMK, JD(U) etc. Here Baba will chose not to become PM and assume responsibility of UPA Chairman (like Mamma). Power without responsibility is what they love. Mamma-son duo will put up a family loyalist as PM. Who can that be? MMS will be forced to retire. The family has already made the next strongest candidate Pranabda the President. Chidambaram is a strong candidate. However, the family doesn’t want smart intelligent (chalu) person as PM. They want a loyalist who would say yes to whatever they demand. My take would be Antony or Shinde. Antony has more chances.

(iii) Gets 150 seats: Congress will sit in opposition. Will make Antony / Shinde Leader of Opposition. Baba could take a back seat and enjoy life for 5 years. Would become active again near to 2019 elections.

 

DMK – Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections


Politicalbaaba

Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was formed in 1949 by C.N. Annadurai as a breakaway faction of the Justice Party. The party has strong presence in T. Nadu and Pondicherry. It has formed govt. in T. Nadu five times. Karunanidhi has been the undisputed leader since early 1970s and has been CM of the state five times. The party has 18 members in the current Lok Sabha.

The party is controlled by Karunanidhi family, his sons and daughter. His two sons – Stalin and Alagiri – are at loggerheads with each other for control of the party and bet party is united till Karuna is alive.

The party was in NDA govt. (1999-2004). Since 2004, it has been with UPA. Its minister A. Raja has become a household name due to the Rs. 176,000 crore 2G scam. His daughter Kanimozhi spent more than 6 months in jail in case related to…

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AIADMK – Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections


Politicalbaaba

All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was formed in 1972 by M.G. Ramachandran as a breakaway faction of the the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The party has strong presence in T. Nadu and Pondicherry. It has formed govt. in T. Nadu six times. Jayalalithaa has been the undisputed leader since early 1990s and has been CM of the state four times. The party has 9 members in the current Lok Sabha.

For the past 30 years or so, people of T. Nadu have followed a very predictable pattern and given chance to AIADMK / DMK (the two major state parties) on an alternative basis to form state govt.  

1984 – AIADMK, 1989 – DMK, 1991 – AIADMK, 1996 – DMK, 2001 – AIADMK, 2006 – DMK, 2011 – AIADMK

The party was earlier with NDA. However, the Vajpayee govt. in 1999 fell due to AIADMK withdrawing its support…

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Shiv Sena – Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections


Politicalbaaba

Shiv Sena was formed in 1966 by Balasaheb Thackeray. It is a major regional party in Maharashtra.  The party was in power in the state from 1995-99. It has been an ally of BJP since the 1970s.

The party is led by Uddhav, Balasaheb’s son. The party has been weakened over the years with major leaders like Narayan Rane, Chagan Bhujbal and more recently Raj Thackeray (Uddhav’s cousin) leaving the party. While Rane and Bhujbal went on and joined Congress and NCP respectively, Raj formed his own party Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) over differences with Uddhav.

The party currently has 11 members in the Lok Sabha. With an anti Congress wave in the country, the party is expected to improve its tally in next Lok Sabha elections.  The party has not like Akali Dal given its go ahead for declaration of NaMo as NDA’s PM candidate.

Possibilities in Next Lok…

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Biju Janata Dal (BJD) – Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections


Politicalbaaba

After his father Biju Patnaik’s death in 1997, Naveen Patnaik formed a regional party named BJD. The party is one of the offshoots of erstwhile united Janata Dal. The party has been an ally of BJP since then, alliance having been broken in 2009 before state assembly polls. Currently BJD has 14 members in the Lok Sabha. Naveen Patnaik has been the CM of Odisha / Orissa since 2000.

The party is a family fiefdom, difficult to recall name of any other prominent party member. Naveen babu has a clean image which has helped him win state elections two times in a row. Party broke alliance with BJP in 2009 after severe criticism of BJP’s alleged involvement in Kandhamal anti Christian riot during 2007. He came back with a resounding victory.

Many industrial projects in the state have been stuck (Posco, Vedanta etc.) and the state languishes in economic development…

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Trinamool Congress – Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections


Politicalbaaba

TMC led by Mamata, was founded in 1997, after separating from Congress on the issue of foreign origin of Sonia. With 19 Lok Sabha members, it is the sixth largest party in current Lok Sabha. The party has sizeable presence in W. Bengal and some N. Eastern states. TMC uprooted the 34-year rule of the Communist parties in West Bengal and Mamata became CM with a landslide victory in 2011.

The party is all about Mamata, Mamata and Mamata. She is a maverick leader and her popularity has taken a hit due to some controversial decisions. She has been both with the UPA and NDA (exhibiting that regional parties like hers have no ideology). She was a Railway minister in Vajpayee’s as well as MMS govt. She withdrew support to BJP govt. after Tehelka expose. In Sep. 2012, she withdrew support to the UPA due to govt. decision to allow…

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JD(U) – Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections


Politicalbaaba

JD(U) was formed in 2003 with the merger of Sharad Yadav faction of Janta
Dal, Samta Party and Lokshakti party. It has been running a government in Bihar along with BJP since 2005 with Nitish as CM. Recently in June the party split its alliance with BJP due to NaMo factor. The company also has decent presence in Jharkhand because of legacy issues. With 20 seats it is the fifth largest party in current Lok Sabha.

I have written a lot in earlier posts on the stupid reasons behind the split put forth by Nitish / Sharad and the rift among the party on account of this. The real reason is that both of them are day dreaming to become PM if Third Front comes to power.

Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha elections

(I) Party wins 30 seats and emerges as the largest party after Congress and BJP. Party nominee could become consensus PM (probability <1%)

(II) With votes…

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Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP): Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections


Politicalbaaba

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was founded in 1984 by Kanshi Ram. It was essentially a caste based party representing SC/ST/OBC and minorities. After Kanshi Ram’s illness in early 1990s, Mayawati emerged as his protégé and now has full control over the party

It is currently the third largest national party after Congress and BJP with a share of >10% votes in national elections. In 2009 Lok Sabaha elections BSP won 21 seats making it the 4th largest party in the House.

BSP has a strong presence in UP. Mayawati was CM of UP three times, once with SP support and twice with BJP support. In 2007, BSP got majority in UP assembly and she became CM for fourth time after she engineered a social coalition of bahujans, brahmins and other upper castes. In 2012 assembly elections, her party was defeated handsomely by Mulayam’s SP and she made her way…

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Samajwadi Party – Possibilities in Elections 2014


Politicalbaaba

Samajwadi Party (SP), founded in 1992, is an offshoot of erstwhile Janata Dal (JD). Janata Dal after VP Singh has split umpteen number of times and there is a JD from A to Z {JD(A), BJD, RJD, JD(S), JD(U) etc.). More on this later.

SP is a regional party with strong presence in UP. Currently it has 22 seats in Parliament making it the 3rd largest party behind Congress and BJP. In 2004, it recorded its best performance by winning 35 seats, however, it could not become part of govt. as UPA got majority on its own. Currently, though, day in and day out, its leaders slam Congress and its policies, it provides crucial outside support to govt.

Its a family fiefdom, Mulayam is the President of the party, his son Akhilesh is the CM, his daughter in law Dimple is a MP, his brother Ram Gopal Yadav is Leader…

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Left Front – Possibilities in 2014 Elections


Politicalbaaba

After discussing about Congress and BJP, today we take a look at the Left Front. The front is an alliance of communist political parties in India. Primarily consists of CPI and CPM.

The Front historically has a strong presence in three states namely W. Bengal, Tripiura and Kerala.  The Front ruled W.Bengal for 34 years from 1967-2011, after which it was defeated by Mamata’s Trinamool Congress. In Kerala, Congress and Left Front take turns to form a government once after every five years. In Tripura they have been in power for the past 20 years. They have smaller presence in almost all states winning 1/2 seats. 2004 was their best performance when they won 60 seats. The Front has also played a key role in non-Congress, non-BJP Governments at the center (Deve Gowda, IK Gujral, VP Singh).

With the emergence of strong regional parties – BSP, SP, TDP, JD(U) and…

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Congress Part III – Possibilities in 2014 Elections


Politicalbaaba

The Congress led government which is mirred in scams – coalgate, armsgate, commonwealth, 2G, railway scam (list is never ending) – faces elections in 2014. People are fed up with the government because of high persistent inflation and putting economy in a bad shape. Reforms have been hit and there has been no governance for the past 1 year, neither projected for the next 1 year.

The party to divert attention from scams and failure of the govt. has passed an ordinance on food security, upped the ante on cash distribution thru NREGA, direct cash transfer of subsidy etc. The party feels these schemes will help it sail thru the opposition.

There are 3 possibilities for Congress in the 2014 elections:

(i) Gets majority (272+ seats): Baba will carry on the family tradition and assume PM responsibility (though possibility remote).

(ii) Gets 180-220 seats and emerges as single largest party:…

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Congress Part II – Preparations for 2014 Elections


Politicalbaaba

In probably the last cabinet expansion before the Lok Sabha polls, MMS inducted four cabinet ministers with an avg age of 73 years, nearly 45 years over the average age of Indian population. With the latest inductions, Singh’s cabinet of 32 ministers has an average age of 67+.

This is in stark contrast to Baba’s persistent exhortation to the youth to join politics and his party. Not only this, a young and capable minister Ajay Maken was forced to resign and called back to party for working for elections. This signals that elections are more important for Congress than running the country. So don’t expect any governance for the next year or so. (But I didn’t see any governance for the past nine years as well!).

MMS also declared that he would be happy to see Baba step into his shoes. But Baba is eyeing Mamma’s (UPA Chairman’s) chair. Before…

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Congress – Part I (Background)


Politicalbaaba

Congress Party is among the oldest and most prominent parties in India. It has been in power for majority of the period after India gained Independence in 1947 and most people feel that “they know how to rule and run a country”.  It has produced great leaders of the likes of M. Gandhi. J.L. Nehru, S. Patel, S.C. Bose, M. Azad etc. However, sadly, the party has become the fiefdom of Nehru-Gandhi family (post independence) and is today the most undemocratic party in world’s largest democracy – India.

Nehru, Indira, Rajiv all of them have been PM of the country (been in power for 37 years, 56% of the period post Independence). The family has also suffered at the hands of extremists with both Indira and Rajiv killed by terrorists. Post Rajiv’s assassination in 1991 family lost control of the party as Sonia (Madam) was recuperating from her husband’s death…

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BJP – Part II


Politicalbaaba

Here we take a look at NaMo’s difficult path ahead and BJP’s prospects in 2014 elections (if not held earlier).

NaMo – Difficult Road Ahead

NaMo has won the internal party struggle, however it is now time to perform. He will face opposition from Advani camp (Sushama Swaraj, Joshi, Ananth Kumar etc.) as also the Godhra riots will be in limelight once again. While he has charisma of a national leader and inspires party cadre / youth, his weakness is that he is CM of a small state (Gujarat sends only 26 MPs to Parliament, <5%).

Further he lacks rural support, his support base predominantly being through social media. While attending conclaves, industry summits provide visibility, they don’t fetch votes as people who attend these seminars don’t vote. Majority people who vote are from lower strata of society who I bet would not even know him outside of Gujarat. Remember…

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BJP – Part I


Many readers have not been able to read all posts. Will re-blog over the next few days some older posts relating to “Key Political Parties”, their background and political fortunes in next Lok Sabha elections.

Politicalbaaba

In the 1st post on Elections 2014 we take a look at BJP (the leading opposition party), recent events, internal politics and prospects.

BJP Takes a Punt – Declares NaMo as Head of Election Campaign Committee

BJP has gambled big time by declaring NaMo, three times Chief Minister of Gujarat, as its Chief Election Campaigner. It was feared that this move could increase infighting in BJP, alienate Muslim voters as well as some NDA partners. There was a lot of resistance and debate internally before appointing him (after all BJP is a democratic party).

The fears appeared to be true when sulken BJP patriarch Advani resigned (only to take it back in 48 hours) and long time ally JD(U) broke ties with BJP.

Feel the decision to nominate NaMo is a bold one, however it’s also true that BJP had no choice and he is party’s best bet. Its like…

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DMK – Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections


Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was formed in 1949 by C.N. Annadurai as a breakaway faction of the Justice Party. The party has strong presence in T. Nadu and Pondicherry. It has formed govt. in T. Nadu five times. Karunanidhi has been the undisputed leader since early 1970s and has been CM of the state five times. The party has 18 members in the current Lok Sabha.

The party is controlled by Karunanidhi family, his sons and daughter. His two sons – Stalin and Alagiri – are at loggerheads with each other for control of the party and bet party is united till Karuna is alive.

The party was in NDA govt. (1999-2004). Since 2004, it has been with UPA. Its minister A. Raja has become a household name due to the Rs. 176,000 crore 2G scam. His daughter Kanimozhi spent more than 6 months in jail in case related to the scam. In 2011 state elections, DMK was trounced by AIADMK because of the corruption scandals.

Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections

(i) DMK sweeps the state, gets 30+ seats and emerges as single largest party after Congress and BJP. Will go with UPA (possibility nil).

(ii) DMK gets 20-30 seats. Will go with Congress (possibility nil).

(iii) DMK gets 0-10 seats (possibility highest). Will not play a key role in Govt.

AIADMK – Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections


All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was formed in 1972 by M.G. Ramachandran as a breakaway faction of the the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The party has strong presence in T. Nadu and Pondicherry. It has formed govt. in T. Nadu six times. Jayalalithaa has been the undisputed leader since early 1990s and has been CM of the state four times. The party has 9 members in the current Lok Sabha.

For the past 30 years or so, people of T. Nadu have followed a very predictable pattern and given chance to AIADMK / DMK (the two major state parties) on an alternative basis to form state govt.  

1984 – AIADMK, 1989 – DMK, 1991 – AIADMK, 1996 – DMK, 2001 – AIADMK, 2006 – DMK, 2011 – AIADMK

The party was earlier with NDA. However, the Vajpayee govt. in 1999 fell due to AIADMK withdrawing its support. Her party has not been in any govt. since then. In the next Lok Sabha elections, I feel she will go with NDA again.

Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections

(i)  AIADMK sweeps the state, gets 30+ seats and emerges as single largest party after Congress and BJP. She will resist the temptation to lead Third Front govt. because she is wary of its contradictions. She might support BJP to form next govt.

 (ii) AIADMK gets 20-30 seats and doesn’t emerge as the third largest party. She will go with NDA and play a key role in govt. formation.

(iii)                  AIADMK gets 10-20 seats. She will align with NDA.

 If NDA / BJP is not able to form a govt., she might even support a Third Front govt. from outside. She would never support the Congress.

Shiv Sena – Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections


Shiv Sena was formed in 1966 by Balasaheb Thackeray. It is a major regional party in Maharashtra.  The party was in power in the state from 1995-99. It has been an ally of BJP since the 1970s.

The party is led by Uddhav, Balasaheb’s son. The party has been weakened over the years with major leaders like Narayan Rane, Chagan Bhujbal and more recently Raj Thackeray (Uddhav’s cousin) leaving the party. While Rane and Bhujbal went on and joined Congress and NCP respectively, Raj formed his own party Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) over differences with Uddhav.

The party currently has 11 members in the Lok Sabha. With an anti Congress wave in the country, the party is expected to improve its tally in next Lok Sabha elections.  The party has not like Akali Dal given its go ahead for declaration of NaMo as NDA’s PM candidate.

Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections

Whatever number of sests it gets, it will stay with NDA. Feel it will get 15 seats and will play a key role in govt. formation if BJP comes to power.

Biju Janata Dal (BJD) – Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections


After his father Biju Patnaik’s death in 1997, Naveen Patnaik formed a regional party named BJD. The party is one of the offshoots of erstwhile united Janata Dal. The party has been an ally of BJP since then, alliance having been broken in 2009 before state assembly polls. Currently BJD has 14 members in the Lok Sabha. Naveen Patnaik has been the CM of Odisha / Orissa since 2000.

The party is a family fiefdom, difficult to recall name of any other prominent party member. Naveen babu has a clean image which has helped him win state elections two times in a row. Party broke alliance with BJP in 2009 after severe criticism of BJP’s alleged involvement in Kandhamal anti Christian riot during 2007. He came back with a resounding victory.

Many industrial projects in the state have been stuck (Posco, Vedanta etc.) and the state languishes in economic development. Of late, the party has been advocating to align with the Left Front and has categorically denied supporting NaMo as PM.

Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections

(i)                  Party wins 15 seats. Could support a Third Front govt. depending upon the deal offered. He becoming PM is out of question.

 (ii)                Party wins 5-10 seats. Could support BJP led govt., provided NaMo is not made PM. CMs of different parties will not support him. Jealousy!

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