Who Will Form the next Govt (Based on Pre Poll Projections)?

Lok Sabha 2014 elections is expected to throw a hung house with BJP led NDA leading the pack with 245 seats, followed by Congress led UPA at 104 seats. Others (including Left & regional parties) are expected to bag 190 odd seats as per Politicalbaaba projections. They will hold the keys to govt. formation at the center.

So the million dollar question is who will form the govt. in May 2014?

I. BJP led NDA (probability 90%)

NDA under Modi is expected to bag 245 seats. Including Telugu Desam Party with which it is expected to have a pre-poll alliance, NDA would reach 255.  17 short of majority. Being the single largest formation President of India will invite Modi to form govt. Jealousy of peer Chief Ministers from AIADMK / Biju Janata Dal / Trinamool Congress / JDU makes it a bit tricky for Modi. Plus Naveen / Mamata / Nitish have openly said that they will not align with BJP. Jaya has not said something of that sort but she has PM ambitions and can’t be relied upon.

Parties like Mulayam (12), Lalu (11), Left Front (31), AIADMK (25), Naveen Patnaik (15) would not support Modi (high probability).  Mayawati could also decide not to support because this time main fight in Uttar Pradesh is between BJP and BSP. Kejri Baba (11) would also not support BJP.

Since gap is small, smaller parties like MNS and TRS would bail out NDA. Jagan Reddy of YSR Congress could provide outside support. This would help NDA touch the magical figure. Jagan will refrain from joining govt. as TDP (their opponent) is in the govt.

Current UPA allies like Shibu Soren’s JMM and Ajit Singh’s RLD could also turn out to be potential allies and they can rock UPA’s boat to join NDA (4 seats). JMM’s govt. is dependent upon Congress in Jharkhand, even if Congress withdraws support BJP would come in and ensure that it runs smoothly. This takes up the overall tally to 290 seats.

NDA (BJP + S. Sena + Akali Dal + MDMK + LJP + DMDK + PMK ) 230
Telugu Desam Party 10
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena 3
Indian National Lok Dal 2
Telangana Rashtra Samiti 8
Others / Independents 23
Total 276
Outside Support
YSR Congress 14
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha 3
Rashtriya Lok Dal 1
Total 294

2. Third Front (probability 5%)

UPA is expected to bag 104 seats and will not be in a position to form govt. It won’t want to form govt. as well. But to stop Modi at any cost it will try to prop together a Third Front govt. With regional parties expected to bag 190 seats, there will still be a gap of 60 seats.

This govt. can’t be formed with Mamata and Mayawati’s support. Mayawati would ensure Mulayam and Jaya won’t become PM (ladies rivalry). Mamata would ensure Maya is not PM. So PM could be a consensus champu candidate either from Left Front / AIADMK / Trinamool Congress.

1996 like experiment with Gowda / Gujral as PM. This will be a khichdi govt. , highly unstable. Congress would provide outside support and will act as the glue which will hold this coalition together till it wants. Won’t last long though, however, hard they try.

Parties like Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, TDP and DMK won’t join this alliance at any cost. It is noted that this formation will get opportunity only after BJP is unable to prove majority in Lok Sabha.

Left Front 31
AIADMK 25
Biju Janata Dal 16
Samajwadi Party 12
Janata Dal Secular 1
Janata Dal United 8
Assam Gana Parishad 2
Bahujan Samaj Party 18
Aam Aadmi Party 11
YSR Congress 14
Telangana Rashtriya Samiti 8
Others / Independents 23
Trinamool Congress 25
Total 194
Outside Support
UPA 112
Total 306

3. Re-elections (probability 5%)

If BJP is unable to prove majority (principal reason could be that Modi’s name is not acceptable to allies) and Left Front can’t be cobbled together (because of its inherent contradictions) then stage will be re-set for re-elections. Similar situation like in 1998 when Vajpayee was unable to prove majority by 1 vote leading to re-elections.

So guys please go out and vote and give a clear mandate. We need a strong govt. to tide over the times currently facing our country and economy.

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