All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was formed in 1972 by M.G. Ramachandran as a breakaway faction of the the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The party has strong presence in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry. Tamil Nadu is an important state accounting for 39 Lok Sabha seats (7% of Lok Sabha). It has formed govt. in T. Nadu six times. Jayalalithaa (fondly called as Amma) has been the undisputed leader of the party since early 1990s and has been CM of the state four times. The party has 9 members in the current Lok Sabha.
For the past 30 years or so, people of T. Nadu have followed a very predictable pattern and given chance to AIADMK / DMK (the two major state parties) on an alternative basis to form state govt.
1984 – AIADMK, 1989 – DMK, 1991 – AIADMK, 1996 – DMK, 2001 – AIADMK, 2006 – DMK, 2011 – AIADMK
The party was earlier with NDA. However, the Vajpayee govt. in 1999 fell due to AIADMK withdrawing its support. Her party has not been in any Central govt. since then.
The party has joined Third Front and is tying up with Communist Party of India (CPI) for Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu. CPI has pledged support to her for Prime Ministerial candidate.
Historical Performance of AIADMK in Tamil Nadu (Lok Sabha)
|% of T.N. Seats||43.6%||5.1%||30.8%||28.2%||28.2%||0.0%||46.2%||25.6%||0.0%||23.1%|
The state elections trend is not visible in Lok Sabha though. After 1998 in each successive election it has got less seats than it’s rival DMK.
Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections
Corruption cases against DMK ministers (2G scam), imminent split in party with Karunanidhi suspending his son Azhagiri, DMK’s refusal to ally with Congress all point to a good performance from AIADMK in this Lok Sabha polls. Surveys predicting 25-35 seats. Politicalbaaba projects 25 seats for AIADMK.
(i) In case BJP is not in a position to form govt., she might emerge as PM candidate of Third Front with outside support of Congress & Left parties, as AIADMK is likley to emerge as the 3rd largest party in Lok Sabha. (probability low).
(ii) In case BJP is within a striking distance of forming govt. and needs allies. AIADMK may or may not support NDA, depending upon situation and their deal with BJP. Amma is very unpredictable.