DMK

Background

Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was formed in 1949 by C.N. Annadurai as a breakaway faction of the Justice Party. The party has strong presence in T. Nadu and Pondicherry. It has formed govt. in T. Nadu five times. Karunanidhi has been the undisputed leader since early 1970s and has been CM of the state five times. The party has 18 members in the current Lok Sabha.

The party is controlled by Karunanidhi family, his sons and daughter. His two sons – Stalin and Alagiri – are at loggerheads with each other for control of the party, and Alagiri has been recently suspended. The party is united till Karuna is alive, post which there could be big split.

For the past 30 years or so, people of T. Nadu have followed a very predictable pattern and given chance to AIADMK / DMK (the two major state parties) on an alternative basis to form state govt.

1984 – AIADMK, 1989 – DMK, 1991 – AIADMK, 1996 – DMK, 2001 – AIADMK, 2006 – DMK, 2011 – AIADMK

The party was in NDA govt. (1999-2004). Since 2004, it has been with UPA. Its minister A. Raja has become a household name due to the Rs. 176,000 crore 2G scam. His daughter Kanimozhi spent more than 6 months in jail in case related to the scam. In 2011 state elections, DMK was trounced by AIADMK because of the corruption scandals.

The party has said that it would not align with Congress in coming Lok Sabha polls as it is hurt by the treatment meted out to its ministers. Party claims in 2G scam, everything was done with consent of Prime Minister.

Election Symbol

Historical Performance in T. Nadu (Lok Sabha)

1962 1967 1971 1977 1980 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009
Seats Won 7 25 23 2 16 2 0 0 17 5 12 16 18
% of T.N. Seats 17.1% 64.1% 59.0% 5.1% 41.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 43.6% 12.8% 30.8% 41.0% 46.2%

Interestingly the state assembly trend is not visible in Lok Sabha. DMK has been in the last three govts. at the center and that has helped. It has finished as the top party in the last three polls. But law of averages seem to be catching up in 2014.

Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections

Polls predict a complete washout for DMK in next Lok Sabha (5-15 seats). Politicalbaaba projects 6 seats for DMK. Allegations of corruption against its ministers, no alliance with Congress and strong Jayalalitha are the key reasons. The company can’t go with Third Front as Jayalalitha is expected to lead the same. In a surprise move DMK could provide support to BJP if it needs allies. BJP would however desist from giving any ministries to DMK considering the background. So why will DMK support? For some reprieve from CBI.

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