Tamil Nadu

For the past 30 years or so, people of T. Nadu have followed a very predictable pattern and given chance to AIADMK / DMK (the two major state parties) on an alternative basis to form state govt.  The same though has not been visible in the Lok Sabha elections. DMK was with BJP in 1999, thereafter with Congress.  Offshoots of DMK and AIADMK like MDMK, DMDK and PMK also have significant presence

DMK has called off its alliance with Congress. BJP was wooing Jaya but she has PM ambitions. Left provided support to her as PM candidate. In a few days she threw out Left Parties of the alliance in the state. It’s a four cornered contest. AIADMK DMK Congress NDA. BJP has formed a grand alliance including MDMK, DMDK, and PMK.

Parties 1952 1957 1962 1967 1971 1977 1980 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009
Congress 35 31 31 3 9 14 20 25 27 28 0 0 2 10 8
AIADMK 0 0 0 0 0 17 2 12 11 11 0 18 10 0 9
DMK 0 0 7 25 23 2 16 2 0 0 17 5 12 16 18
BJP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 0
TMC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0
Others 40 10 3 11 7 6 1 0 1 0 2 13 11 13 4
Total 75 41 41 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39

 Source: Statistical Reports, Election Commission of India

Congress is dead in the state. Chidu not fighting, got ticket for his son. DMK plagued by infighting and has recently suspended Karuna’s son Alagiri. DMK has been giving contradictory statements to keep all options open post polls. NDA could make inroads. PB estimates 25 seats for AIADMK, 8 seats for NDA and 6 seats for DMK.

Post polls jaya might support NDA. That’s why Modi has not openly criticised her.

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