Politicalbaaba

Indian Politics & Elections Blog

West Bengal

1. Background

West Bengal sends 42 MPs to Lok Sabha and is a key state for govt. formation at the center. WB has been the fiefdom of the Left Front for ages. This was broken by the charismatic Mamata Banerjee. She won with absolute majority in the state polls in May 2011. She won in an alliance with Congress and did a Janata Dal (United) on Congress, withdrew support to UPA in Sep. 2012.

Her maverick ways has dented her popularity a bit in urban areas but in rural areas she still holds the sway as evidenced by her strong performance in Panchayat polls recently.

Congress is weak, it’s tallest leader of the state Pranabda has retired from politics as he is now President. BJP historically has been weak though it’s founder Shyama Prasad Mookerji was a Bengali.

2. Historical Results

The state has been a CPM bastion from 1970’s till 2004. Since 2009, Trianmool Congress has forged ahead of the Left parties.

Parties 1952 1957 1962 1967 1971 1977 1980 1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004 2009
Congress 24 23 22 14 13 3 4 16 4 5 9 1 3 6 6
Trinamool Congress 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 8 1 19
Left Front 5 6 9 12 23 20 34 23 33 33 29 29 26 29 15
BJP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1
Bhartiya Lok Dal 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Others 10 7 5 14 4 4 4 3 5 4 4 4 3 6 1
Total 39 36 36 40 40 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42

Source: Statistical Reports, Election Commission of India

3. Demographics of State

Hindus comprise of 72.5% and Muslims 25% of population.

4. 2009 Lok Sabha Elections – Close Finish

7 seats out of 42 were decided on a margin of less than 5%.

5. Projections for 2014

Politicalbaaba estimates Mamata to bag 25 seats, while Left 15. Congress and BJP would get 1 seat each. Lot of artists in the fray, Moon Moon Sen, Bappi Lahiri, Babul Supriyo, PC Sarkar etc. Lets see what their fate is…

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