AAP wins Bawana By-Poll, makes a comeback

After drubbing in MCD polls, pollsters and analysts wrote at length about AAP’s obituary. AAP is finished. In 2020 polls, BJP will make a comeback. In an article in FirstPost, I had emphasized, that we need to wait till 2020 before pronouncing any verdict.

In a high pitched battle, AAP won by-Polls for Bawana convincingly with a margin of 23,952 votes. The elections were necessitated by the resignation of Ved Parkash, AAP MLA, who was poached by BJP. People of the constituency taught Ved a lesson. BJP finished 2nd while Congress 3rd. It may be a good idea for BJP & Congress to form an alliance to defeat AAP. Else it looks difficult. People though voted for the good work done by AAP in education and health sectors.

BJP is now downplaying the results. If they had won, they would have been all over the town, trumpeting AAP’s demise. People of the constituency reposed faith in Kejriwal leadership. They out rightly rejected BJP’s jod-tod politics. While AAP contested on the development plank, BJP bolstered by MCD victory despite poor record, thought Delhi would vote again on Modi factor.

Highlights & Interesting Facts

– No. of voters in constituency is 2.94 lakhs, highest in the state of Delhi.
– Voting % was down from 62% in assembly polls to 44.8% due to loss of interest and happens in any by-poll.
– AAP candidate got 59,886 votes, BJP 35,934 votes and INC 31,919.
– While AAP (-13%) and BJP (-4%) lost vote shares, Congress gained (+16%) at the expense of both.
– AAP and Congress have overlapping vote shares and that’s why this has happened. No alarming bells for AAP yet.
– BJP lost vote share despite poaching AAP MLA Ved Parkash.
– This proves people of Delhi voted for Kejriwal & AAP, and not candidates. So he does enjoy Modi cult at least in Delhi.
– Congress & BJP candidates’ votes together were higher than AAP.
It’s personal between Modi-Shah & Kejriwal

Modi – Shah have a personal grudge against Kejriwal. After all he was the first one to stop BJP juggernaut in 2015. BJP has been trying to destabilize AAP govt. since its formation. From cases against AAP MLAs to EC compliant on office of profit to CBI raids to Lieutenant Governor’s overarching role, it is pretty clear.

After MCD elections, BJP tried its best to split AAP, backing Kumar Vishwas, who claimed backing of 35+ MLAs. But it didn’t work out as he was placated by Kejriwal. Then it backed Kapil Mishra who made scintillating claims of Kejriwal taking bribe of Rs. 2 crores. The saam-daam-dand-bhed policy of BJP didn’t work. It hoped it could do an Arunachal here.

It’s surprising that while BJP has been alleging most AAP MLAs have criminal records / are law breakers, it accepted an AAP MLA in its fold. The fact that it chose an AAP candidate to contest means it didn’t have candidates for the Bawana by-poll.

Its high time Election Commission looks into this by-elections thing after resignation of an MLA. A fixed tenure should be applicable in case of an MLA. If he / she resigns before term, then the person should not be allowed to contest again. BJP effectively thrust an election on voters of Delhi and its cost was borne by taxpayers like us.

AAP learnt from its mistakes

After loss in MCD polls, AAP went back to the drawing board and formulated a new strategy. Under this Kejriwal and company are keeping a low profile and focusing on development in Delhi. They have stopped the regular rants against Modi and BJP govt. at the center. They have realized they have been voted to govern and not do theatrics. Party managed to activate the volunteer network and its results are visible in Bawana, which has a sizeable Jat and Gujjar population.

To conclude, with BJP looking strong to win the 2019 polls and Congress losing state after state, there is a great need felt nationally for a strong opposition. The original AAP (of 2013 & 2015) can fill this void if it treads cautiously and delivers on governance in Delhi. It needs to also play the role of a responsible opposition in Punjab. It needs to go back to its roots and engage with aam aadmi on various issues which was its USP. The people of Bawana have rejected the ‘power at any cost’ politics of BJP. A section of voters feel BJP is the new Congress in many ways after Manipur and Goa. Kejriwal continues to be a troublemaker for Modi and Shah plans.

Delhi is asking: Can AAP bounce back?

My article in Hindustan Times

http://www.hindustantimes.com/comment/indiapoliticswatch/delhi-is-asking-can-aap-bounce-back/article1-1223666.aspx

Has Kejriwal failed the people of Delhi by resigning & not completing term?

Why is Kejriwal ready to bite the bullet & form govt. in Delhi?

Background

Governor called  the single largest party BJP to form govt. in Delhi. BJP declined saying it didn’t have the numbers. Congress in the meanwhile sent an unconditional letter of support for Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to Governor. Mr. Jung called Kejriwal to discuss about govt. formation. Kejriwal requested for 10 days time. He said that AAP has written to both Congress & BJP asking for response on 18 questions. This was discussed in earlier post “Who will form the govt. in Delhi”.  https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/12/14/who-will-form-the-govt-in-delhi-bjp-aap-or-re-elections/

While BJP didn’t reply to the letter, Congress replied by saying that 16 of 18 questions are administrative in nature and support is never unconditional. BJP queered the pitch by blaming AAP of running away from responsibility of forming govt. This is when Kejriwal sprung another surprise. He said that AAP will conduct a referendum in Delhi and outside and ask people whether they wanted it to form govt. or not? Sms campaigns, surveys, letters, emails were sent to lakhs of people and Kejriwal is expected to take a call today.

Most probably he is going to form the govt. and achieve his ambition of becoming CM. Overwhelming majority is for forming the govt. according to media reports.

Some important issues need to be understood in detail in this chain of events.

1. Why did Kejriwal change his mind and is ready to take support from corrupt Congress?

AAP is divided on forming govt. without numbers.

Logic For Govt. Formation: Mandate is anti-Congress. If AAP doesn’t form govt., it will be seen as running away from responsibility. Good performance in first three months will enhance its chances in Lok Sabha elections. Public will be spared from re-election expenditure.

Logic Against Govt. Formation: How can party take help of Congress against which it fought tooth and nail in the elections? Plus Congress has a dubious history of propping up minority governments and pulling them down. If re-elections happen AAP will anyways get majority.

In between all this, Parliament passed the Lokpal Bill. Anna supported this bill while AAP called it Jokepal. A lot of AAP supporters are actually India Against Corruption movement sympathizers. Passage of Lokpal was one of the important reasons why AAP was formed. Kejriwal fears that his support base could dwindle post this event and there is no guarantee that AAP will get majority if re-elections happen. Plus if re-elections happen along with Lok Sabha, Modi wave could tilt Delhi voters in favour of BJP. Future is uncertain! Mauke pe chauka nahin chakka maar lo. Further even if his govt. fails he always has the Congress to blame. This could also get AAP some sympathy. So a win-win situation, nothing to lose.

2. Why is Congress which is being abused day in & out by AAP ready to support AAP?

AAP is daily abusing Congress and its leaders. Kejriwal humiliated Congress CM Shiela Dixit by 20k+ votes. Despite this Congress is willingly ready to support AAP. The local leadership & MLAs are dead against this. Sonia & Rahul are in favour of putting up a AAP government. This they feel will improve image among people that Congress is supporting a honest / clean govt. Plus it will make the state elections score BJP 3 : Congress 1. This is much better than BJP 4: Congress 0. Feel this is the biggest reason.

3. Why is BJP which challenged AAP to form govt. suddenly accusing it of betraying voters?

BJP was playing a bluff game with AAP and daring it to form govt. They were sure that AAP would never take support of Congress and form govt. This way BJP could put the blame on AAP for re-election.  But Kejriwal is a smart politician, he dwarfed BJP’s bluff and is now ready to form govt. Sour grapes for BJP. It is now crying and accusing AAP of flip-flop and going back on its words for taking support of Congress. BJP should not be short sighted as it might win if re-elections happen. Depends on how AAP govt. performs.

BJP and others criticizing AAP should know that AAP is a political party. Flip flops and going back on promises is what every party has done in the past. So AAP is just continuing with the tradition. AAP is answerable only to its voters as to why its taking this step and not BJP.

4. How can sms campaign decide whether govt. should be formed? AAP leadership is indecisive!

Questions are being raised about the referendum. Technically AAP should be asking only people who voted for AAP the question whether it should form govt. or not? Others didn’t vote for AAP. Correct to some extent but not practical. Lot of people didn’t vote for AAP because they thought it was a game spolier and not a contender. Plus there is no way to fidn out who voted for AAP, secret voting in India.

AAP leadership is indecisive and how will they run govt.? Sms campaigns cannot decide such serious issues. Why not? AAP has caught the imagination of people because it has given power in their hands. People feel included in decision making on issues which are of importance to their lives. Voters have never been given so much importance in history of India by any political party. Leaders are seen only during elections and then they disaapear. Here is a party which not only is valuing importance of opinion of its supporters but also those who might not have voted for it.

Only time will tell whether AAP forms the govt. (there could be further surprises). How does it perform? Is it able to fulfil promises or not? Request your comments.

NaMo rips apart MMS and RaGa in Delhi Rally

Politicalbaaba

BJP organized a grand rally at Delhi of its PM designate NaMo wrt its campaign for upcoming state elections. Sheila Dixit of Congress has been the CM for the past 15 years and has done reasonably good work before her image took a beating in Commonwealth Games scam. Recent law and order problems, increase in rape cases and power woes have added to Congress problems. Plus Aam Aadmi Party of Arvind Kejriwal is testing political waters from Delhi. As Delhi was the place where Anna Hazare movement took place and found lot of support, AAP is also likely to make a dent in Congress votes.

All was going on well for BJP, anti incumbency against state govt., strong anti incumbency against Congress central govt., but lack of strong leadership and AAP entry started to spoil its chances. There is a lot of infighting among BJP in the state which is…

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