All India Pre Poll Projections

State / UT Seats UPA NDA Others SP BSP JDU Left  BJD AIADMK YSR TDP AAP TRS TMC
Arunachal Pradesh 2 1 1
Assam 14 8 4 2
Bihar 40 12 20 0 8
Jharkhand 14 3 9 2
Goa 2 0 2
Gujarat 26 5 21
Haryana 10 1 6 1 2
Himachal Pradesh 4 1 3
Jammu & Kashmir 6 3 1 2
Karnataka 28 11 14 2 1
Kerala 20 5 1 1 13
Madhya Pradesh 29 6 23
Chattisgarh 11 3 8
Maharashtra 48 14 28 4 2
Manipur 2 2 0
Meghalaya 2 2 0
Mizoram 1 1 0
Nagaland 1 1 0
Orissa 21 3 2 16
Punjab 13 6 7
Rajasthan 25 5 20
Sikkim 1 1 0
Seemandhra 25 0 0 1 14 10
Tamil Nadu 39 0 8 6 25
Telangana 17 5 3 1 8
Tripura 2 0 0 2
UP 80 9 38 2 12 18 1
Uttarakhand 5 1 4
West Bengal 42 1 1 15 25
Andaman 1 0 1
Daman & Diu 1 0 1
Dadra&Nagar 1 0 1
Delhi 7 0 3 4
Pondicherry 1 1 0
Lakshadweep 1 1 0
Chandigarh 1 0 0 1
Total 543 112 230 24 12 18 8 30 16 25 14 10 11 8 25
In 2009  543 225 131 50 22 21 22 22 14 9 0 6 0 2 19

UPA = Congress + NCP + JMM + RLD + NC + RJD

NDA = BJP + Shiv Sena + Akali Dal + LJP + MDMK + DMDK + PMK

 

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16 thoughts on “All India Pre Poll Projections

    1. @Mihir thanks. The projections were made before announcement of NaMo as PM candidate. However, I factored in the same as it was almost a certainty. There is a 5-10% margin of error. However, we could discuss further if you point out specific states where you feel BJP wont get the seats projected.

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      1. In Punjab akalis r are lossing. After Capt. Amrinder Singh has come forward, the position has become vis-a-vis.

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      2. Punjab is interesting and situation could be bad for BJP. I agree. Modi wave could negate some of this. In Punjab, NDA facing anti incumbency because of 2nd term of Akalis.

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  1. AAP is not even in your list of political parties …why??? With AAP confirming they will run in LokSabha elections, how do you think the situation would change?

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    1. Thanks Arati. The projections were made sometime in Sep. and needs updation to take into account AAP effect. Will be done sometime in Jan. next year. While AAP has done well in Delhi, this will not translate the same way in Lok Sabha. They might get 5-10 seats mostly metros.

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    1. Fair point. Projections a bit old carried out in Sep. However, UP is a difficult state. 4 cornered contest makes it even difficult to predict. UP is caste based politics. While NaMo wave will better their position from 10 to 25 further improvement needs more work.

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