Bihar Elections: Phase 3 Post Poll Update

5 Key Messages
1. Elections are damn close, it will go down to each vote in the end.
2. No clear visible wave on the ground.
3. Exit polls will not give a clear picture until and unless sample taken from each booth. A single booth can determine the results.
4. Youth, women & undecided voters to decide the winner.
5. Rebels won’t win many seats but capable of sinking the ship of either alliance in many seats.

Phase 3 Post Poll Update
Phase 3 of the fiercely fought Bihar elections concluded yesterday. Polls were held on 50 seats covering six districts of Bhojpur, Buxar, Nalanda, Patna, Vaishali and Saran. Janata alliance (Maha Gathbandhan) won 30 of these seats in 2010 (albeit fighting separately) while NDA won 20. In LS polls in 2014, Janata alliance was leading in 28 seats while NDA in 22.

It’s a very closely fought elections with no super turnout and no clear wave on ground. Only the two alliances see a wave with both claiming to have got unbeatable leads till Phase 3 (90+ seats). Only one of them can be correct not both as elections to only 131 seats have taken place.

In Phase 3, Gathbandhan is facing serious rebels / cross over candidates in 20 / 50 seats (that’s huge). NDA faced rebels in 4 seats. In 28 of the seats Janata alliance was leading in LS polls, it was facing rebellion in half of these seats. In 11 of the seats Janata alliance was leading comfortably in LS polls (>10% vote share), here again, it was facing rebels in 5 of these seats. In 1 of the seats, though no official rebel, NDA is facing serious dissidence (Barhampur). This could be the decider in this phase and seems to have saved the day for NDA.

Prominent rebels / cross over candidates which are causing serious head ache for Janata alliance candidates are – Gita Pandey (Tarari), Anant Singh (Mokama), Chhotelal Rai (Parsa), Dr. Sunil Kushwaha (Biharsharif), Satish Kr Yadav (Raghopur), Brishan Patel (Vaishali), Gyanendra Kr. Singh (Barh), Ravindra Rai (Mahua), Dr. Daud Ali (Dumraon).

Based on ground feedback and research, NDA is expected to do well in Buxar, Bhojpur, Vaishali and urban parts of Patna district. Gathbandhan is expected to do well in Nalanda (Nitish), Saran (Lalu) and rural (Lalu).

While twitter and social media is agog with NDA sweep with 40+ seats in this phase, this may not be the actual case. NDA is leading in this phase clearly like Phase 2, but by how much is a point of contention which will be known only on 8th Nov. 2015.

Politicalbaaba (PB) predicts 27-33 seats for NDA and 16-22 seats for Janata alliance as detailed in table below. An independent is expected to win 1 seat. People would like to know about the fate of Lalu’s two sons. They are both engaged in a tough battle with sitting MLAs. The more firebrand younger son expected to win. The elder son is expected to lose.

Phase 1-3 Combined Scene

Based on all the three phases together, NDA is expected to have taken a slight lead from Janata alliance (9 seats). This will be further strengthened in Phase IV where it is expected to win 38 / 55 seats extending the lead to 26 seats. In Phase 5, Janata alliance has to then chase down this lead and keep NDA below 15 seats to win the match. A close nail biting finish on the cards….

*Worst Case & Best Case from NDA point of view.