• BJP was leading in 132 assembly segments in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, comfortable majority out of 224 seats.
  • Congress was leading in 77 and JDS in 15.
  • While BJP bagged 43.4% vote share, INC was not far behind with 41.2% and JDS a distant third with 11.1%.
  • Lok Sabha elections is contested on nation level issues while state elections on local issues.
  • BJP on an average has received 24% less vote share in subsequent state elections held after 2014 Lok Sabha. (3 states where its vote share increased has been excluded from analysis).
  • This means it could end up with 35% vote share in 2018 state elections.
  • 42% people in the state would not have voted for BJP had Modi not been the PM candidate. This implies Modi factor was 18.2% and adjusted BJP vote share 25.2%.
  • Modi factor will also be visible during state elections, so the latter is not the correct way to arrive at estimated vote share.
  • BJP performance Lok Sabha vs Subsequent State Elections

bjpvote share1

 

Source: www.indiavotes.com, http://www.politicalbaba.com

  • INC on an average has received 15% less vote share in subsequent state elections held after 2014 Lok Sabha. (6 states where its vote share increased has been excluded from analysis).
  • This means it could end up with 35% vote share in 2018 state elections.
  • A neck and neck situation.
  • Congress performance Lok Sabha vs Subsequent State Elections

bjpvotehsare2.png

         Source: www.indiavotes.com, http://www.politicalbaba.com

 

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