We have completed the projections for two principal coalitions UPA (led by Congress) and NDA (led by BJP). We have also seen how the new entrant Aam Aadmi Party is expected to fair (though projections were carried out before Somnath Bharti episode), and have been adjusted downward for the same.  Link of articles below:

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/01/14/2014-lok-sabha-projections-how-many-seats-will-aaam-aaadmi-party-win/

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/01/16/2014-lok-sabha-projections-how-many-seats-will-bjp-win/

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/2014-lok-sabha-projections-how-many-seats-will-congress-get/

Thanks to readers and followers for the great response on the above 3 projections (all three articles are amongst the top in their category in google search engine).

Today we will take a look at Politicalbaba’s All India Projections. NDA is expected to be the leader with 220 seats, UPA lagging way behind at 100 seats (including Lalu’s RJD 112). AAP is expected to bag 11 seats (down from 15 projected earlier). Others with 200 seats will be the key to govt. formation at the center. Prominent among them are:

1) Left Front – Left Front is expected to be the third largest group / alliance of parties with 31 seats (+9). In its bastion of Kerala it is expected to bounce back with 14 seats while in W.Bengal it would retain its tally of 15 seats despite Mamata Banerjee wave. Kerala votes for Congress and Let Front every alternate election and this time it is its chance.

2) AIADMK – Jayalalitha’s party is expected to bag 27 seats (+18). DMK-Congress break up plus fissures in party with suspension of Azahgiri, will hit DMK hard. Alleged involvement of Karuna’s daughter Kanimozhi and relative Dayanidhi Maran in 2G scam have dented DMK’s prospects. Traditionally, voters in T.Nadu alternate between AIADMK and DMK every elections and going by this trend as well, this time its chance of AIADMK.

3) Trinamool Congress – Mamata is expected to bag 25 seats (+6). Though it has broken its alliance with Congress, it is expected to get most of the seats won by Congress last time (6). Left Front is not in a position to dislodge Mamata though it would retain its seats bagged last time. Huge rally today in Kolkata is testimony of Didi’s popularity.

4) Bahujan Samaj Party – Maya is likley to hold onto its votebank and seat share in Uttar Pradesh (20 seats). Despite Modi wave in the Hindi heartland, she is expected to retain her tally as Mulayam’s Samajwadi Party has weakened after Muzffarnagar riots and Congress is suffering from strong anti-incumbency.

5) Biju Janata Dal – Naveen Patnaik is expected to hold onto its tally (15 seats). Lack of effective state level leadership of BJP and Congress plus clean image of Naveen babu will clinch the deal in its favour.

6) YSR Congress – Jagan Reddy’s party is expected to make its debut with 14 seats riding on the anti-Telangana wave in Seemandhra. Congress is in shambles there with state leadership opposing Telangana. Until and unless Telangana Rashtriya Samiti either merges with Congress or enters into an electoral tie-up, Congress is doomed in the state (-28 seats).

7) Samajwadi Party – Mulayam’s dream of becoming a PM will remain a dream. Party will be lucky to get 14 seats (-8). Muzaffarnagar riots have alienated Muslim votebank. Plus Lodh community’s Kalyan Singh is back with BJP. Modi wave has gripped the state. The damage will not be significant though as Yadavs will vote for him no matter what. Plus minority community could vote tactically in some constituencies to defeat BJP candidates.

8) Aam Aadmi Party – The newbie could bag 11 seats (7 in the National Capital Region) of Delhi and Haryana. Recent events have dented its image so its seats have been downgraded from earlier 15 to 11.

9) Telugu Desam Party – Chandrababu Naidu’s party is expected to bag 10 seats (+4). It would be competing with Jagan’s party for seats in Seemandhra. A tie-up with BJP could improve position further. The hitch is BJP supports Telangana while TDP opposes it.

10) Rashtriya Janata Dal – Lalu could bag 10 seats (+6). Break-up of BJP-JDU alliance will help him to make a comeback. His corruption case will not be a big issue in Bihar. Alliance with Congress will help RJD.

11) Janata Dal United – Nitish’s party would get a drubbing in the elections with just 10 seats (-12). Split with BJP will cost it dear. There is a huge Modi wave in state plus party MPs have started deserting the ship. Lalu-RJD alliance will also wean away minority votes.

Others like Telangana Rashtriya Samiti and DMK could bag 8 and 6 seats respectively.

NDA under the leadership of Modi will emerge as the single largest pre-poll coalition. President would invite him to explore govt. formation opportunities. In next post we will see who is likely to support BJP / NDA and whether it can form govt.

In the meantime your thoughts please….

State / UT Seats UPA NDA Others SP BSP JDU Left  BJD AIADMK YSR TDP AAP TRS TMC
Andhra Pradesh 42 5 3 2 14 10 0 8
Arunachal Pradesh 2 1 1
Assam 14 7 5 2
Bihar 40 2 16 12 10
Jharkhand 14 4 10
Goa 2 0 2
Gujarat 26 5 21
Haryana 10 1 5 2 2
Himachal Pradesh 4 1 3
Jammu & Kashmir 6 3 1 2
Karnataka 28 14 12 1 1
Kerala 20 5 1 0 14
Madhya Pradesh 29 5 24
Chattisgarh 11 1 10
Maharashtra 48 14 28 4 2
Manipur 2 2 0
Meghalaya 2 2 0
Mizoram 1 1 0
Nagaland 1 1 0
Orissa 21 3 3 15
Punjab 13 3 10
Rajasthan 25 4 21
Sikkim 1 1 0
Tamil Nadu 39 3 3 6 27 0
Tripura 2 0 0 2
UP 80 8 30 7 14 20 1
Uttarakhand 5 1 4
West Bengal 42 1 1 15 25
Andaman 1 0 1
Daman & Diu 1 0 1
Dadra&Nagar 1 0 1
Delhi 7 0 3 4
Pondicherry 1 1 0
Lakshadweep 1 1 0
Chandigarh 1 0 0 1
Total 543 100 220 38 14 20 10 31 15 27 14 10 11 8 25
In 2009  543 225 131 50 22 21 22 22 14 9 0 6 0 2 19

NDA = BJP + Shiv Sena + Akali Dal

UPA = Congress + NCP + JMM + RLD

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